Showing posts with label Job Stimulus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Job Stimulus. Show all posts

Thursday, February 21, 2013

No Doubt Fed Stimulus will Continue

The temporary negative response to the content of the Fed minutes from its last meeting has proven to be nonsensical, as there is no doubt, and hasn't been any doubt, the global and American economy have really never exited the recession, and that bodes well for those investing in commodities, and specifically gold and silver.

It's probable that the major reason for the Federal Reserve acting like it's in conflict and confusion is for the purpose of keeping the U.S. dollar shored up, as the dollar weakening from the trillions in stimulus caused other currencies to rise against it, affecting their exports. The greenback climbed to a 5-1/2 month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday.

With unemployment jumping 20,000 last week and the Philadelphia Fed's business activity index plummeting to minus 12.5 in February, it shows factory activity has really slowed down. A reading of zero points to contraction. Last month it has plunged by minus 5.8.

Europe is another major problems the mainstream media seems to only occasionally bring up to keep the recovery narrative going, but economic conditions there continue to worsen, and there is little positive in that region in the world to look forward to in the near or medium term.

Food and energy has been rising in price, and even consumer prices outside of those soared by 0.3 percent, the largest gains since May 2011.

Some point to existing home sales as a positive, which rose 0.4 percent in January. The average price of a home has climbed 12.3 percent from a year ago.

The supposition is consumers will spend as a result, but I don't think that's really likely, other than a slight few who may do some refinancing.

A strong economy needs to be in place, or at least perceived to be in place in order for that to happen, and that bubble has burst for most consumers, and it's unlikely we'll see anything in homes that will make a significant impact on the U.S. economy.

In other words, the quantitative easing will continue from the central bank no matter what a couple of the directions may say.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Japan Approves 20 Trillion Yen Stimulus

Following the faltering and failing Keynesian practices of America and Europe, Japan announced it has approved yet another stimulus package, this one valued at over 20 trillion yen ($224 billion).

New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the goal of the stimulus is to boost annual economic growth in Japan by two percent. He also wants to add 600,000 new jobs in the process.

The usual but tired idea of government infrastructure projects as the method to grow the Japanese economy our of its ongoing recession.

Most of the money will allegedly be used in relationship to the recent tsunami and earthquake of 2011, where reconstructing the areas hit the hardest by it will be the priority.

In reality this has a lot to do with the battle of central banks, where the decision by the Federal Reserve to have open-ended stimulus has caused other competing nations to respond in kind so their currencies don't rise too high against the U.S. dollar.

That means they don't want exports to plunge, which would hurt the domestic markets of Japan and other nations.

The new prime minister, who also served in that capacity in 2006-2007, told the central bank of Japan to take whatever steps are necessary to raise the inflation rate to two percent.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Gold, Silver Purchases on the Rise


According to Bill Haynes, president of CMI Gold & Silver, there has been some major acquisitions of gold and silver by new money over the last month, with much of that coming from the fall in price on Friday, November 2.

From now on, for the most part, any pull back will be considered a buying opportunity for gold and silver, as it won't matter what type of short-term economic data brings to the table, such as the slightly positive news on unemployment Friday that temporarily drove down gold and silver prices.

The good news is even though many of the recent investors are new at the game, they have enough knowledge to know to wait for dips to buy. If it were the general population buying, it would be more disconcerting, as it would suggest we would have to start looking for some bubble conditions going forward. We're not near that level yet, and the price of silver have some way to go before the average investor starts to throw their money at the asset class, which by the time they get in will be far above today's prices.

The reason why it doesn't matter concerning the anemic economic news that is being spun as positive movement forward, is it's all about the sovereign debt problems the major economic nations face, and the refusal of government to put meaningful and honest austerity measures in place to combat the out of control spending of governments.

That means of course that stimulus spending will continue to rise exponentially, and the price of silver and gold will move up with it, as people and institutions look for safe places to put their money and to battle rising inflation.

While silver should outproduce gold over the next decade, one major situation in Asia could cause gold to jump higher than expected in the short term, which is a reference to the low gold reserves held in the general region.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Sam Zell: Stock Market 4,000 Too High


Billionaire Sam Zell, who mad his fortune in real estate, says the stock market it over 4,000 points above what it should be if not for the artificial stimulus which pushed up the price of stocks far beyond their real values.

According to Zell, if quantitative easing were removed from the economic situation, the index would plunge by over 4,000 points to land at about 9,000, based upon economic and corporate fundamentals.

"Based on the fiscal cliff and all of the headwinds, the stock market should be at 9,000 and not 14,000," Zell concluded.

The fiscal cliff refers to the combination of Republican President George Bush's tax breaks expiring while at the same time public spending is cut.

Uncertainty surrounding taxes are a major part of the reason businesses of all sizes aren't expanding, as is the renegade Democratic party and Obama, who continue to boost regulations at the expense of doing business in the country.

Combined, this weighs heavily on the present and future business climate in the United States, and businesses must base their decisions on the most accurate picture of the future they can see, using the most up-to-date data.

These ancillary issues cloud the economic picture enough to make it possible to fairly accurately see the future in any way. That is why the businesses, for the most part, aren't hiring or expanding, and why they won't until the interference from the government, as well as tax situation is resolved.

If Obama is re-elected says Zell, it'll make it harder to implement healthy economic reforms which would have a positive impact on the economy. He's right.

Zell concluded, "You're looking at capital expenditures across the board being deferred, and they are being deferred for a very good reason. They have no confidence."

Why Metals, Energy Look Attractive Going Forward


With the misguided commitment from major central banks around the world to "stimulating" the economies of the countries or regions they are based in, especially the euro zone, United States and Japan (China will probably stimulate soon), it predicates the probability that energy and base metal commodities, along with gold and silver, should push up in price over the next several years, with some possibly extending even longer, such as in the case of silver.

Even if there is a further global economic slowdown, the fallout from the stimulus efforts will start to point to resources and resource companies as one of the few viable places to place one's capital.

As measured by inflationary pressures, oil, gas and other commodities get more attractive as the U.S. dollar falls in value, as it will continue to do as money continues to be created out of thin air.

The caveat will be how much competing currencies fall in relationship to the U.S. dollar.

Successful commodity investors in the near future will be those who properly analyze the valuations of a particular commodity; getting in before it begins its upward run in price.

Some commodities at this time are overbought, while others are still available at a good price.

For example, natural gas appears to be at, or close to a bottom, so there is, for the most part over time, only one place to go, and that's up.

And even if there is still a little room to move down, the price of natural gas for long-term investors is very attractive, and those entering now should reap significant rewards over the next several years.

Oil on the other hand may be in for some rough times, as it may be on the opposite end of the spectrum, possibly ready to pull back significantly after years of high prices.

The geopolitical situation will weigh more on the prices than other factors, as many energy companies have improved operations to the point where there is a lot of oil available at lower costs than in the recent past.

So with the certainty the Europe and the United States will continue to inflate through fiat money, and Japan continuing on the course it set a couple of decades ago, there is little reason to believe a number of commodities won't continue to be among the best performers going forward, especially in precious and base
 metals, as well as in some energy segments.


 

Friday, September 14, 2012

Ron Paul Blasts QE3, Fed, Bernanke

Ron Paul took out his own economic tools and did surgery on the latest round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve - QE3.

“No one is surprised by the Fed’s action today to inject even more money into the economy through additional asset purchases. The Fed’s only solution for every problem is to print more money and provide more liquidity,” Paul said.

“Mr. Bernanke and Fed governors appear not to understand that our current economic malaise resulted directly because of the excessive credit the Fed already pumped into the system.”

Paul also said that the central bank is simply repeating its former actions, which did absolutely nothing to help the American economy.

“For all of its vaunted policy tools, the Fed now finds itself repeating the same basic action over and over in an attempt to prime the economy with more debt and credit,” Paul said. “But this latest decision to provide more quantitative easing will only prolong our economic stagnation, corrupt market signals, and encourage even more misallocation and malinvestment of resources.

“Rather than stimulating a real recovery by focusing on a strong dollar and market interest rates, the Fed’s announcement today shows a disastrous detachment from reality on the part of our central bank. Any further quantitative easing from the Fed, in whatever form, will only make our next economic crash that much more serious,” Paul noted.

The latest stimulus will entail the acquisition of $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities on a monthly basis with no time frame or limitations set upon it.

Evidently the Fed and Bernanke will continue to inject money into the economy until they start to see an improvement in the jobs market.

Since 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created, it has overseen and been the source of the fall in the value of the U.S. dollar by over 95 percent.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Fed, Bernanke Ready to Stimulate

Even though Ben Bernanke is understating the eventuality of more stimulus for the economy, it's becoming apparent from his recent statements about the weakness of the U.S. economy that it is inevitable that the Federal Reserve will again pour money into the economy.

It's only a matter of when and by what means.

Some believe Bernanke may wait until the September meeting to see if there are any positive economic effects from the continuation of Operation Twist.

But with anemic jobs creation and continuing devastating unemployment, the question is whether the Fed has the nerves to wait another couple of months before taking action.

Action could be taken at the upcoming meeting from July 31 to August 1. If they don't and the economy falters, even more extraordinary pressure will be applied as the elections approach, especially for the hapless Obama and his administration, which has been totally ineffective in helping the economy along, and rather are making it worse by wanting to increase taxes rather than cut government spending.

It idea is if the Fed waits until September they'll have a better view of whether or not Operation Twist has done any good. I would be surprised if they do wait that long.

To me, the terrible American and global economy has called Bernanke's bluff, as growth numbers from key nations like China continue to move downward, confirming the precarious state of the global economy, which has such a detrimental impact on the U.S.

So Bernanke and the other Fed heads face growing pressure. If they fail to stimulate, the fallout will be enormous for them, even though over the long term it's a disaster.

But what makes me think stimulation is around the corner is former Fed officials who have been opposing more stimulus are starting to change their viewpoint, suggesting growing political pressure from the Democrats, who are afraid of getting slaughtered in the upcoming election, whether Obama gets reelected or not.

Also significant is the fact there is no real, sustainable economic growth in America which has signaled to the Fed that it is growing fast enough on its own.

In their view that's a disaster, and pushes them towards another round of easing, whatever the mechanism for doing it will be.

I think the Fed is growing closer to stimulating, and it would be surprising if it isn't done within a week. If not, the markets will remain in turmoil because of the uncertainty surrounding whether or not there will be a stimulus.

With everything pointing towards it, I can't see what reason the Fed could give for waiting, in light of the risk of not doing it now.

Next week will be enormous heading into August.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) on Quantitative Easing

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) responded in notes to the ongoing nod of the Federal Reserve that it's going to begin quantitative easing again.

Brian Sack, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Executive Vice President, recently said at the 2010 CFA Institute Fixed Income Management Conference, that "In terms of the benefits, balance-sheet expansion appears to push financial conditions in the right direction ... in that it puts downward pressure on longer-term real interest rates and makes broader financial conditions more accommodative."

Sack was referring to the Fed acquiring mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative easing and their stimulus strategy.

Bank of America and JPMorgan are assuming the comments by Sack, and the Federal Reserve itself, are indicative that quantitative easing will begin soon, probably in November.

They said it'll have a strong impact on the secondary markets.

Sack admitted one of the many risks involved with quantitative easing is it is reasonable to assume that the effects of balance sheet expansion would diminish at some point, especially if yields were to move to extremely low levels."

Friday, September 24, 2010

Warren Buffett Losing it? Attacks Tea Party over "Anger"

When you think of Warren Buffett, the first thought that usually comes to mind is one of the greatest investors of all time, with the trained ability to be able to consume economic data in a way that he can make extremely accurate projections of how a company will perform over the long term; something a small handful of people have the skill to do. And Buffett is among the elite in history.

Buffett's problem is in his later years he has increasingly emerged as a big government backer, and as committed to Keynesianism as anyone around, and uses his popularity to justify outrageous spending, especially by his man Obama.

It makes me wonder if the years he spend building his legacy will crumble from these last years of his life, as America rises up against the things he's supporting and backing.

Recently he made the incredible statement that Americans should quit being angry at the government, and get over it. That was a direct attack on the tea party movement, no matter how it is spun later.

After all, while the majority of Americans are already fed up with the Obama administration and their destructive policies, the tea party is the outlet of that frustration, and for Buffett to outright attack them and their anger, goes beyond his pay grade, as some politician said not that long ago.

Buffett said, "...it is not helpful to have people as unhappy as they are about what’s going on in Washington.”

As Buffett has aged, he doesn't seem as coherent as he was in his youth, and he can make what appears to be contradictory statements about the same issue.

For example, he says we shouldn't be angry, but then says things like this: “The truth is we’re running a federal deficit that’s 9 percent of gross domestic product. That’s stimulative as all get out. It’s more stimulative than any policy we’ve followed since World War II.”

He also recently stated we're still in a recession, something we've continue to say here at Commodity Surge.

So the government is stimulating beyond imagination, stealing from the future of our children and grandchildren, saying they're ready to do it again via the Federal Reserve, but we need to just relax and let the government do what it wants no matter how destructive it is.

Respected or not, Buffett is just another Obama backer who drank the Kool Aid and in a state of being mesmerized, throws away a lot of what he would have opposed in the past.

In reality, it seems Buffett has been afraid of the government because he understands the monopoly it holds, and how it extends beyond its mandate.

That's why if you ever read his Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A) quarterly reports, you'll see he never attacks the outrageous taxes corporations and individuals have to endure from the government, as he knows it'll cost him and his company when he becomes a target.

Also remember that Buffett has stated more than once in the past that he prefers monopolies in the business world, and it seems by extension, he likes how the government can be played to take advantage of their monopoly in a way to advantage Berkshire Hathaway.

In the end, I think Buffett's legacy is going to suffer for his attempt to prop up Obama and his policies, which is doubtful he would put up with from any executive in his numerous companies.

Buffett isn't stupid by any stretch of the imagination, but he abandoned the ways of his father Howard Buffett long ago, who was a champion of limited government and free markets.

It would have better for Buffett if he would have stuck to what he was best at doing, and not venture into politics, which has now stained his reputation, and brought out against the mainstream of American thinking.

Maybe people should starting thinking of boycotting his companies to show them what they think about his words and actions.

If you're not convinced the directly attacked the Tea Party, you don't see what he actually said. The public anger is being expressed through the Tea party movement, and his attempt to strip the anger away from the movement is a direct attack against it, because the healthy anger is driving the vermin out of office; both Democrats and Republicans.

This is evidently too much for even Warren Buffett to put up with, and he couldn't just leave it alone like he should have.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Federal Reserve Decides to Do Nothing, About Time

The highly anticipated meeting of the FOMC resulted in a decision that unfortunately not the historic practice of the Federal Reserve, and that was to do nothing and see if the economy will heal itself before initiating any other actions.

After "stimulating" the economy with about $1.7 trillion, and getting no results, it's not surprising to see them hold off here, as the highly unpopular and outrageous spending of the Obama administration will result in a huge political swing in November.

It probably goes without saying there was pressure on the "independent" Fed to do nothing, as it would have probably made things even worse for the Democrats.

Like the last meeting, the Fed did say they stood ready to interfere in the economy again if things continue on as they are.

It's incredible to see the Fed say they're going to wait to see if the weak economy will heal itself after skewing it with the $1.7 trillion.

There can be no doubt this was a political decision, and there was no way a new stimulus or quantitative easing was going to be put into play before the November elections.

The FOMC doesn't meet again till after the elections, which at that time we'll be sure to see the usual response from the Federal Reserve.

Other than ending the Fed, it's too bad they don't do all the time what they did today, but then they wouldn't be considered necessary, as in reality they aren't.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) CEO's Copper Outlook Justified?

Not too long ago Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc's (NYSE:FCX) Chief Executive Officer Richard Adkerson said he was bullish on the outlook for copper, and the increased imports of copper into the U.S. seem to justify his assertion. Is he right?

It all depends on your outlook. There is very little private sector demand for copper, and the idea that is what's driving copper imports would be wrong.

Copper imports are rising only because the Obama administration has hinted for some time on spending even more taxpayer's dollars in another round of stimulus. This time to the tune of $50 billion for infrastructure projects.

Just like the over trillion dollars spent in the past, all this does is hide the weak economy and give the impression it is recovering, while the recession lingers on. After all, the money isn't free, somebody eventually will have to pay for it.

It's like having a deadbeat son or daughter living at home and you give them thousands of dollars to live on, then announce to your friends and family they're productive because they have capital to spend.

The reality is they're producing nothing, and even in the case of infrastructure, the Chinese did that too, and brought themselves to the brink of disaster, which still could cost them.

As soon as the prior stimulus dollars and gimmicks ended, the American economy reverted back to what it had been all along: in a recession. Spending billions more isn't going to change that.

So in the case of copper, anticipation of another stimulus is what is driving that, and it isn't based on any real demand, but the creation of artificial jobs to give the illusion there is an economic recovery.

The rest of the country has to pay for this "job creation," and it would be better to cut taxes and remove the stifling regulations holding back the free market than the government to continue to throw money down the hole.

Some clueless economists are already jumping on the stimulus bandwagon saying these copper imports prove there isn't a double dip recession.

Hopefully the politicians will have the guts to vote this down and let the economy run its course.

As far as Richard Adkerson's bullish sentiment concerning U.S. copper imports, it's based only on stimulus spending and not real copper demand.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Jim Rogers: “We never got out of the first recession”

In a telephone interview with Bloomberg, investor and author Jim Roger stated concerning the economic conditions, that “We never got out of the first recession," something we agree with heartily.

As we mention frequently, the GDP of the United States includes the stimulus spending in its results, and so makes things look better than they really are, masking the true state of the economy.

That's why most economic commentators continue to say we're in danger of a double-dip recession.

Stimulus money is leaving the economic system, simply revealing to us the state the economy has always been in.

Also in the interview, Rogers stated this concerning interest rates: “Everyone should be raising interest rates, they are too low worldwide. If the world economy gets better, that’s good for commodities demand. If the world economy does not get better, stocks are going to lose a lot as governments will print more money.”

“We never got out of the first recession,” Rogers added. “If the U.S. and Europe continue to slow down, that’s going to affect everyone. The Chinese economy is 1/10 of the U.S. and Europe and India is a quarter of China, they can’t bail us out.”

Concerning commodities, Rogers is still very bullish, and said even if they grow at a rate of 5 to 6 percent annually, they'll still surpass their all-time high, sometime in the next decade.

Rogers said he remains long on commodities.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Says More Fed Stimulus Coming

According to Chief U.S. Economist at Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius, the Federal Reserve will attempt to stimulate the economy as it continues to show it weakness.

Unsurprisingly, sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. in July, plunged to their lowest level in fifteen years, with a record drop of 27.2 percent. That works out to 3.83 million units sold annually.

June sales were downwardly revised to a 5.26 million-unit pace.

As a result, Hatzius said, “The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures.”

Probably one of most incredible statements made economically, is the casual assertion on what the figure should be. Hatzius concluded, “The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures.” In his mind, there is “no point in doing anything less than” $1 trillion.

Just a casual reference to throwing another $1 trillion of money the government doesn't own for taxpayers to have to pay in the future?

If the prior approximate $1 trillion didn't do anything, how will throwing another $1 trillion at the problem work? It won't, but it'll bring America all the closer to economic collapse than it already is.

It's no different than giving booze to an alcoholic to solve his problem. An addict can't be freed from addiction by imbibing more alcohol.

The outrageous hiring of more government workers and paying all those government employees over double what the private market makes is criminal. After all, who do you think ultimately pays for these high wages? Those who are productive.

How does the idea of adding stimulus play out within those parameters?

We must understand that the government can create nothing as far as wealth and productivity go. So when they spend, they're either taking from existing productive workers or from the productivity of future generations, which will in no way be able to pay back the spending excesses of this administration.

There will be a stimulus for sure, as the Federal Reserve has already stated they're ready to intercede again if the economy continues to weaken.

They must do that because the reasons behind their failure will be exposed, which is stimulus doesn't work, and only robs from the people of the country doing the stimulating.

If a trillion dollars hasn't already exposed that to you, I don't know how you'll ever be convinced until the word depression replaces the word recession as far as the reality we're all experiencing.

We're still in a recession, and the reason that's so is the GDP includes stimulus spending by the government, which is like taking a loan out and using it to buy stuff which produces nothing but consumption, but nothing in the business sector which will help in a sustainable manner.

The inclusion of stimulus in the GDP hides and masks this reality, the reason we hear people say the so-called recovery is slowing, when all it is is returning to its original condition before the stimulus.

Hatzius adds more bleakness to the economic scenario, saying unemployment will increase to 10 percent in 2011, up from the 9.5 percent now.

That seems to say the stimulus will be worthless, which would be true. It's best to let the market take care of these things, as it's much more efficient and will allocate financial resources to areas which will do the most good. Stimulus money doesn't do that, as the $1 trillion already spent testifies to.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Citigroup (NYSE:C) In Denial on Economy as Recession Worsens

It's hard to believe that analysts and economic commentators even use the terminology of a double-dip recession, or we're going to enter into a period of "modest gains," but that's what Citigroup (NYSE:C) analyst David Thurtell stated.

Thurtell said, "All the signs are that for the US economy, the fast part of the recovery is over, and it is now making modest gains. The gains are simply not enough to reduce unemployment.

"There are concerns about the flow-on that will have on the equity markets, so that is helping gold," he said. "There are also more signs, perhaps, that the Fed will have to do some more quantitative easing."

Amazingly, Thurtell won't even admit an economic slowdown, he only calls it a period of modest gains.

Even with the gargantuan stimulus thrown into the U.S. economy, there was never a period which could be identified as "the fast part of the recovery," which Thurtell asserts is now over.

If there was ever a fast part of a recovery, I wonder where all the job creation in that fast part was, and how long those jobs lasted.

Why do the majority of economic commentators and analysts make these outrageous comments? They fail to, or refuse to, take into account the hundreds of billions poured into the American economy, which they apply to the GDP.

Included in the GDP is government spending. So anyone that wants to create an illusion of recovery simply throws enough money at it to prop it temporarily up.

So when you read the data, the approximate $1 trillion spent by the government is identified statistically as growth. It wasn't, but it's on the books as such.

As the stimulus money begins to run out, as it is now, the appearance of a slowdown in the economy emerges, even though it never left.

Creating money out of thin air nobody produced something for, eventually must be paid back by someone, and when it's not the market creating the capital, it's hidden debt that generations far into the future will have to pay for, if in this case, they can survive the carnage coming from it.

Now we have a bigger problem because the national debt and obligations is so high it's close to impossible, if not impossible to pay for.

Not only that, but the trillion dollars did absolutely nothing to address the underlying problem, but instead has exasperated it.

Even worse, now federal government employees are paid over double what their private sector counterparts are. Who pays for those ridiculous and unearned wages? The productive workers in the private sector who will eventually be taxed to death, even worse than they are now.

The real wage gap isn't between executives and regulars, but between government workers and the private workers, who produce the capital to pay for these parasites.

In the middle of all this government failure, we have them and the Federal Reserve recently commiting to more quantitative easing if things continue as they are.

If $1 trillion doesn't solve the problem, how will more government spending solve the problem? It can't of course, and this is why the recession which never ended will continue on, and assuredly get much worse than it has been.

For Citigroup analyst David Thurtell to say we're even in a recovery, having just left one that had been growing fast, and then say will continue to be a modest recovery, shows the reasons why the banking industry itself collapsed.

If they don't understand these simple elements of the economy, how in the world can they given believable commentary and analysis about anything else?

We've been saying for months at Commodity Surge that we've never left the recession, and that it continues on. We stand by that assertion, and soon those reading this will find out we're right.

At minimum people and institutions need to have a contingency plan in place based on that possibility.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Crude Oil Prices Resume Drop on Continuing Recession

Contrary to media assertions, the recession continues and that is starting to weigh on the price of oil as it dropped to a six-week low on Friday, and will plunge again after the Labor Day weekend.

The problem is the so-called stimulus money is gone, which had masked the real condition of the economy, and that is causing the jobless claims numbers to rise to levels which reflect that, along with the falling manufacturing numbers, as represented by the release of the general economic index by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which showed a plunge of 7.7 percent this month.

Again, while seeming to be a contraction, things are just returning to what they've in reality been since the recession began as the stimulus money effects leave the economy.

The government and Federal Reserve were hoping to buy time through spending the hundreds of billions so the private sector could rebound and take their place as creators of jobs and economic growth.

But the stimulus produced a false signal which had CEOs even hailing the economic turnaround, when they were in fact the beneficiaries of taxpayer dollars, rather than demand from the marketplace.

No matter how you look at it though, we're in for a rough ride economically, as there's nothing out there to indicate we're even close to beginning a recovery, and in fact the failure of government interference is being revealed publicly to all, yet the Federal Reserve has give us their assurance they're ready to do and spend what it takes to shore up the recessionary economy again, which will cause even more devastation over the long term.

Crude oil prices and inventory are predictably responding, as the oil inventory of the U.S. surged to its highest level since 1990, according to an Energy Department report.

That means consumers are staying close to home and continuing to cut back on spending.

When taking into account the fundamentals, crude oil prices are still considered too high, and the possibility of increased demand is falling by the wayside. Nothing indicates that will change anytime soon.

In other ominous and understated economic news, Axel Weber, a council member of the European Central Bank, said the European economy may need intervention from the central bank through the end of 2010. That's not surprising, as there was no way the sovereign debt crisis, which has largely been ignored by the media after it was allegedly taken care of, has been resolved, as the sheer size of the problem couldn't be taken care of with a few debt offerings, no matter what the size of them were.

While the austerity measures taken by some nations were a good move, it staggers the mind to think they could go back to throwing money out into the economy of the region through central banks, making the problem even worse than it is.

With oil prices looking to the economy to signal where things are at, the answer is it's in bad shape, with no prospects it's going to turn around in the near future.

That means consumption, at least in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, will continue to fall, and oil prices should follow that lead.

In the peak July traveling season, joblessness and higher gas prices held consumption down, keeping demand relatively unchanged at a time it should have been soaring. Gasoline deliveries even fell slightly from last year, averaging 9.257 million barrels in July 2010, in comparison to 9.26 million in July 2009.

Stockpiles in the U.S. rose to 1.13 billion for the week ending August 13, gaining 5.3 million.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Teck (NYSE:TCK), Freeport (NYSE:FCX) Fall on Weak Economic Data

Teck Resources(NYSE:TCK) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX) fell today as jobless claims in the U.S., as expected by Commodity Surge, increased again, this time to about 500,000.

The other bad economic news was the manufacturing in the Philadelphia area dropped fro the first time in a year, according to the Federal Reserve.

With increasing confirmation the recession is continuing on, concerns over how that will impact demand for raw materials is putting downward pressure on commodity companies and miners.

The positive side for those miners with strong gold exposure is this will cause misguided politicians and governments, especially the U.S. government, to print more money and buy up its own debt, making gold an even stronger performer in the years ahead.

China has, and will continue to, be the major importer of most commodities. And they will determine much of how companies like Teck and Freeport will perform going forward.

New Jobless Claims Rise Again as Recession Continues

The idea that we ever left the recession is increasingly being realized and proven from data, especially as we see the jobless claims continue to rise now that the stimulus money is out of the picture.

What happened is the hundreds of billions of dollars only masked and covered up the ongoing recession, giving the illusion things had changed for the better.

It's like taking a pain pill and believing because you covered the symptoms of your problem, the problem itself has been taken care of.

The economy isn't going into a double-dip recession, it's simply continuing on with the recession that has in fact never left.

With the government irresponsibly hiring people in order to make it look like the employment numbers were better than we thought, that has unraveled as the private sector is letting go people, not hiring.

This is an issue because someone has to pay for those government workers, and if the private sector isn't able to do it, that only leaves the printing of more money by the Federal Reserve and buying of U.S. debt.

That is a disaster which will continue to debase the U.S. dollar and rack up even more debt the country already can't afford.

As usual, the government is only making the situation worse, and they should have left their hands off of the recession and let things run their course.

Now they're extending it by artificially propping up the data, which backfired because they were hoping to buy time in which they believed the economy would recover, and the focus wouldn't be on what they did because people would be happy things were better.

That didn't happen, and the importance of going back to limited government and getting out of the way of the private sector doing their job is being seen as vital to the future health of the United States of America.

Monday, March 29, 2010

BP (NYSE: BP) and Renewable-Energy Hoax

Solar Energy Stimulus Spending Fiasco

With the shutdown of the solar panel manufacturing plant in Frederick, Maryland, it put the spotlight on the complete hoax behind the Obama administration assertion it was going to create 700,000 renewable-energy jobs with its $80 billion in stimulus spent on the sector.

Although the Obama administration may be creating renewable-energy jobs, those jobs are primarily located in Asian countries like China and India, not in the United States. Thanks Obama for spending our tax dollars on foreign job creation; tax dollars we don't have to spend.

In his usual cluelessness, Vice President Joe Biden said the $80 billion stimulus package was creating “unprecedented growth” in the solar and wind industries.

What is happening is companies in the U.S. are receiving funds to create jobs here, while expanding exponentially in other countries.

For example, First Solar, based in Tempe, Arizona received $16.3 million in taxpayer dollars for the purpose of hiring 200 people at a plant in Ohio. But in fact, just over 70 percent of their hiring will be in Malaysia.

U.S. Suntech Power Holdings Co. received $2.1 million to put together solar panels in Arizona, but they will hire about 11,000 people in China to build them.

This isn't saying they're taking the money and running, what it's saying it they're getting the money with the thought they were hiring in the U.S., when they really never had the intentions of doing it over the long term, but were committed to Asia all along.

As the closure in Maryland shows, U.S. companies can't compete in this area, so throwing money at the industry was never going to create jobs, but probably was just another way to shore up companies in the short term so they could survive long enough to expand into Asia.

If that's not the case, then someone will have to explain how so many companies missed their projections in how many jobs it would create for the long term. Not all of these and other could be that stupid in business practices.

This is a complete hoax, and again, there's no way the government couldn't have known this was the case, unless the people involved are so inept they are ignorant. What ruined their plans I think is the quickness in which the weakness of the idea failed. It wouldn't have been noticed as much if it had been a couple of years out. Now the U.S. government needs to answer on their wasteful spending for an industry that never had a chance in America.