Silver in general is standing at a very interesting position, as it's poised to break out in the short term, while at the same time a weakening economy will play havoc with the precious metal over time.
We'll look at some myths surrounding silver in this article, as well as some of the realities inherent in silver as an investment option.
See how silver will perform during economic weakness.
Showing posts with label Economic Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic Crisis. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Citigroup (NYSE:C) Lowers Price Target on ConAgra Foods (NYSE:CAG)
ConAgra Foods (NYSE:CAG) had its price target lowered by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), as the financial giant said they see slower because because of the weakening economy.
The price target was lowered from $31 to $30 by Citigroup, according to a note to clients.
Citi maintained their "Buy" on ConAgra, although they did lower their earnings per share estimate going forward.
Investors shrugged off the news, as ConAgra rose to $22.01, gaining $0.16, or 0.73 percent, as of 1:50 PM EDT.
The price target was lowered from $31 to $30 by Citigroup, according to a note to clients.
Citi maintained their "Buy" on ConAgra, although they did lower their earnings per share estimate going forward.
Investors shrugged off the news, as ConAgra rose to $22.01, gaining $0.16, or 0.73 percent, as of 1:50 PM EDT.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Eldorado (NYSE:EGO), Barrick (NYSE:ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) Soar as Investors Flock to Gold
The realization we've never left the recession is starting to be realized by a growing number of investors, and gold miners like Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE:EGO), Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) and Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) are soaring today as gold prices continue their upward march with investors seeking safety.
Gold prices are approaching two-month highs, up to $1,240, a gain of $10.20, as of 1:15 PM EDT.
Continuing bad news concerning the economy is the major reason for the resumption in gold prices surging upward. As the stimulus money leaves the system the underlying weakness is again in the face of investors who see it did nothing but hide the economic disaster, rather than do anything to help.
And calls for more stimulus have people extremely worried as economic report after economic report, including the plunge in sales of previously-owned homes plunging, and a record low in sales of new homes, which plunged to an annual rate of 276,600, along with a 12.4 percent decline in July.
A report from the Commerce Department also revealed orders for durable goods failed to meet expectations, indicating continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Gold prices today show the future pattern, and gold mining companies will be the beneficiaries of this strong move as the disaster the economy really is becomes to be understood more fully by investors, who will increasingly use gold investments as a safe haven.
Gold prices are approaching two-month highs, up to $1,240, a gain of $10.20, as of 1:15 PM EDT.
Continuing bad news concerning the economy is the major reason for the resumption in gold prices surging upward. As the stimulus money leaves the system the underlying weakness is again in the face of investors who see it did nothing but hide the economic disaster, rather than do anything to help.
And calls for more stimulus have people extremely worried as economic report after economic report, including the plunge in sales of previously-owned homes plunging, and a record low in sales of new homes, which plunged to an annual rate of 276,600, along with a 12.4 percent decline in July.
A report from the Commerce Department also revealed orders for durable goods failed to meet expectations, indicating continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Gold prices today show the future pattern, and gold mining companies will be the beneficiaries of this strong move as the disaster the economy really is becomes to be understood more fully by investors, who will increasingly use gold investments as a safe haven.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Says More Fed Stimulus Coming
According to Chief U.S. Economist at Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius, the Federal Reserve will attempt to stimulate the economy as it continues to show it weakness.
Unsurprisingly, sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. in July, plunged to their lowest level in fifteen years, with a record drop of 27.2 percent. That works out to 3.83 million units sold annually.
June sales were downwardly revised to a 5.26 million-unit pace.
As a result, Hatzius said, “The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures.”
Probably one of most incredible statements made economically, is the casual assertion on what the figure should be. Hatzius concluded, “The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures.” In his mind, there is “no point in doing anything less than” $1 trillion.
Just a casual reference to throwing another $1 trillion of money the government doesn't own for taxpayers to have to pay in the future?
If the prior approximate $1 trillion didn't do anything, how will throwing another $1 trillion at the problem work? It won't, but it'll bring America all the closer to economic collapse than it already is.
It's no different than giving booze to an alcoholic to solve his problem. An addict can't be freed from addiction by imbibing more alcohol.
The outrageous hiring of more government workers and paying all those government employees over double what the private market makes is criminal. After all, who do you think ultimately pays for these high wages? Those who are productive.
How does the idea of adding stimulus play out within those parameters?
We must understand that the government can create nothing as far as wealth and productivity go. So when they spend, they're either taking from existing productive workers or from the productivity of future generations, which will in no way be able to pay back the spending excesses of this administration.
There will be a stimulus for sure, as the Federal Reserve has already stated they're ready to intercede again if the economy continues to weaken.
They must do that because the reasons behind their failure will be exposed, which is stimulus doesn't work, and only robs from the people of the country doing the stimulating.
If a trillion dollars hasn't already exposed that to you, I don't know how you'll ever be convinced until the word depression replaces the word recession as far as the reality we're all experiencing.
We're still in a recession, and the reason that's so is the GDP includes stimulus spending by the government, which is like taking a loan out and using it to buy stuff which produces nothing but consumption, but nothing in the business sector which will help in a sustainable manner.
The inclusion of stimulus in the GDP hides and masks this reality, the reason we hear people say the so-called recovery is slowing, when all it is is returning to its original condition before the stimulus.
Hatzius adds more bleakness to the economic scenario, saying unemployment will increase to 10 percent in 2011, up from the 9.5 percent now.
That seems to say the stimulus will be worthless, which would be true. It's best to let the market take care of these things, as it's much more efficient and will allocate financial resources to areas which will do the most good. Stimulus money doesn't do that, as the $1 trillion already spent testifies to.
Unsurprisingly, sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. in July, plunged to their lowest level in fifteen years, with a record drop of 27.2 percent. That works out to 3.83 million units sold annually.
June sales were downwardly revised to a 5.26 million-unit pace.
As a result, Hatzius said, “The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures.”
Probably one of most incredible statements made economically, is the casual assertion on what the figure should be. Hatzius concluded, “The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures.” In his mind, there is “no point in doing anything less than” $1 trillion.
Just a casual reference to throwing another $1 trillion of money the government doesn't own for taxpayers to have to pay in the future?
If the prior approximate $1 trillion didn't do anything, how will throwing another $1 trillion at the problem work? It won't, but it'll bring America all the closer to economic collapse than it already is.
It's no different than giving booze to an alcoholic to solve his problem. An addict can't be freed from addiction by imbibing more alcohol.
The outrageous hiring of more government workers and paying all those government employees over double what the private market makes is criminal. After all, who do you think ultimately pays for these high wages? Those who are productive.
How does the idea of adding stimulus play out within those parameters?
We must understand that the government can create nothing as far as wealth and productivity go. So when they spend, they're either taking from existing productive workers or from the productivity of future generations, which will in no way be able to pay back the spending excesses of this administration.
There will be a stimulus for sure, as the Federal Reserve has already stated they're ready to intercede again if the economy continues to weaken.
They must do that because the reasons behind their failure will be exposed, which is stimulus doesn't work, and only robs from the people of the country doing the stimulating.
If a trillion dollars hasn't already exposed that to you, I don't know how you'll ever be convinced until the word depression replaces the word recession as far as the reality we're all experiencing.
We're still in a recession, and the reason that's so is the GDP includes stimulus spending by the government, which is like taking a loan out and using it to buy stuff which produces nothing but consumption, but nothing in the business sector which will help in a sustainable manner.
The inclusion of stimulus in the GDP hides and masks this reality, the reason we hear people say the so-called recovery is slowing, when all it is is returning to its original condition before the stimulus.
Hatzius adds more bleakness to the economic scenario, saying unemployment will increase to 10 percent in 2011, up from the 9.5 percent now.
That seems to say the stimulus will be worthless, which would be true. It's best to let the market take care of these things, as it's much more efficient and will allocate financial resources to areas which will do the most good. Stimulus money doesn't do that, as the $1 trillion already spent testifies to.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Citigroup (NYSE:C) In Denial on Economy as Recession Worsens
It's hard to believe that analysts and economic commentators even use the terminology of a double-dip recession, or we're going to enter into a period of "modest gains," but that's what Citigroup (NYSE:C) analyst David Thurtell stated.
Thurtell said, "All the signs are that for the US economy, the fast part of the recovery is over, and it is now making modest gains. The gains are simply not enough to reduce unemployment.
"There are concerns about the flow-on that will have on the equity markets, so that is helping gold," he said. "There are also more signs, perhaps, that the Fed will have to do some more quantitative easing."
Amazingly, Thurtell won't even admit an economic slowdown, he only calls it a period of modest gains.
Even with the gargantuan stimulus thrown into the U.S. economy, there was never a period which could be identified as "the fast part of the recovery," which Thurtell asserts is now over.
If there was ever a fast part of a recovery, I wonder where all the job creation in that fast part was, and how long those jobs lasted.
Why do the majority of economic commentators and analysts make these outrageous comments? They fail to, or refuse to, take into account the hundreds of billions poured into the American economy, which they apply to the GDP.
Included in the GDP is government spending. So anyone that wants to create an illusion of recovery simply throws enough money at it to prop it temporarily up.
So when you read the data, the approximate $1 trillion spent by the government is identified statistically as growth. It wasn't, but it's on the books as such.
As the stimulus money begins to run out, as it is now, the appearance of a slowdown in the economy emerges, even though it never left.
Creating money out of thin air nobody produced something for, eventually must be paid back by someone, and when it's not the market creating the capital, it's hidden debt that generations far into the future will have to pay for, if in this case, they can survive the carnage coming from it.
Now we have a bigger problem because the national debt and obligations is so high it's close to impossible, if not impossible to pay for.
Not only that, but the trillion dollars did absolutely nothing to address the underlying problem, but instead has exasperated it.
Even worse, now federal government employees are paid over double what their private sector counterparts are. Who pays for those ridiculous and unearned wages? The productive workers in the private sector who will eventually be taxed to death, even worse than they are now.
The real wage gap isn't between executives and regulars, but between government workers and the private workers, who produce the capital to pay for these parasites.
In the middle of all this government failure, we have them and the Federal Reserve recently commiting to more quantitative easing if things continue as they are.
If $1 trillion doesn't solve the problem, how will more government spending solve the problem? It can't of course, and this is why the recession which never ended will continue on, and assuredly get much worse than it has been.
For Citigroup analyst David Thurtell to say we're even in a recovery, having just left one that had been growing fast, and then say will continue to be a modest recovery, shows the reasons why the banking industry itself collapsed.
If they don't understand these simple elements of the economy, how in the world can they given believable commentary and analysis about anything else?
We've been saying for months at Commodity Surge that we've never left the recession, and that it continues on. We stand by that assertion, and soon those reading this will find out we're right.
At minimum people and institutions need to have a contingency plan in place based on that possibility.
Thurtell said, "All the signs are that for the US economy, the fast part of the recovery is over, and it is now making modest gains. The gains are simply not enough to reduce unemployment.
"There are concerns about the flow-on that will have on the equity markets, so that is helping gold," he said. "There are also more signs, perhaps, that the Fed will have to do some more quantitative easing."
Amazingly, Thurtell won't even admit an economic slowdown, he only calls it a period of modest gains.
Even with the gargantuan stimulus thrown into the U.S. economy, there was never a period which could be identified as "the fast part of the recovery," which Thurtell asserts is now over.
If there was ever a fast part of a recovery, I wonder where all the job creation in that fast part was, and how long those jobs lasted.
Why do the majority of economic commentators and analysts make these outrageous comments? They fail to, or refuse to, take into account the hundreds of billions poured into the American economy, which they apply to the GDP.
Included in the GDP is government spending. So anyone that wants to create an illusion of recovery simply throws enough money at it to prop it temporarily up.
So when you read the data, the approximate $1 trillion spent by the government is identified statistically as growth. It wasn't, but it's on the books as such.
As the stimulus money begins to run out, as it is now, the appearance of a slowdown in the economy emerges, even though it never left.
Creating money out of thin air nobody produced something for, eventually must be paid back by someone, and when it's not the market creating the capital, it's hidden debt that generations far into the future will have to pay for, if in this case, they can survive the carnage coming from it.
Now we have a bigger problem because the national debt and obligations is so high it's close to impossible, if not impossible to pay for.
Not only that, but the trillion dollars did absolutely nothing to address the underlying problem, but instead has exasperated it.
Even worse, now federal government employees are paid over double what their private sector counterparts are. Who pays for those ridiculous and unearned wages? The productive workers in the private sector who will eventually be taxed to death, even worse than they are now.
The real wage gap isn't between executives and regulars, but between government workers and the private workers, who produce the capital to pay for these parasites.
In the middle of all this government failure, we have them and the Federal Reserve recently commiting to more quantitative easing if things continue as they are.
If $1 trillion doesn't solve the problem, how will more government spending solve the problem? It can't of course, and this is why the recession which never ended will continue on, and assuredly get much worse than it has been.
For Citigroup analyst David Thurtell to say we're even in a recovery, having just left one that had been growing fast, and then say will continue to be a modest recovery, shows the reasons why the banking industry itself collapsed.
If they don't understand these simple elements of the economy, how in the world can they given believable commentary and analysis about anything else?
We've been saying for months at Commodity Surge that we've never left the recession, and that it continues on. We stand by that assertion, and soon those reading this will find out we're right.
At minimum people and institutions need to have a contingency plan in place based on that possibility.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Crude Oil Prices Resume Drop on Continuing Recession
Contrary to media assertions, the recession continues and that is starting to weigh on the price of oil as it dropped to a six-week low on Friday, and will plunge again after the Labor Day weekend.
The problem is the so-called stimulus money is gone, which had masked the real condition of the economy, and that is causing the jobless claims numbers to rise to levels which reflect that, along with the falling manufacturing numbers, as represented by the release of the general economic index by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which showed a plunge of 7.7 percent this month.
Again, while seeming to be a contraction, things are just returning to what they've in reality been since the recession began as the stimulus money effects leave the economy.
The government and Federal Reserve were hoping to buy time through spending the hundreds of billions so the private sector could rebound and take their place as creators of jobs and economic growth.
But the stimulus produced a false signal which had CEOs even hailing the economic turnaround, when they were in fact the beneficiaries of taxpayer dollars, rather than demand from the marketplace.
No matter how you look at it though, we're in for a rough ride economically, as there's nothing out there to indicate we're even close to beginning a recovery, and in fact the failure of government interference is being revealed publicly to all, yet the Federal Reserve has give us their assurance they're ready to do and spend what it takes to shore up the recessionary economy again, which will cause even more devastation over the long term.
Crude oil prices and inventory are predictably responding, as the oil inventory of the U.S. surged to its highest level since 1990, according to an Energy Department report.
That means consumers are staying close to home and continuing to cut back on spending.
When taking into account the fundamentals, crude oil prices are still considered too high, and the possibility of increased demand is falling by the wayside. Nothing indicates that will change anytime soon.
In other ominous and understated economic news, Axel Weber, a council member of the European Central Bank, said the European economy may need intervention from the central bank through the end of 2010. That's not surprising, as there was no way the sovereign debt crisis, which has largely been ignored by the media after it was allegedly taken care of, has been resolved, as the sheer size of the problem couldn't be taken care of with a few debt offerings, no matter what the size of them were.
While the austerity measures taken by some nations were a good move, it staggers the mind to think they could go back to throwing money out into the economy of the region through central banks, making the problem even worse than it is.
With oil prices looking to the economy to signal where things are at, the answer is it's in bad shape, with no prospects it's going to turn around in the near future.
That means consumption, at least in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, will continue to fall, and oil prices should follow that lead.
In the peak July traveling season, joblessness and higher gas prices held consumption down, keeping demand relatively unchanged at a time it should have been soaring. Gasoline deliveries even fell slightly from last year, averaging 9.257 million barrels in July 2010, in comparison to 9.26 million in July 2009.
Stockpiles in the U.S. rose to 1.13 billion for the week ending August 13, gaining 5.3 million.
The problem is the so-called stimulus money is gone, which had masked the real condition of the economy, and that is causing the jobless claims numbers to rise to levels which reflect that, along with the falling manufacturing numbers, as represented by the release of the general economic index by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which showed a plunge of 7.7 percent this month.
Again, while seeming to be a contraction, things are just returning to what they've in reality been since the recession began as the stimulus money effects leave the economy.
The government and Federal Reserve were hoping to buy time through spending the hundreds of billions so the private sector could rebound and take their place as creators of jobs and economic growth.
But the stimulus produced a false signal which had CEOs even hailing the economic turnaround, when they were in fact the beneficiaries of taxpayer dollars, rather than demand from the marketplace.
No matter how you look at it though, we're in for a rough ride economically, as there's nothing out there to indicate we're even close to beginning a recovery, and in fact the failure of government interference is being revealed publicly to all, yet the Federal Reserve has give us their assurance they're ready to do and spend what it takes to shore up the recessionary economy again, which will cause even more devastation over the long term.
Crude oil prices and inventory are predictably responding, as the oil inventory of the U.S. surged to its highest level since 1990, according to an Energy Department report.
That means consumers are staying close to home and continuing to cut back on spending.
When taking into account the fundamentals, crude oil prices are still considered too high, and the possibility of increased demand is falling by the wayside. Nothing indicates that will change anytime soon.
In other ominous and understated economic news, Axel Weber, a council member of the European Central Bank, said the European economy may need intervention from the central bank through the end of 2010. That's not surprising, as there was no way the sovereign debt crisis, which has largely been ignored by the media after it was allegedly taken care of, has been resolved, as the sheer size of the problem couldn't be taken care of with a few debt offerings, no matter what the size of them were.
While the austerity measures taken by some nations were a good move, it staggers the mind to think they could go back to throwing money out into the economy of the region through central banks, making the problem even worse than it is.
With oil prices looking to the economy to signal where things are at, the answer is it's in bad shape, with no prospects it's going to turn around in the near future.
That means consumption, at least in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, will continue to fall, and oil prices should follow that lead.
In the peak July traveling season, joblessness and higher gas prices held consumption down, keeping demand relatively unchanged at a time it should have been soaring. Gasoline deliveries even fell slightly from last year, averaging 9.257 million barrels in July 2010, in comparison to 9.26 million in July 2009.
Stockpiles in the U.S. rose to 1.13 billion for the week ending August 13, gaining 5.3 million.
Friday, August 20, 2010
New Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) CEO Likes Growth Prospects of Company
Doug Oberhelman, who recently took over the reins of Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), is attempting to generate positive feelings about the company, saying he sees little chance there will be a double-dip recession, and confirms guidance for 2012 which had been given in 2009.
Oberhelman said, “We don’t think the world has ended. We think there is going to be fantastic growth in our industries in the future.”
He also said Caterpillar executives are positive about the global economy, and see it growing going forward, with little chance of another recession.
For 2012, Oberhelman said guidance continues to be earnings of $8 to $10 a share on revenue between $55 billion to $60 billion.
These comments were made in his first meeting with analysts since taking over as CEO in June.
This sounds way too optimistic to me, and doesn't take into account recent data showing the economy is either slowing extremely, or never moved out of the recession in the first place.
We have to remember that the government throwing hundreds of billions into the economy doesn't have anything to do with the underlying reasons for the recession, and as results show, once it worked its way through, the economic weakness remains.
The only reason I see for the optimism shown by Oberhelman is the comments made by the Federal Reserve that they're ready to do it all again if the economy begins to falter, and that has already started to happen.
With voters already outraged over the irresponsible government spending, it's hard to believe they'll do it all over again, but this administration and Ben Bernanke don't have any checks or balances, or restraint, when it comes to monetary policy, and that doesn't bode well for America, even if it gives a false impression we've moved out of the recession.
Oberhelman said, “We don’t think the world has ended. We think there is going to be fantastic growth in our industries in the future.”
He also said Caterpillar executives are positive about the global economy, and see it growing going forward, with little chance of another recession.
For 2012, Oberhelman said guidance continues to be earnings of $8 to $10 a share on revenue between $55 billion to $60 billion.
These comments were made in his first meeting with analysts since taking over as CEO in June.
This sounds way too optimistic to me, and doesn't take into account recent data showing the economy is either slowing extremely, or never moved out of the recession in the first place.
We have to remember that the government throwing hundreds of billions into the economy doesn't have anything to do with the underlying reasons for the recession, and as results show, once it worked its way through, the economic weakness remains.
The only reason I see for the optimism shown by Oberhelman is the comments made by the Federal Reserve that they're ready to do it all again if the economy begins to falter, and that has already started to happen.
With voters already outraged over the irresponsible government spending, it's hard to believe they'll do it all over again, but this administration and Ben Bernanke don't have any checks or balances, or restraint, when it comes to monetary policy, and that doesn't bode well for America, even if it gives a false impression we've moved out of the recession.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Teck (NYSE:TCK), Freeport (NYSE:FCX) Fall on Weak Economic Data
Teck Resources(NYSE:TCK) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX) fell today as jobless claims in the U.S., as expected by Commodity Surge, increased again, this time to about 500,000.
The other bad economic news was the manufacturing in the Philadelphia area dropped fro the first time in a year, according to the Federal Reserve.
With increasing confirmation the recession is continuing on, concerns over how that will impact demand for raw materials is putting downward pressure on commodity companies and miners.
The positive side for those miners with strong gold exposure is this will cause misguided politicians and governments, especially the U.S. government, to print more money and buy up its own debt, making gold an even stronger performer in the years ahead.
China has, and will continue to, be the major importer of most commodities. And they will determine much of how companies like Teck and Freeport will perform going forward.
The other bad economic news was the manufacturing in the Philadelphia area dropped fro the first time in a year, according to the Federal Reserve.
With increasing confirmation the recession is continuing on, concerns over how that will impact demand for raw materials is putting downward pressure on commodity companies and miners.
The positive side for those miners with strong gold exposure is this will cause misguided politicians and governments, especially the U.S. government, to print more money and buy up its own debt, making gold an even stronger performer in the years ahead.
China has, and will continue to, be the major importer of most commodities. And they will determine much of how companies like Teck and Freeport will perform going forward.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Consumer Credit Drops as US Economy Falters
Government interference in the marketplace has hidden the true weakness of the U.S. economy, and the release of the census workers from their temporary jobs, underscored the reality of the ongoing recession, as 131,000 workers were laid off.
The so-called jobless recovery that never was, has caused consumer credit to drop for the fifth month in a row, this time by 0.7 percent in June, or $1.3 billion.
In April U.S. consumer credit plunged 6.4 percent, and in May it dropped another 2.6 percent.
The lack of job creation in the private sector continues to be the impetus behind consumers pulling back on going into debt, and there is nothing in the short term that indicates this will change; as a matter a fact it'll probably get a lot worse before it begins to turn around.
Picking and choosing the economy data to focus on no longer cuts it, as even at that it brought mixed outlooks, while those that understood knew it was far from mixed, but an outright sham as far as cherry picking what the media chose to emphasize when they reported.
Not only are payrolls weak, but the housing market is almost assuredly going to go into recession again, debt levels remain high, and we haven't even heard much lately about the projected disaster of commercial real estate for the second half of 2010, which could begin at any time, as far as focusing on the issue.
With a job market that could take years to turn around, and the same with housing and commercial real estate, one does have to ask what the optimism is all about.
I think we're going to find out the economic optimism is much ado about nothing.
The so-called jobless recovery that never was, has caused consumer credit to drop for the fifth month in a row, this time by 0.7 percent in June, or $1.3 billion.
In April U.S. consumer credit plunged 6.4 percent, and in May it dropped another 2.6 percent.
The lack of job creation in the private sector continues to be the impetus behind consumers pulling back on going into debt, and there is nothing in the short term that indicates this will change; as a matter a fact it'll probably get a lot worse before it begins to turn around.
Picking and choosing the economy data to focus on no longer cuts it, as even at that it brought mixed outlooks, while those that understood knew it was far from mixed, but an outright sham as far as cherry picking what the media chose to emphasize when they reported.
Not only are payrolls weak, but the housing market is almost assuredly going to go into recession again, debt levels remain high, and we haven't even heard much lately about the projected disaster of commercial real estate for the second half of 2010, which could begin at any time, as far as focusing on the issue.
With a job market that could take years to turn around, and the same with housing and commercial real estate, one does have to ask what the optimism is all about.
I think we're going to find out the economic optimism is much ado about nothing.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Bernanke's Misguided Policies Drive Gold Prices Up
Anyone who thinks gold prices are going to plunge, better read up on Ben Bernanke and his philosophy for running the Federal Reserve, which is nothing more than printing as much money as needed to pretty much do absolutely nothing, as evidenced by the ongoing recession.
Gold prices are going to continue to go up based on nothing else but that, although there are other factors which will contribute to the price movements of gold.
It's an incredible joke to hear economic and business writers say that gold prices are going up because the Federal Reserve will act to "stimulate" the economy if needed.
As mentioned, printing and throwing money at the problem can't be equated with economic stimulation, as the last two years have shown. There has been no stimulation, just artificial props that crash once they're removed, like the tax credit for new home buyers.
For gold investors it's good news to be reminded of these foolish actions, as it guarantees gold prices will move up for some time to come, as there can be no doubt the economy will continue to sputter, and Bernanke will crank up the printing presses yet again.
It also guarantees a robust Tea Party movement, as these types of actions are what led to organic formation of the political powerhouse to begin with, as government spending continues to spiral out of control and bring the United States to the point of ruin.
This is why gold will continue to attract new investors, and why it'll hold its own against the majority of investments for some time to come.
Gold in the short term will probably continue to fluctuate, as mixed economic news continues to be the narrative, giving differing signals at the same time.
But as the market slowly realizes Europe is far from fixed, even though some are attempting to make it look like it's back to business as usual, we'll see gold get a huge push from the ongoing sovereign debt crisis as well.
The recent downgrade of Ireland's debt reminds us of the threat still inherent in the European Union, and which isn't close to being taken care of.
For gold, all of this is going to keep support under it, and once it takes off again, will probably move to record highs, as there will be very few places to put our money.
Gold prices finished up for the third day in a row, increasing to $1,195.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
Gold prices are going to continue to go up based on nothing else but that, although there are other factors which will contribute to the price movements of gold.
It's an incredible joke to hear economic and business writers say that gold prices are going up because the Federal Reserve will act to "stimulate" the economy if needed.
As mentioned, printing and throwing money at the problem can't be equated with economic stimulation, as the last two years have shown. There has been no stimulation, just artificial props that crash once they're removed, like the tax credit for new home buyers.
For gold investors it's good news to be reminded of these foolish actions, as it guarantees gold prices will move up for some time to come, as there can be no doubt the economy will continue to sputter, and Bernanke will crank up the printing presses yet again.
It also guarantees a robust Tea Party movement, as these types of actions are what led to organic formation of the political powerhouse to begin with, as government spending continues to spiral out of control and bring the United States to the point of ruin.
This is why gold will continue to attract new investors, and why it'll hold its own against the majority of investments for some time to come.
Gold in the short term will probably continue to fluctuate, as mixed economic news continues to be the narrative, giving differing signals at the same time.
But as the market slowly realizes Europe is far from fixed, even though some are attempting to make it look like it's back to business as usual, we'll see gold get a huge push from the ongoing sovereign debt crisis as well.
The recent downgrade of Ireland's debt reminds us of the threat still inherent in the European Union, and which isn't close to being taken care of.
For gold, all of this is going to keep support under it, and once it takes off again, will probably move to record highs, as there will be very few places to put our money.
Gold prices finished up for the third day in a row, increasing to $1,195.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Consumer Sentiment Drops to 11-Month Low
A survey conducted by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan named Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, found consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year.
This is an extraordinary turn of events over just a month, as last month the highest level of consumer sentiment had been reached in almost 2-1/2 years. When it is built more on wishful thinking and hope rather than realities of the economy, these types of huge swings can happen quickly, and it of course now has.
In June the numbers were at 76.0, while in July the plunged to 66.5. Economists had been looking for 74.5.
Director of the surveys, Richard Curtin said this, "Income and job prospects were extraordinarily weak and those bleak prospects have made consumers much more cautious spenders."
After the Democrat-controlled Congress stopped their irresponsible spending spree, the reality the economy wasn't growing but was rather being artificially propped up is setting in, and consumers are understanding we've never left the recession, and there hasn't been a recovery.
Consumers also said in the surveys that they aren't going to be buying any big ticket items like automobiles in the foreseeable future, showing again the hype about a recovery was largely reported by the mainstream media as a reality to prop up Obama and the Democrats, rather than hard reporting on the fact that we're still in a recession.
This is an extraordinary turn of events over just a month, as last month the highest level of consumer sentiment had been reached in almost 2-1/2 years. When it is built more on wishful thinking and hope rather than realities of the economy, these types of huge swings can happen quickly, and it of course now has.
In June the numbers were at 76.0, while in July the plunged to 66.5. Economists had been looking for 74.5.
Director of the surveys, Richard Curtin said this, "Income and job prospects were extraordinarily weak and those bleak prospects have made consumers much more cautious spenders."
After the Democrat-controlled Congress stopped their irresponsible spending spree, the reality the economy wasn't growing but was rather being artificially propped up is setting in, and consumers are understanding we've never left the recession, and there hasn't been a recovery.
Consumers also said in the surveys that they aren't going to be buying any big ticket items like automobiles in the foreseeable future, showing again the hype about a recovery was largely reported by the mainstream media as a reality to prop up Obama and the Democrats, rather than hard reporting on the fact that we're still in a recession.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Take Alcoa's (NYSE:AA) Performance with a Grain of Salt
It seems everyone is touting the performance of Alcoa (NYSE:AA) as a sign the economic recovery is in full swing, a very dubious assertion and conclusion by those who'll end up eating those words in the future.
This isn't to say Alcoa hasn't done some good things to generate a decent quarter, just that with aluminum prices still down, it was cost-cutting measures which helped them with earnings, not margins.
While that's good for management, it doesn't take care of the demand factor, which is what will drive the prices of aluminum. Until aluminum prices start to rise again, there's not a lot more Alcoa can do but wait things out.
To say the earnings of Alcoa in the latest quarter point toward a recovery can't even been taken seriously in light of aluminum prices. Cutting costs doesn't point to increased demand, no matter what the company and analysts' assert.
Until you see aluminum prices going up, the so-called economic indicator of Alcoa is largely irrelevant.
This isn't to say Alcoa hasn't done some good things to generate a decent quarter, just that with aluminum prices still down, it was cost-cutting measures which helped them with earnings, not margins.
While that's good for management, it doesn't take care of the demand factor, which is what will drive the prices of aluminum. Until aluminum prices start to rise again, there's not a lot more Alcoa can do but wait things out.
To say the earnings of Alcoa in the latest quarter point toward a recovery can't even been taken seriously in light of aluminum prices. Cutting costs doesn't point to increased demand, no matter what the company and analysts' assert.
Until you see aluminum prices going up, the so-called economic indicator of Alcoa is largely irrelevant.
Friday, July 2, 2010
US Economy Loses Another 125,000 Jobs in June
As another 125,000 jobs were lost in the American economy in June, questions concerning whether or not the recession has ever ended continue to grow.
The attempt to spin the fall in the unemployment rate from 9.7 percent to 9.5 percent as a positive was neglected by most, as it only signaled people quit looking for jobs, not that jobs were being created.
All this is after over a $1 trillion was thrown out their to "stimulate" the economy. That has completely failed, and the assertion it would have been worse if it hadn't been done isn't provable, and probably false.
What has really happened is it allowed things to extend longer than they should have, and so what should have been allowed to fail wasn't allowed to fail, and now we're going to have to start dealing with the real economy, which is being revealed to be as weak as ever.
One example of that is the tax credit for new home buyers, which after it ran out showed there was little real demand, and consequently sales plunged by about a third once the program ended.
This is why the government and Federal Reserve need to quit interfering and allow the markets to adjust and take care of business, as they know how to adopt strategy and adapt to the economic realities they face, and government interference only skews the market and makes it harder to analyze and work within because of the huge influx of money which shouldn't have been there in the first place.
Once it runs out, like it has now, the market can than look at the real conditions out there and respond accordingly. This is why stimulus programs have historically extended difficult economic times, as they get in the way of those that know how to respond to and handle them: business.
So when it is said that the recovery isn't as strong as expected, that's really not true. What's true is the illusion and fantasy created by distributing printed money into the marketplace has crumbled, and the real condition of the economy is being revealed.
This is why the private sector is creating very little jobs and the government is, as it's simply spending money hiring workers they don't need in able to make the economy look stronger than it is.
The problem with that of course is there are few new jobs and real wealth being created in the private sector to pay for those government jobs, which pay far above market wages as it is, even though they aren't needed in the first place.
As Margaret Thatcher wisely said years ago, the problem with socialism is eventually you run out of someone else's money.
That's what's happening now, as the Obama administration attempted to play that game in hopes the private sector would pick up in job creation. Now that it hasn't, they've created all these government jobs no one can pay for, and now face the problem of further debt because of it.
The attempt to spin the fall in the unemployment rate from 9.7 percent to 9.5 percent as a positive was neglected by most, as it only signaled people quit looking for jobs, not that jobs were being created.
All this is after over a $1 trillion was thrown out their to "stimulate" the economy. That has completely failed, and the assertion it would have been worse if it hadn't been done isn't provable, and probably false.
What has really happened is it allowed things to extend longer than they should have, and so what should have been allowed to fail wasn't allowed to fail, and now we're going to have to start dealing with the real economy, which is being revealed to be as weak as ever.
One example of that is the tax credit for new home buyers, which after it ran out showed there was little real demand, and consequently sales plunged by about a third once the program ended.
This is why the government and Federal Reserve need to quit interfering and allow the markets to adjust and take care of business, as they know how to adopt strategy and adapt to the economic realities they face, and government interference only skews the market and makes it harder to analyze and work within because of the huge influx of money which shouldn't have been there in the first place.
Once it runs out, like it has now, the market can than look at the real conditions out there and respond accordingly. This is why stimulus programs have historically extended difficult economic times, as they get in the way of those that know how to respond to and handle them: business.
So when it is said that the recovery isn't as strong as expected, that's really not true. What's true is the illusion and fantasy created by distributing printed money into the marketplace has crumbled, and the real condition of the economy is being revealed.
This is why the private sector is creating very little jobs and the government is, as it's simply spending money hiring workers they don't need in able to make the economy look stronger than it is.
The problem with that of course is there are few new jobs and real wealth being created in the private sector to pay for those government jobs, which pay far above market wages as it is, even though they aren't needed in the first place.
As Margaret Thatcher wisely said years ago, the problem with socialism is eventually you run out of someone else's money.
That's what's happening now, as the Obama administration attempted to play that game in hopes the private sector would pick up in job creation. Now that it hasn't, they've created all these government jobs no one can pay for, and now face the problem of further debt because of it.
Oil Prices Fall Before Busy Holiday Weekend
For the fourth day in a row, oil prices fell on Thursday, as concerns over the economy could keep people closer to home, not only on this busiest of summer travel times, but throughout the rest of the summer as well.
There's really little to justify any optimism in the economic conditions we face, a the majority of economic data confirms we're either slowing down in growth, or, which is more likely, really never experienced any real growth, other than the government printing money and artificially propping up certain segments of the market in hopes it would buy enough time for a recovery to happen.
The government has lost that bet, and consumers know they need to be careful how they spend their money in light of economic uncertainties, which continue on.
New housing starts have plummeted, construction is down, jobless claims are up and homebuyers signing contracts also dropped in May, confirming fears of how shaky the economy really is.
Travel is one of the few things consumers can manage, and we're probably going to see a lot less of it this summer season, and oil prices will remain under downward pressure as a result.
There's really little to justify any optimism in the economic conditions we face, a the majority of economic data confirms we're either slowing down in growth, or, which is more likely, really never experienced any real growth, other than the government printing money and artificially propping up certain segments of the market in hopes it would buy enough time for a recovery to happen.
The government has lost that bet, and consumers know they need to be careful how they spend their money in light of economic uncertainties, which continue on.
New housing starts have plummeted, construction is down, jobless claims are up and homebuyers signing contracts also dropped in May, confirming fears of how shaky the economy really is.
Travel is one of the few things consumers can manage, and we're probably going to see a lot less of it this summer season, and oil prices will remain under downward pressure as a result.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Jim Rogers Long on Commodities
Jim Rogers has been sounding the alarm a long time on the global economy, saying the economic problems will continue as long at there is too much debt and too much reliance upon consumption.
“I’m short stocks and long commodities,” Rogers said in a phone interview. “America of all things they think the solution to too much debt and too much consumption is more debt and more consumption. Which means they are going to print even more money.”
That means a continuing debasement of the currency, and no lasting solutions, as printing money is just another way of kicking the can down the road and passing the problem onto someone else.
Rogers has also said he has no intention of selling his gold.
“I’m short stocks and long commodities,” Rogers said in a phone interview. “America of all things they think the solution to too much debt and too much consumption is more debt and more consumption. Which means they are going to print even more money.”
That means a continuing debasement of the currency, and no lasting solutions, as printing money is just another way of kicking the can down the road and passing the problem onto someone else.
Rogers has also said he has no intention of selling his gold.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Rand Paul, Economics, and Why They Fear Him
An article from a Keynesian attempted to make Rand Paul look like a clueless idiot when it comes to his style of economics, which the writer hates.
Here's one thing David Weidner said about Paul in what he believes Paul's economic vision is for America:
"It's easier to imagine than you might think. Until 1933, there was no Securities and Exchange Commission, no Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve was a nascent, inactive and poor regulator. It's different now in that the Fed is no longer new.
"The decade that preceded the creation of the SEC and FDIC was not too far from the vision Paul and his kind want to see again: markets full of speculation, manipulation and unprecedented leverage through investment trusts -- a kind of mutual fund on steroids that promised to give investors access to an ever-inflating stocks market. We were on the gold standard. The U.S. had a balanced budget policy. It was Paul's kind of market."
I just want to mention one quick thing about the above before getting into the reason behind Weidner's tortured fear of Rand Paul.
In the first paragraph quoted, it's obvious Weidner expects no one to understand the ineptness and idiocy of the Federal Reserve and how it reacted to the housing market, and what is has evolved to today. For him to say the Federal Reserve of old "was a nascent, inactive and poor regulator. It's different now in that the Fed is no longer new," is almost beyond believe.
The Federal Reserve is no different now than it was back when it started, except it prints even more money than ever before in history, and is even more crooked, ineffective and dangerous. That doesn't include the secrecy surrounded it that is protected by politicians.
He even says the poor performance of the Fed in the crisis (which he now evidently admits to) doesn't "explain the behavior of big banks which, without regulation, loaned billions to investors to speculate in the market."
It doesn't explain the failure of the Fed? Who does he think supplied the banks with the billions?
Anyway, as far as Rand Paul, it shows the underlying panic and fear about a candidate like him? Why? Because he's the first to emerge with a real chance to win the Senate seat. He was leading his Democratic opponent by almost the same margin he won over his primary opponent, by about 59 percent to 35 percent.
This of course has driven the liberals and Democrats crazy (and some Republicans), because he could be the first of many, and his primary victory gave others hope, and that could lead to some key victories for some that could change the course of American politics for years to come, and America itself. That's what Rand Paul represents, and why on a national level the attacks are seemingly out of proportion for someone running for a Senate seat.
In other words, it's an attempt to kill what the tea party represents at its birth, as if they can get rid of Paul by presenting him as a nut and out of tune with average Americans, they can then use those same tactics to go after those that follow him.
Imagine a solid group of lawmakers like Rand Paul inhabiting Washington, and the past practices of Politicians would be over. There would be no backroom deals which they didn't believe in to allow dubious legislation to go forth. There could be the strong possibilities of repealing legislation like Obamacare, which Americans by a majority didn't want, but was forced upon them.
Bottom line is Rand Paul represents what the Tea Party stands for, and that is a threat to those whose only faith seems to be in government, and the idea of someone coming in to limit their daddy is just too much for many to take.
The attacks on Paul will continue, but others are starting to rise up after his primary victory, and that could deflect some of the focus that is on Paul.
Rand Paul is more connected to what most Americans want and stand for than the vast majority of politicians, and to see him gain victory as a Senator would be great for America, and hopefully a significant number will follow him and win in their races; if not this election, in many elections to come.
Again, that's what people fear in Rand Paul, and why many will do almost anything to attempt to defeat him in November.
For the sake of our economic future and freedoms, I hope he wildly succeeds.
Here's one thing David Weidner said about Paul in what he believes Paul's economic vision is for America:
"It's easier to imagine than you might think. Until 1933, there was no Securities and Exchange Commission, no Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve was a nascent, inactive and poor regulator. It's different now in that the Fed is no longer new.
"The decade that preceded the creation of the SEC and FDIC was not too far from the vision Paul and his kind want to see again: markets full of speculation, manipulation and unprecedented leverage through investment trusts -- a kind of mutual fund on steroids that promised to give investors access to an ever-inflating stocks market. We were on the gold standard. The U.S. had a balanced budget policy. It was Paul's kind of market."
I just want to mention one quick thing about the above before getting into the reason behind Weidner's tortured fear of Rand Paul.
In the first paragraph quoted, it's obvious Weidner expects no one to understand the ineptness and idiocy of the Federal Reserve and how it reacted to the housing market, and what is has evolved to today. For him to say the Federal Reserve of old "was a nascent, inactive and poor regulator. It's different now in that the Fed is no longer new," is almost beyond believe.
The Federal Reserve is no different now than it was back when it started, except it prints even more money than ever before in history, and is even more crooked, ineffective and dangerous. That doesn't include the secrecy surrounded it that is protected by politicians.
He even says the poor performance of the Fed in the crisis (which he now evidently admits to) doesn't "explain the behavior of big banks which, without regulation, loaned billions to investors to speculate in the market."
It doesn't explain the failure of the Fed? Who does he think supplied the banks with the billions?
Anyway, as far as Rand Paul, it shows the underlying panic and fear about a candidate like him? Why? Because he's the first to emerge with a real chance to win the Senate seat. He was leading his Democratic opponent by almost the same margin he won over his primary opponent, by about 59 percent to 35 percent.
This of course has driven the liberals and Democrats crazy (and some Republicans), because he could be the first of many, and his primary victory gave others hope, and that could lead to some key victories for some that could change the course of American politics for years to come, and America itself. That's what Rand Paul represents, and why on a national level the attacks are seemingly out of proportion for someone running for a Senate seat.
In other words, it's an attempt to kill what the tea party represents at its birth, as if they can get rid of Paul by presenting him as a nut and out of tune with average Americans, they can then use those same tactics to go after those that follow him.
Imagine a solid group of lawmakers like Rand Paul inhabiting Washington, and the past practices of Politicians would be over. There would be no backroom deals which they didn't believe in to allow dubious legislation to go forth. There could be the strong possibilities of repealing legislation like Obamacare, which Americans by a majority didn't want, but was forced upon them.
Bottom line is Rand Paul represents what the Tea Party stands for, and that is a threat to those whose only faith seems to be in government, and the idea of someone coming in to limit their daddy is just too much for many to take.
The attacks on Paul will continue, but others are starting to rise up after his primary victory, and that could deflect some of the focus that is on Paul.
Rand Paul is more connected to what most Americans want and stand for than the vast majority of politicians, and to see him gain victory as a Senator would be great for America, and hopefully a significant number will follow him and win in their races; if not this election, in many elections to come.
Again, that's what people fear in Rand Paul, and why many will do almost anything to attempt to defeat him in November.
For the sake of our economic future and freedoms, I hope he wildly succeeds.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Oil, Unemployment and Economic Recovery
Excuses being prepared for why an economic recovery was reported as being real
Everywhere I read, I continually hear what sounds like excuses for why the so-called recovery won't be continuing on. Now I have no doubt there is no economic recovery, and the most recent excuse for that, from the mainstream media perspective, is the increasing price of oil.
Before we get into that, think for a moment if you're a consistent reader of economic news, on how many times over the last several months you've heard the term "unexpected" used when referring to economic data.
The latest "unexpected" referred to the number of new unemployment claims which were of course, "unexpected.
Why is it this way? That's easy. Reporters for mainstream media, and some of the sycophants of the Obama administration simply can't think in terms of there being no recovery after the trillions being spent to make sure there is one.
That would mean the government has failed, and they should have listened to those who told them and other that we should allow the market to take care of the problem and to leave their hands off of it.
Now for oil, it is rising in anticipation of what the industry is hoping is a robust summer vacation time for travelers, but I'm highly suspicious of that being what emerges. I think people will stay closer to home and continue to do more local and inexpensive activities.
So the assumption that oil will continue to rise in price can't be a certainty because of the continuing weak economy around the world, and especially in America.
what is happening, in my estimation, is mainstream media around the world are preparing to explain their failure in identifying the outrageous spending by governments and central banks and how it has been a disaster which future generations will have to pay for with almost no results. Of course they did identify it, but it'll be spun as something they didn't see, and are raising a bunch of bogeyman like oil and other "unexpected" events which brought their faulty conclusions into the light.
Of course the Keynesian economists are already preparing the same strategy, as they're made to look like the complete idiots they are, as they as a group supported the outrageous government spending which Keynesian economics is founded upon, and of course will be exposed as the complete failure it has always been; it just takes years for it to be exposed as debt is piled on, taxes are raised and money printed which can no longer cover up the hoax that it is.
Now other commodities are also being added to the mix as to why there may be economic problems ahead of us, but that misses the point. A number of economists and others have pointed out that printing money will result in inflation. Now that inflation is coming, the analysis is higher prices could keep the economic recovery from happening.
Another factor is demand, which always pushes prices higher if the demand is strong and supply weak, and that has been predictable for a long time.
All of this is saying the hoopla and stupidity of mainstream media in promoting the lie that we're in a recovery when in fact we haven't even began a recovery, has them scrambling to explain why that isn't so after reporting so faithfully on behalf of the Obama administration.
In other words: damage control. All the excessive government spending was for one reason, and that was an attempt to buy time in hopes there would be a legitimate recovery which would cover up the outrageous behavior of politicians, who for populist reasons allowed the outrage to continue, with little chance of it having a chance to succeed, although the politicians didn't know that, but there advisers and those in economic positions as well.
Now the mainstream media is positioning themselves in an attempt to keep from looking like complete buffoons in the matter, but it is far too late for that, as they committed to quickly, too long and too deeply to what was coming out of the White House concerning the alleged recovery, and now they'll have to again pay the price for becoming increasingly irrelevant concerning being legitimate sources of news, and more the parrots they've sadly become.
Everywhere I read, I continually hear what sounds like excuses for why the so-called recovery won't be continuing on. Now I have no doubt there is no economic recovery, and the most recent excuse for that, from the mainstream media perspective, is the increasing price of oil.
Before we get into that, think for a moment if you're a consistent reader of economic news, on how many times over the last several months you've heard the term "unexpected" used when referring to economic data.
The latest "unexpected" referred to the number of new unemployment claims which were of course, "unexpected.
Why is it this way? That's easy. Reporters for mainstream media, and some of the sycophants of the Obama administration simply can't think in terms of there being no recovery after the trillions being spent to make sure there is one.
That would mean the government has failed, and they should have listened to those who told them and other that we should allow the market to take care of the problem and to leave their hands off of it.
Now for oil, it is rising in anticipation of what the industry is hoping is a robust summer vacation time for travelers, but I'm highly suspicious of that being what emerges. I think people will stay closer to home and continue to do more local and inexpensive activities.
So the assumption that oil will continue to rise in price can't be a certainty because of the continuing weak economy around the world, and especially in America.
what is happening, in my estimation, is mainstream media around the world are preparing to explain their failure in identifying the outrageous spending by governments and central banks and how it has been a disaster which future generations will have to pay for with almost no results. Of course they did identify it, but it'll be spun as something they didn't see, and are raising a bunch of bogeyman like oil and other "unexpected" events which brought their faulty conclusions into the light.
Of course the Keynesian economists are already preparing the same strategy, as they're made to look like the complete idiots they are, as they as a group supported the outrageous government spending which Keynesian economics is founded upon, and of course will be exposed as the complete failure it has always been; it just takes years for it to be exposed as debt is piled on, taxes are raised and money printed which can no longer cover up the hoax that it is.
Now other commodities are also being added to the mix as to why there may be economic problems ahead of us, but that misses the point. A number of economists and others have pointed out that printing money will result in inflation. Now that inflation is coming, the analysis is higher prices could keep the economic recovery from happening.
Another factor is demand, which always pushes prices higher if the demand is strong and supply weak, and that has been predictable for a long time.
All of this is saying the hoopla and stupidity of mainstream media in promoting the lie that we're in a recovery when in fact we haven't even began a recovery, has them scrambling to explain why that isn't so after reporting so faithfully on behalf of the Obama administration.
In other words: damage control. All the excessive government spending was for one reason, and that was an attempt to buy time in hopes there would be a legitimate recovery which would cover up the outrageous behavior of politicians, who for populist reasons allowed the outrage to continue, with little chance of it having a chance to succeed, although the politicians didn't know that, but there advisers and those in economic positions as well.
Now the mainstream media is positioning themselves in an attempt to keep from looking like complete buffoons in the matter, but it is far too late for that, as they committed to quickly, too long and too deeply to what was coming out of the White House concerning the alleged recovery, and now they'll have to again pay the price for becoming increasingly irrelevant concerning being legitimate sources of news, and more the parrots they've sadly become.
US Jobless Claims Rise Last Week
I always include this as part of the economic data talked about here on Commodity Surge, as the inclusion of the term unexpected, again, has been applied to the increase, in this case, of jobless claims.
Every time this is said, it's a form of manipulation to imply it's a shock that things are bad, when in fact there really has never been a true recovery, and we're still in the midst of a recession. This is why the term unexpected is used, to make it look like it's not the norm, when if fact it actually is.
Anyway, the number of jobless claims rose by 18,000 to reach 460,000 last week ending on April 3, according to data released from the Labor Department.
Analysts were surprised by the data, but I'm not sure why. Are they believing their own hype and wishful thinking? Are they in complete denial? It seems so.
This isn't rocket science, and the idea we have turned the corner in the recession is one that is based on theory and not reality, as these jobless claims numbers show. Quit pretending it's unexpected, as you can only save that word so many times before you look incompetent or like you're outright lying.
Every time this is said, it's a form of manipulation to imply it's a shock that things are bad, when in fact there really has never been a true recovery, and we're still in the midst of a recession. This is why the term unexpected is used, to make it look like it's not the norm, when if fact it actually is.
Anyway, the number of jobless claims rose by 18,000 to reach 460,000 last week ending on April 3, according to data released from the Labor Department.
Analysts were surprised by the data, but I'm not sure why. Are they believing their own hype and wishful thinking? Are they in complete denial? It seems so.
This isn't rocket science, and the idea we have turned the corner in the recession is one that is based on theory and not reality, as these jobless claims numbers show. Quit pretending it's unexpected, as you can only save that word so many times before you look incompetent or like you're outright lying.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Marc Faber: US Bankrupt 10 Years
Marc Faber - US going bankrupt
Marc Faber states in about 10 years over 35 percent of tax revenues collected in the United States will have to be used to pay off the U.S. debt.
“Maximum within 10 years time more than 35% of tax revenues will have to be used to pay the interest on the government debt and then you are in trouble – because then there will be not enough money out of the budget to pay for other stuff. I’m convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow. And before they go bankrupt, they’ll print money, and then you get high inflation rates, you have a depression and eventually they’ll go to war,” said Faber
He also believes the credit rating of the U.S. could fall below its top rated 'A' status, especially if the economy grows much slower than estimates, and the more information that comes out, the more a reality that seems to be.
Inflation is coming, it's only a matter of when it becomes noticeable. Some prices are already significantly higher, but they're balanced by the drop in others. Pretty soon that scenario won't be able to survive in the realities ahead of us, and then the unthinkable will happen.
Marc Faber - US going bankrupt
Marc Faber states in about 10 years over 35 percent of tax revenues collected in the United States will have to be used to pay off the U.S. debt.
“Maximum within 10 years time more than 35% of tax revenues will have to be used to pay the interest on the government debt and then you are in trouble – because then there will be not enough money out of the budget to pay for other stuff. I’m convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow. And before they go bankrupt, they’ll print money, and then you get high inflation rates, you have a depression and eventually they’ll go to war,” said Faber
He also believes the credit rating of the U.S. could fall below its top rated 'A' status, especially if the economy grows much slower than estimates, and the more information that comes out, the more a reality that seems to be.
Inflation is coming, it's only a matter of when it becomes noticeable. Some prices are already significantly higher, but they're balanced by the drop in others. Pretty soon that scenario won't be able to survive in the realities ahead of us, and then the unthinkable will happen.
Marc Faber - US going bankrupt
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Nouriel Roubini: American Economy Terrible Shape
Nouriel Roubini: American Economy Terrible
According to New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, the big numbers put up in the fourth-quarter were virtually meaningless, and the 5.7 percent economic growth was bad news when taking into consideration the actual facts relating to the data.
For example, most of the 5.7 percent "growth" is attributed to replenishing inventories, which when that is set aside, it only came to a little more than a growth rate of 2.2 percent, with Roubini saying he believes it'll be much worse in the last half of 2010, where he sees economic expansion at an anemic 1.5 percent growth rate.
Talking to Bloomberg Television from the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Nourini said concerning the growth numbers, “The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor. I think we are in trouble.”
Almost all the growth was attributed to one time events according to Roubini, and he sees this as a disaster going forward for the country.
Bizarrely, even Roubini adds while we won't be technically in a recession, it'll feel like a recession. In other words, we're going to be in a recession but he doesn't want to admit it so he doesn't make the Obama administration look like the disaster they really are with the economy.
Along with replenishing inventory, just about the rest of what was called economic growth was artificial, being based on stimulus money rather than increased demand for products and services.
In even worse news, Roubini stated unemployment is going to rise beyond the official 10 percent now, generating more problems for Obama and society at large.
Nouriel Roubini: American Economy Terrible
According to New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, the big numbers put up in the fourth-quarter were virtually meaningless, and the 5.7 percent economic growth was bad news when taking into consideration the actual facts relating to the data.
For example, most of the 5.7 percent "growth" is attributed to replenishing inventories, which when that is set aside, it only came to a little more than a growth rate of 2.2 percent, with Roubini saying he believes it'll be much worse in the last half of 2010, where he sees economic expansion at an anemic 1.5 percent growth rate.
Talking to Bloomberg Television from the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Nourini said concerning the growth numbers, “The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor. I think we are in trouble.”
Almost all the growth was attributed to one time events according to Roubini, and he sees this as a disaster going forward for the country.
Bizarrely, even Roubini adds while we won't be technically in a recession, it'll feel like a recession. In other words, we're going to be in a recession but he doesn't want to admit it so he doesn't make the Obama administration look like the disaster they really are with the economy.
Along with replenishing inventory, just about the rest of what was called economic growth was artificial, being based on stimulus money rather than increased demand for products and services.
In even worse news, Roubini stated unemployment is going to rise beyond the official 10 percent now, generating more problems for Obama and society at large.
Nouriel Roubini: American Economy Terrible
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