A report from Nordea Bank AB said they see oil reaching $100 a barrel by 2012, based on their belief there will be an economic recovery and growth in 2011.
Estimates for the company have oil prices averaging $79 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2010, increasing to $85.75 in 2011, and to average $102.50 in 2012.
Nordea analyst Thina Saltvedt, said in the report, "In the short term, there is a risk that prices may fall below the underlying trend as fears of a new recession in the U.S. may intensify and weigh on risk appetite. In the medium term, oil prices may surprise on the upside if the rebound in the world economy and the demand for oil is stronger and the increase is more rapid than expected."
Nordea also feels the extra oil capacity of OPEC will drop near the end of 2011, and at that time they believe economic growth will be starting to take off, driving oil prices up.
At that time they also think major oil fields will have pressure upon them to develop even quicker in response to increased demand.
Showing posts with label Oil Prices Today. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil Prices Today. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 23, 2010
Crude Oil Prices Resume Drop on Continuing Recession
Contrary to media assertions, the recession continues and that is starting to weigh on the price of oil as it dropped to a six-week low on Friday, and will plunge again after the Labor Day weekend.
The problem is the so-called stimulus money is gone, which had masked the real condition of the economy, and that is causing the jobless claims numbers to rise to levels which reflect that, along with the falling manufacturing numbers, as represented by the release of the general economic index by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which showed a plunge of 7.7 percent this month.
Again, while seeming to be a contraction, things are just returning to what they've in reality been since the recession began as the stimulus money effects leave the economy.
The government and Federal Reserve were hoping to buy time through spending the hundreds of billions so the private sector could rebound and take their place as creators of jobs and economic growth.
But the stimulus produced a false signal which had CEOs even hailing the economic turnaround, when they were in fact the beneficiaries of taxpayer dollars, rather than demand from the marketplace.
No matter how you look at it though, we're in for a rough ride economically, as there's nothing out there to indicate we're even close to beginning a recovery, and in fact the failure of government interference is being revealed publicly to all, yet the Federal Reserve has give us their assurance they're ready to do and spend what it takes to shore up the recessionary economy again, which will cause even more devastation over the long term.
Crude oil prices and inventory are predictably responding, as the oil inventory of the U.S. surged to its highest level since 1990, according to an Energy Department report.
That means consumers are staying close to home and continuing to cut back on spending.
When taking into account the fundamentals, crude oil prices are still considered too high, and the possibility of increased demand is falling by the wayside. Nothing indicates that will change anytime soon.
In other ominous and understated economic news, Axel Weber, a council member of the European Central Bank, said the European economy may need intervention from the central bank through the end of 2010. That's not surprising, as there was no way the sovereign debt crisis, which has largely been ignored by the media after it was allegedly taken care of, has been resolved, as the sheer size of the problem couldn't be taken care of with a few debt offerings, no matter what the size of them were.
While the austerity measures taken by some nations were a good move, it staggers the mind to think they could go back to throwing money out into the economy of the region through central banks, making the problem even worse than it is.
With oil prices looking to the economy to signal where things are at, the answer is it's in bad shape, with no prospects it's going to turn around in the near future.
That means consumption, at least in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, will continue to fall, and oil prices should follow that lead.
In the peak July traveling season, joblessness and higher gas prices held consumption down, keeping demand relatively unchanged at a time it should have been soaring. Gasoline deliveries even fell slightly from last year, averaging 9.257 million barrels in July 2010, in comparison to 9.26 million in July 2009.
Stockpiles in the U.S. rose to 1.13 billion for the week ending August 13, gaining 5.3 million.
The problem is the so-called stimulus money is gone, which had masked the real condition of the economy, and that is causing the jobless claims numbers to rise to levels which reflect that, along with the falling manufacturing numbers, as represented by the release of the general economic index by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which showed a plunge of 7.7 percent this month.
Again, while seeming to be a contraction, things are just returning to what they've in reality been since the recession began as the stimulus money effects leave the economy.
The government and Federal Reserve were hoping to buy time through spending the hundreds of billions so the private sector could rebound and take their place as creators of jobs and economic growth.
But the stimulus produced a false signal which had CEOs even hailing the economic turnaround, when they were in fact the beneficiaries of taxpayer dollars, rather than demand from the marketplace.
No matter how you look at it though, we're in for a rough ride economically, as there's nothing out there to indicate we're even close to beginning a recovery, and in fact the failure of government interference is being revealed publicly to all, yet the Federal Reserve has give us their assurance they're ready to do and spend what it takes to shore up the recessionary economy again, which will cause even more devastation over the long term.
Crude oil prices and inventory are predictably responding, as the oil inventory of the U.S. surged to its highest level since 1990, according to an Energy Department report.
That means consumers are staying close to home and continuing to cut back on spending.
When taking into account the fundamentals, crude oil prices are still considered too high, and the possibility of increased demand is falling by the wayside. Nothing indicates that will change anytime soon.
In other ominous and understated economic news, Axel Weber, a council member of the European Central Bank, said the European economy may need intervention from the central bank through the end of 2010. That's not surprising, as there was no way the sovereign debt crisis, which has largely been ignored by the media after it was allegedly taken care of, has been resolved, as the sheer size of the problem couldn't be taken care of with a few debt offerings, no matter what the size of them were.
While the austerity measures taken by some nations were a good move, it staggers the mind to think they could go back to throwing money out into the economy of the region through central banks, making the problem even worse than it is.
With oil prices looking to the economy to signal where things are at, the answer is it's in bad shape, with no prospects it's going to turn around in the near future.
That means consumption, at least in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, will continue to fall, and oil prices should follow that lead.
In the peak July traveling season, joblessness and higher gas prices held consumption down, keeping demand relatively unchanged at a time it should have been soaring. Gasoline deliveries even fell slightly from last year, averaging 9.257 million barrels in July 2010, in comparison to 9.26 million in July 2009.
Stockpiles in the U.S. rose to 1.13 billion for the week ending August 13, gaining 5.3 million.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Bernanke's Misguided Policies Drive Gold Prices Up
Anyone who thinks gold prices are going to plunge, better read up on Ben Bernanke and his philosophy for running the Federal Reserve, which is nothing more than printing as much money as needed to pretty much do absolutely nothing, as evidenced by the ongoing recession.
Gold prices are going to continue to go up based on nothing else but that, although there are other factors which will contribute to the price movements of gold.
It's an incredible joke to hear economic and business writers say that gold prices are going up because the Federal Reserve will act to "stimulate" the economy if needed.
As mentioned, printing and throwing money at the problem can't be equated with economic stimulation, as the last two years have shown. There has been no stimulation, just artificial props that crash once they're removed, like the tax credit for new home buyers.
For gold investors it's good news to be reminded of these foolish actions, as it guarantees gold prices will move up for some time to come, as there can be no doubt the economy will continue to sputter, and Bernanke will crank up the printing presses yet again.
It also guarantees a robust Tea Party movement, as these types of actions are what led to organic formation of the political powerhouse to begin with, as government spending continues to spiral out of control and bring the United States to the point of ruin.
This is why gold will continue to attract new investors, and why it'll hold its own against the majority of investments for some time to come.
Gold in the short term will probably continue to fluctuate, as mixed economic news continues to be the narrative, giving differing signals at the same time.
But as the market slowly realizes Europe is far from fixed, even though some are attempting to make it look like it's back to business as usual, we'll see gold get a huge push from the ongoing sovereign debt crisis as well.
The recent downgrade of Ireland's debt reminds us of the threat still inherent in the European Union, and which isn't close to being taken care of.
For gold, all of this is going to keep support under it, and once it takes off again, will probably move to record highs, as there will be very few places to put our money.
Gold prices finished up for the third day in a row, increasing to $1,195.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
Gold prices are going to continue to go up based on nothing else but that, although there are other factors which will contribute to the price movements of gold.
It's an incredible joke to hear economic and business writers say that gold prices are going up because the Federal Reserve will act to "stimulate" the economy if needed.
As mentioned, printing and throwing money at the problem can't be equated with economic stimulation, as the last two years have shown. There has been no stimulation, just artificial props that crash once they're removed, like the tax credit for new home buyers.
For gold investors it's good news to be reminded of these foolish actions, as it guarantees gold prices will move up for some time to come, as there can be no doubt the economy will continue to sputter, and Bernanke will crank up the printing presses yet again.
It also guarantees a robust Tea Party movement, as these types of actions are what led to organic formation of the political powerhouse to begin with, as government spending continues to spiral out of control and bring the United States to the point of ruin.
This is why gold will continue to attract new investors, and why it'll hold its own against the majority of investments for some time to come.
Gold in the short term will probably continue to fluctuate, as mixed economic news continues to be the narrative, giving differing signals at the same time.
But as the market slowly realizes Europe is far from fixed, even though some are attempting to make it look like it's back to business as usual, we'll see gold get a huge push from the ongoing sovereign debt crisis as well.
The recent downgrade of Ireland's debt reminds us of the threat still inherent in the European Union, and which isn't close to being taken care of.
For gold, all of this is going to keep support under it, and once it takes off again, will probably move to record highs, as there will be very few places to put our money.
Gold prices finished up for the third day in a row, increasing to $1,195.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Is Noble Corp (NYSE:NE) a Buy?
An interesting story is emerging with oil services companies, and it's not Transocean (NYSE:RIG), which while down in price and P/E, are still exposed to the Gulf oil spill, and depending on what is found out as to the cause of the explosion and resultant leak, won't be cleared of the cloud overhanging them.
One of their major competitors, Noble Corp (NYSE:NE), has evidently been lumped together with the oil industry exposed to the Gulf, although there is no connection or exposure they have to it situation.
But incredibly their P/E is lower than Transocean's, standing at 5.07 as I write. Transocean's P/E is at 5.28.
To me the entire question is what is the rest of the summer going to be like as far as travel goes, as gas prices are already dropping after the Fourth of July weekend.
Many think this is going to be a slow summer for travel, based on the poor economic conditions in the U.S. and other parts of the world, which will keep people from spending in a big way.
So depending on whether or not you think gas and oil prices are going to rise, will determine if Noble is a buy to you.
I think it is a stock that must be watched though, and it has no reason to be where it's at, and has a lot of upside potential.
One of their major competitors, Noble Corp (NYSE:NE), has evidently been lumped together with the oil industry exposed to the Gulf, although there is no connection or exposure they have to it situation.
But incredibly their P/E is lower than Transocean's, standing at 5.07 as I write. Transocean's P/E is at 5.28.
To me the entire question is what is the rest of the summer going to be like as far as travel goes, as gas prices are already dropping after the Fourth of July weekend.
Many think this is going to be a slow summer for travel, based on the poor economic conditions in the U.S. and other parts of the world, which will keep people from spending in a big way.
So depending on whether or not you think gas and oil prices are going to rise, will determine if Noble is a buy to you.
I think it is a stock that must be watched though, and it has no reason to be where it's at, and has a lot of upside potential.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Oil Prices Fall Before Busy Holiday Weekend
For the fourth day in a row, oil prices fell on Thursday, as concerns over the economy could keep people closer to home, not only on this busiest of summer travel times, but throughout the rest of the summer as well.
There's really little to justify any optimism in the economic conditions we face, a the majority of economic data confirms we're either slowing down in growth, or, which is more likely, really never experienced any real growth, other than the government printing money and artificially propping up certain segments of the market in hopes it would buy enough time for a recovery to happen.
The government has lost that bet, and consumers know they need to be careful how they spend their money in light of economic uncertainties, which continue on.
New housing starts have plummeted, construction is down, jobless claims are up and homebuyers signing contracts also dropped in May, confirming fears of how shaky the economy really is.
Travel is one of the few things consumers can manage, and we're probably going to see a lot less of it this summer season, and oil prices will remain under downward pressure as a result.
There's really little to justify any optimism in the economic conditions we face, a the majority of economic data confirms we're either slowing down in growth, or, which is more likely, really never experienced any real growth, other than the government printing money and artificially propping up certain segments of the market in hopes it would buy enough time for a recovery to happen.
The government has lost that bet, and consumers know they need to be careful how they spend their money in light of economic uncertainties, which continue on.
New housing starts have plummeted, construction is down, jobless claims are up and homebuyers signing contracts also dropped in May, confirming fears of how shaky the economy really is.
Travel is one of the few things consumers can manage, and we're probably going to see a lot less of it this summer season, and oil prices will remain under downward pressure as a result.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Peter Schiff on Oil Prices
In a recent interview, Peter Schiff said he believes the only reason oil prices haven't skyrocketed is concerns by people around the world over the potential fallout from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, which could spread far beyond the continent to infect the world.
When you take the time the year it is, the usual high-priced gas and oil summer season, the moratorium by Obama in the Gulf, and the Gulf disaster itself, and you have the elements of extraordinary oil and gasoline prices, which haven't emerged.
Schiff stated, “Oil prices Should be going through the roof right now. The only reason they’re not is because of the broad-based sell-off around the world in equities, commodities, and other currencies due to the fear of contagion in Europe. This is trumping the very very bullish news for oil. But once we hit a bottom, I think we’re gonna see a huge increase in the price of oil.”
When you take the time the year it is, the usual high-priced gas and oil summer season, the moratorium by Obama in the Gulf, and the Gulf disaster itself, and you have the elements of extraordinary oil and gasoline prices, which haven't emerged.
Schiff stated, “Oil prices Should be going through the roof right now. The only reason they’re not is because of the broad-based sell-off around the world in equities, commodities, and other currencies due to the fear of contagion in Europe. This is trumping the very very bullish news for oil. But once we hit a bottom, I think we’re gonna see a huge increase in the price of oil.”
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Exxon (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) Down on Lower Oil Prices
The price of oil futures plunged below the $69 a barrel mark to close the day at $68.75 a barrel, dropping as low as $67.15 a barrel. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) closed down as well, moving in unison with oil prices today.
Exxon Mobil dropped 48 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $59.71, while Chevron was down 87 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $72.57.
Volume was high for both companies, with 22,308,218 Chevron share changing hands, in contrast to the 3-month average of 10,814,000. Exxon Mobil surged to 50,536,767 shares being exchanged, against the 3-month average of 28,592,600.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 22.82 points, to finish at 10043.75, a 0.23 percent drop.
Exxon Mobil dropped 48 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $59.71, while Chevron was down 87 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $72.57.
Volume was high for both companies, with 22,308,218 Chevron share changing hands, in contrast to the 3-month average of 10,814,000. Exxon Mobil surged to 50,536,767 shares being exchanged, against the 3-month average of 28,592,600.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 22.82 points, to finish at 10043.75, a 0.23 percent drop.
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