The release of the latest report on the U.S. job market was underwhelming, and reinforces the thesis that the workforce participation rate in the country won't return to the levels enjoyed in 2007, when it stood at 66 percent.
Data show the number of Americans who have a job or are seeking a job has dropped to a 38-year low of 62.6 percent, down from 62.9 percent last year.
Growth rates confirm this trend is worsening, as job participation growth in 2007 was 1.1 percent, while in 2014 it shrunk to only 0.3 percent.
As for the number of jobs added to the economy last month, the final numbers show nonfarm payrolls were up 223,000 in June, which resulted in a drop in the unemployment rate from 5.5 percent in May to 5.3 percent in June.
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Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Monday, July 6, 2015
Thursday, February 28, 2013
U.S. Economic Growth Stalls in Fourth Quarter
The anemic economic growth in the U.S. for the fourth quarter of 0.1 percent underscores the fact there is little or no momentum going forward, in spite of the media outlets already trying to spin it as a positive move forward.
Taking into account the gross domestic product data point to no real growth, missing the estimated 0.5 percent growth analysts had been looking for, again, confirms we are a long way from a healthy economy; both in the U.S. and the world.
Every time these types of numbers come out and explode the recovery myth, there are always those that say if it wasn't for this factor or that factor things would be healthier economically. You don't say. They're right. If report after report shows there are specific, but different factors hampering the economy, that means there are multiple reasons for slow or little growth, not alleged unique factors that are only a temporary drag on the economy.
Juggling few numbers actually made the 0.1 percent growth data happen, as the original numbers revealed there was a contraction. The government changed the export and import numbers to get the positive, albeit irrelevant growth. It's been two years since growth was this slow in the U.S.
The spin this time around is the slowdown came from inventory accumulation and a big cut in military spending. Presumably all that is going to go away in the first quarter of 2013.
Even the idea that terminology in the mainstream media say that optimism may be down some because of the slow pace of the recovery. Recovery? GDP of 0.1 percent isn't a recovery. And when you include the fact that the government massaged the numbers in order to ensure there wouldn't be a contraction reported, it is even worse than is being reported.
Original estimates were the economy had contracted by 0.1 percent. Those are probably the more accurate numbers, and should be assumed to be so by investors.
Even the employment numbers are being spun as positive, even though the jobless claims are just about the same as in 2007-2009 recession. How can that be construed as a recovery in any way? It can't. It's a lie, and we need to take that into consideration in our decision-making.
Taking into account the gross domestic product data point to no real growth, missing the estimated 0.5 percent growth analysts had been looking for, again, confirms we are a long way from a healthy economy; both in the U.S. and the world.
Every time these types of numbers come out and explode the recovery myth, there are always those that say if it wasn't for this factor or that factor things would be healthier economically. You don't say. They're right. If report after report shows there are specific, but different factors hampering the economy, that means there are multiple reasons for slow or little growth, not alleged unique factors that are only a temporary drag on the economy.
Juggling few numbers actually made the 0.1 percent growth data happen, as the original numbers revealed there was a contraction. The government changed the export and import numbers to get the positive, albeit irrelevant growth. It's been two years since growth was this slow in the U.S.
The spin this time around is the slowdown came from inventory accumulation and a big cut in military spending. Presumably all that is going to go away in the first quarter of 2013.
Even the idea that terminology in the mainstream media say that optimism may be down some because of the slow pace of the recovery. Recovery? GDP of 0.1 percent isn't a recovery. And when you include the fact that the government massaged the numbers in order to ensure there wouldn't be a contraction reported, it is even worse than is being reported.
Original estimates were the economy had contracted by 0.1 percent. Those are probably the more accurate numbers, and should be assumed to be so by investors.
Even the employment numbers are being spun as positive, even though the jobless claims are just about the same as in 2007-2009 recession. How can that be construed as a recovery in any way? It can't. It's a lie, and we need to take that into consideration in our decision-making.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
No Doubt Fed Stimulus will Continue
The temporary negative response to the content of the Fed minutes from its last meeting has proven to be nonsensical, as there is no doubt, and hasn't been any doubt, the global and American economy have really never exited the recession, and that bodes well for those investing in commodities, and specifically gold and silver.
It's probable that the major reason for the Federal Reserve acting like it's in conflict and confusion is for the purpose of keeping the U.S. dollar shored up, as the dollar weakening from the trillions in stimulus caused other currencies to rise against it, affecting their exports. The greenback climbed to a 5-1/2 month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday.
With unemployment jumping 20,000 last week and the Philadelphia Fed's business activity index plummeting to minus 12.5 in February, it shows factory activity has really slowed down. A reading of zero points to contraction. Last month it has plunged by minus 5.8.
Europe is another major problems the mainstream media seems to only occasionally bring up to keep the recovery narrative going, but economic conditions there continue to worsen, and there is little positive in that region in the world to look forward to in the near or medium term.
Food and energy has been rising in price, and even consumer prices outside of those soared by 0.3 percent, the largest gains since May 2011.
Some point to existing home sales as a positive, which rose 0.4 percent in January. The average price of a home has climbed 12.3 percent from a year ago.
The supposition is consumers will spend as a result, but I don't think that's really likely, other than a slight few who may do some refinancing.
A strong economy needs to be in place, or at least perceived to be in place in order for that to happen, and that bubble has burst for most consumers, and it's unlikely we'll see anything in homes that will make a significant impact on the U.S. economy.
In other words, the quantitative easing will continue from the central bank no matter what a couple of the directions may say.
It's probable that the major reason for the Federal Reserve acting like it's in conflict and confusion is for the purpose of keeping the U.S. dollar shored up, as the dollar weakening from the trillions in stimulus caused other currencies to rise against it, affecting their exports. The greenback climbed to a 5-1/2 month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday.
With unemployment jumping 20,000 last week and the Philadelphia Fed's business activity index plummeting to minus 12.5 in February, it shows factory activity has really slowed down. A reading of zero points to contraction. Last month it has plunged by minus 5.8.
Europe is another major problems the mainstream media seems to only occasionally bring up to keep the recovery narrative going, but economic conditions there continue to worsen, and there is little positive in that region in the world to look forward to in the near or medium term.
Food and energy has been rising in price, and even consumer prices outside of those soared by 0.3 percent, the largest gains since May 2011.
Some point to existing home sales as a positive, which rose 0.4 percent in January. The average price of a home has climbed 12.3 percent from a year ago.
The supposition is consumers will spend as a result, but I don't think that's really likely, other than a slight few who may do some refinancing.
A strong economy needs to be in place, or at least perceived to be in place in order for that to happen, and that bubble has burst for most consumers, and it's unlikely we'll see anything in homes that will make a significant impact on the U.S. economy.
In other words, the quantitative easing will continue from the central bank no matter what a couple of the directions may say.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Silver Wheaton (SLW) Still a Buy
Some financial writers are attempting to cast doubt on silver and gold specifically, and also precious metals streaming company Silver Wheaton in particular, on the dubious and weak unemployment numbers, which allegedly dropped below 8 percent, producing the best results for the Obama administration about a month before the presidential election.
Former General Electric (GE) CEO Jack Welch asserts the numbers have been manipulated in order to cast Obama in a much brighter light than he should be. But even if they're close to the actual unemployed, all that means is a bunch of retailers hired temporary, part-time help, which they'll shed soon after the inventory is counted at the end of the year. Consequently, as usual, the unemployment numbers will jump up after the holiday season.
A major impediment from those making it look like the so-called improving economic situation in America being believable is that most are looking at the weak supply and demand circumstances, along with the assumption QE3 will end sooner than later as a result of the "improving" unemployment numbers.
That's a fallacy, and the open-ended monthly acquisition of mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve is far from ending, and hints have been made that it won't stop until unemployment drops below 6 percent, and possibly as low as 5.5 percent. That isn't going to happen any time soon.
With Europe and China slowing down considerably, what could possibly be the catalyst to really end the ongoing recession? There aren't any, and that means QE3 will go on for a long time into the future; probably for many years.
About the only real positive in the American economy is the probability the housing market has reached, or is close to reaching a bottom. But even there it'll take years before a rebound will happen which will bring prices back to pre-2008 levels.
Even so, new construction could begin on homes in America, which would be a positive for silver and other commodities on the demand side, but which won't do much to change the jobs picture in the next couple of years.
As it all relates to Silver Wheaton, the price is driven more by QE3 at this time than any other factor, and the ongoing stimulus has formed support for silver prices, which means it has also put support under Silver Wheaton as well.
That, and the recent deal between Hudbay and Silver Wheaton shows the management is still seeking to boost its silver resources, as well as gold, which locks in revenue streams for years.
Silver Wheaton will only pay $5.90 an ounce for silver from Hudbay, which brings to overall total the company pays for silver production from all its deals to about $4.04. The operating margin enjoyed by Silver Wheaton are now about 75 percent. What's not to like about that?
As for real unemployment, the U-6 rate remains the same, which stands at 14.6 percent of Americans. That includes the underemployed or those that quit looking for work. Those are the numbers that really count, and that means there is no chance the Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke are even close to thinking about easing up on the easing. Those that think they are don't understand the motivations and reasoning behind QE3.
This doesn't even take into account inflation and the necessity for the Fed to unwind its position.
Taken together, Silver Wheaton remains a great buy, and those who don't own the company will regret they didn't get in before the price of silver and Silver Wheaton take off to even more dizzying heights.
Silver Wheaton closed Tuesday at $38.70, falling $0.99, or 2.49 percent.
Former General Electric (GE) CEO Jack Welch asserts the numbers have been manipulated in order to cast Obama in a much brighter light than he should be. But even if they're close to the actual unemployed, all that means is a bunch of retailers hired temporary, part-time help, which they'll shed soon after the inventory is counted at the end of the year. Consequently, as usual, the unemployment numbers will jump up after the holiday season.
A major impediment from those making it look like the so-called improving economic situation in America being believable is that most are looking at the weak supply and demand circumstances, along with the assumption QE3 will end sooner than later as a result of the "improving" unemployment numbers.
That's a fallacy, and the open-ended monthly acquisition of mortgage-backed securities by the Federal Reserve is far from ending, and hints have been made that it won't stop until unemployment drops below 6 percent, and possibly as low as 5.5 percent. That isn't going to happen any time soon.
With Europe and China slowing down considerably, what could possibly be the catalyst to really end the ongoing recession? There aren't any, and that means QE3 will go on for a long time into the future; probably for many years.
About the only real positive in the American economy is the probability the housing market has reached, or is close to reaching a bottom. But even there it'll take years before a rebound will happen which will bring prices back to pre-2008 levels.
Even so, new construction could begin on homes in America, which would be a positive for silver and other commodities on the demand side, but which won't do much to change the jobs picture in the next couple of years.
As it all relates to Silver Wheaton, the price is driven more by QE3 at this time than any other factor, and the ongoing stimulus has formed support for silver prices, which means it has also put support under Silver Wheaton as well.
That, and the recent deal between Hudbay and Silver Wheaton shows the management is still seeking to boost its silver resources, as well as gold, which locks in revenue streams for years.
Silver Wheaton will only pay $5.90 an ounce for silver from Hudbay, which brings to overall total the company pays for silver production from all its deals to about $4.04. The operating margin enjoyed by Silver Wheaton are now about 75 percent. What's not to like about that?
As for real unemployment, the U-6 rate remains the same, which stands at 14.6 percent of Americans. That includes the underemployed or those that quit looking for work. Those are the numbers that really count, and that means there is no chance the Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke are even close to thinking about easing up on the easing. Those that think they are don't understand the motivations and reasoning behind QE3.
This doesn't even take into account inflation and the necessity for the Fed to unwind its position.
Taken together, Silver Wheaton remains a great buy, and those who don't own the company will regret they didn't get in before the price of silver and Silver Wheaton take off to even more dizzying heights.
Silver Wheaton closed Tuesday at $38.70, falling $0.99, or 2.49 percent.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Fed, Bernanke Ready to Stimulate
Even though Ben Bernanke is understating the eventuality of more stimulus for the economy, it's becoming apparent from his recent statements about the weakness of the U.S. economy that it is inevitable that the Federal Reserve will again pour money into the economy.
It's only a matter of when and by what means.
Some believe Bernanke may wait until the September meeting to see if there are any positive economic effects from the continuation of Operation Twist.
But with anemic jobs creation and continuing devastating unemployment, the question is whether the Fed has the nerves to wait another couple of months before taking action.
Action could be taken at the upcoming meeting from July 31 to August 1. If they don't and the economy falters, even more extraordinary pressure will be applied as the elections approach, especially for the hapless Obama and his administration, which has been totally ineffective in helping the economy along, and rather are making it worse by wanting to increase taxes rather than cut government spending.
It idea is if the Fed waits until September they'll have a better view of whether or not Operation Twist has done any good. I would be surprised if they do wait that long.
To me, the terrible American and global economy has called Bernanke's bluff, as growth numbers from key nations like China continue to move downward, confirming the precarious state of the global economy, which has such a detrimental impact on the U.S.
So Bernanke and the other Fed heads face growing pressure. If they fail to stimulate, the fallout will be enormous for them, even though over the long term it's a disaster.
But what makes me think stimulation is around the corner is former Fed officials who have been opposing more stimulus are starting to change their viewpoint, suggesting growing political pressure from the Democrats, who are afraid of getting slaughtered in the upcoming election, whether Obama gets reelected or not.
Also significant is the fact there is no real, sustainable economic growth in America which has signaled to the Fed that it is growing fast enough on its own.
In their view that's a disaster, and pushes them towards another round of easing, whatever the mechanism for doing it will be.
I think the Fed is growing closer to stimulating, and it would be surprising if it isn't done within a week. If not, the markets will remain in turmoil because of the uncertainty surrounding whether or not there will be a stimulus.
With everything pointing towards it, I can't see what reason the Fed could give for waiting, in light of the risk of not doing it now.
Next week will be enormous heading into August.
It's only a matter of when and by what means.
Some believe Bernanke may wait until the September meeting to see if there are any positive economic effects from the continuation of Operation Twist.
But with anemic jobs creation and continuing devastating unemployment, the question is whether the Fed has the nerves to wait another couple of months before taking action.
Action could be taken at the upcoming meeting from July 31 to August 1. If they don't and the economy falters, even more extraordinary pressure will be applied as the elections approach, especially for the hapless Obama and his administration, which has been totally ineffective in helping the economy along, and rather are making it worse by wanting to increase taxes rather than cut government spending.
It idea is if the Fed waits until September they'll have a better view of whether or not Operation Twist has done any good. I would be surprised if they do wait that long.
To me, the terrible American and global economy has called Bernanke's bluff, as growth numbers from key nations like China continue to move downward, confirming the precarious state of the global economy, which has such a detrimental impact on the U.S.
So Bernanke and the other Fed heads face growing pressure. If they fail to stimulate, the fallout will be enormous for them, even though over the long term it's a disaster.
But what makes me think stimulation is around the corner is former Fed officials who have been opposing more stimulus are starting to change their viewpoint, suggesting growing political pressure from the Democrats, who are afraid of getting slaughtered in the upcoming election, whether Obama gets reelected or not.
Also significant is the fact there is no real, sustainable economic growth in America which has signaled to the Fed that it is growing fast enough on its own.
In their view that's a disaster, and pushes them towards another round of easing, whatever the mechanism for doing it will be.
I think the Fed is growing closer to stimulating, and it would be surprising if it isn't done within a week. If not, the markets will remain in turmoil because of the uncertainty surrounding whether or not there will be a stimulus.
With everything pointing towards it, I can't see what reason the Fed could give for waiting, in light of the risk of not doing it now.
Next week will be enormous heading into August.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Is This Great Depression II?
With the mainstream media focusing on the country's leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. But I will argue that a look under the proverbial hood reveals a very different picture. I believe the data shows that the US economy is badly damaged, and a modern-day depression has begun. In fact, just as World War I was originally called The Great War (and was retroactively renamed after World War II), Peter Schiff has said that one day the world will refer to the 1929-41 era as Great Depression I, and the current period as Great Depression II.
For starters, look at unemployment. During Great Depression I, unemployment broke 25%. If government statistics are taken at face value, the current unemployment rate is 9.9%, but a closer look reveals that the broadest measure of unemployment is currently at 20% - and rising. So, today's numbers are in the same ballpark as the '30s even though the federal government is using unprecedented measures to keep the economy afloat. Remember, in Great Depression I, FDR never ran a deficit nearly as large as President Obama's. Moreover, the Federal Reserve of the 1930s still had a gold standard with which to contend, while today's Fed has increased the monetary base with impunity. Yet even with all that intervention, unemployment figures still indicate that we have entered depression territory.
What is demoralizing to an unemployed person is not simply being let go, it is being unable to find a new job for an extended period of time. And this is where Great Depression II really rears its ugly head. According to the US federal government's own data, the median duration of unemployment is now over five months - and rising. This is the highest it's been since the BLS started compiling this statistic in 1965. As workers start to go this long without jobs, they eat into their savings. Eventually - and especially in a country with a savings rate as low as ours and debt as high as ours - they run out of cushion and hit the street. Formerly middle-class people have to make decisions never thought possible: do I eat in a shelter or go hungry in my home?
rest of story
For starters, look at unemployment. During Great Depression I, unemployment broke 25%. If government statistics are taken at face value, the current unemployment rate is 9.9%, but a closer look reveals that the broadest measure of unemployment is currently at 20% - and rising. So, today's numbers are in the same ballpark as the '30s even though the federal government is using unprecedented measures to keep the economy afloat. Remember, in Great Depression I, FDR never ran a deficit nearly as large as President Obama's. Moreover, the Federal Reserve of the 1930s still had a gold standard with which to contend, while today's Fed has increased the monetary base with impunity. Yet even with all that intervention, unemployment figures still indicate that we have entered depression territory.
What is demoralizing to an unemployed person is not simply being let go, it is being unable to find a new job for an extended period of time. And this is where Great Depression II really rears its ugly head. According to the US federal government's own data, the median duration of unemployment is now over five months - and rising. This is the highest it's been since the BLS started compiling this statistic in 1965. As workers start to go this long without jobs, they eat into their savings. Eventually - and especially in a country with a savings rate as low as ours and debt as high as ours - they run out of cushion and hit the street. Formerly middle-class people have to make decisions never thought possible: do I eat in a shelter or go hungry in my home?
rest of story
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Oil, Unemployment and Economic Recovery
Excuses being prepared for why an economic recovery was reported as being real
Everywhere I read, I continually hear what sounds like excuses for why the so-called recovery won't be continuing on. Now I have no doubt there is no economic recovery, and the most recent excuse for that, from the mainstream media perspective, is the increasing price of oil.
Before we get into that, think for a moment if you're a consistent reader of economic news, on how many times over the last several months you've heard the term "unexpected" used when referring to economic data.
The latest "unexpected" referred to the number of new unemployment claims which were of course, "unexpected.
Why is it this way? That's easy. Reporters for mainstream media, and some of the sycophants of the Obama administration simply can't think in terms of there being no recovery after the trillions being spent to make sure there is one.
That would mean the government has failed, and they should have listened to those who told them and other that we should allow the market to take care of the problem and to leave their hands off of it.
Now for oil, it is rising in anticipation of what the industry is hoping is a robust summer vacation time for travelers, but I'm highly suspicious of that being what emerges. I think people will stay closer to home and continue to do more local and inexpensive activities.
So the assumption that oil will continue to rise in price can't be a certainty because of the continuing weak economy around the world, and especially in America.
what is happening, in my estimation, is mainstream media around the world are preparing to explain their failure in identifying the outrageous spending by governments and central banks and how it has been a disaster which future generations will have to pay for with almost no results. Of course they did identify it, but it'll be spun as something they didn't see, and are raising a bunch of bogeyman like oil and other "unexpected" events which brought their faulty conclusions into the light.
Of course the Keynesian economists are already preparing the same strategy, as they're made to look like the complete idiots they are, as they as a group supported the outrageous government spending which Keynesian economics is founded upon, and of course will be exposed as the complete failure it has always been; it just takes years for it to be exposed as debt is piled on, taxes are raised and money printed which can no longer cover up the hoax that it is.
Now other commodities are also being added to the mix as to why there may be economic problems ahead of us, but that misses the point. A number of economists and others have pointed out that printing money will result in inflation. Now that inflation is coming, the analysis is higher prices could keep the economic recovery from happening.
Another factor is demand, which always pushes prices higher if the demand is strong and supply weak, and that has been predictable for a long time.
All of this is saying the hoopla and stupidity of mainstream media in promoting the lie that we're in a recovery when in fact we haven't even began a recovery, has them scrambling to explain why that isn't so after reporting so faithfully on behalf of the Obama administration.
In other words: damage control. All the excessive government spending was for one reason, and that was an attempt to buy time in hopes there would be a legitimate recovery which would cover up the outrageous behavior of politicians, who for populist reasons allowed the outrage to continue, with little chance of it having a chance to succeed, although the politicians didn't know that, but there advisers and those in economic positions as well.
Now the mainstream media is positioning themselves in an attempt to keep from looking like complete buffoons in the matter, but it is far too late for that, as they committed to quickly, too long and too deeply to what was coming out of the White House concerning the alleged recovery, and now they'll have to again pay the price for becoming increasingly irrelevant concerning being legitimate sources of news, and more the parrots they've sadly become.
Everywhere I read, I continually hear what sounds like excuses for why the so-called recovery won't be continuing on. Now I have no doubt there is no economic recovery, and the most recent excuse for that, from the mainstream media perspective, is the increasing price of oil.
Before we get into that, think for a moment if you're a consistent reader of economic news, on how many times over the last several months you've heard the term "unexpected" used when referring to economic data.
The latest "unexpected" referred to the number of new unemployment claims which were of course, "unexpected.
Why is it this way? That's easy. Reporters for mainstream media, and some of the sycophants of the Obama administration simply can't think in terms of there being no recovery after the trillions being spent to make sure there is one.
That would mean the government has failed, and they should have listened to those who told them and other that we should allow the market to take care of the problem and to leave their hands off of it.
Now for oil, it is rising in anticipation of what the industry is hoping is a robust summer vacation time for travelers, but I'm highly suspicious of that being what emerges. I think people will stay closer to home and continue to do more local and inexpensive activities.
So the assumption that oil will continue to rise in price can't be a certainty because of the continuing weak economy around the world, and especially in America.
what is happening, in my estimation, is mainstream media around the world are preparing to explain their failure in identifying the outrageous spending by governments and central banks and how it has been a disaster which future generations will have to pay for with almost no results. Of course they did identify it, but it'll be spun as something they didn't see, and are raising a bunch of bogeyman like oil and other "unexpected" events which brought their faulty conclusions into the light.
Of course the Keynesian economists are already preparing the same strategy, as they're made to look like the complete idiots they are, as they as a group supported the outrageous government spending which Keynesian economics is founded upon, and of course will be exposed as the complete failure it has always been; it just takes years for it to be exposed as debt is piled on, taxes are raised and money printed which can no longer cover up the hoax that it is.
Now other commodities are also being added to the mix as to why there may be economic problems ahead of us, but that misses the point. A number of economists and others have pointed out that printing money will result in inflation. Now that inflation is coming, the analysis is higher prices could keep the economic recovery from happening.
Another factor is demand, which always pushes prices higher if the demand is strong and supply weak, and that has been predictable for a long time.
All of this is saying the hoopla and stupidity of mainstream media in promoting the lie that we're in a recovery when in fact we haven't even began a recovery, has them scrambling to explain why that isn't so after reporting so faithfully on behalf of the Obama administration.
In other words: damage control. All the excessive government spending was for one reason, and that was an attempt to buy time in hopes there would be a legitimate recovery which would cover up the outrageous behavior of politicians, who for populist reasons allowed the outrage to continue, with little chance of it having a chance to succeed, although the politicians didn't know that, but there advisers and those in economic positions as well.
Now the mainstream media is positioning themselves in an attempt to keep from looking like complete buffoons in the matter, but it is far too late for that, as they committed to quickly, too long and too deeply to what was coming out of the White House concerning the alleged recovery, and now they'll have to again pay the price for becoming increasingly irrelevant concerning being legitimate sources of news, and more the parrots they've sadly become.
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