To listen to the mainstream media, you would think Europe is about to enter some type of economic golden age, even though the situation in Spain is worsening, as the country reported its latest quarter saw the economy contracting more than it was estimated to.
As goes Spain so will go the EU, and so the idea that Spain's economic health getting worse doesn't count much to the clueless reporters, only shows how much of the koolaide they're drinking in an attempt to cover up the disaster of keynesianism, stimulus, debt, fascism and socialism.
All of these have converged and blended to create the economic disaster we're seeing around the world, one that is not even close to being solved, let alone recovering, as most in the media are asserting and reporting.
It's important to note that the irrelevant idea of market sentiment and the reality of how an economy is actually performing are two completely different things, with sentiment having no importance at all, other than to write headlines that are done to make people and politicians good about the disaster that is the global economy.
Spain's GDP dropped 0.7 percent from the third to the fourth quarter, plummeting the most in a year.
The only thing saving Spain and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy from requesting another international bailout is a robust bond market to start the year. Investors have poured money into Spain to get the high yields offered by the country.
Unfortunately, that will do nothing to change the economy of Spain, which continues to contract, and is expected to for at least two more years, and probably more.
According to the Bank of Spain, the bond money isn't doing anything for what it identifies as "the real economy."
That's the correct assessment, as regardless of how strongly the bonds are selling, Spain's debt load continues to grow, making it the domino that could topple the region.
One bright spot in the entire mess is there are steps to cut back on taxes on entrepreneurs, which is one of the few smart moves coming out of the disaster. It should have been done long ago. But better late than never.
Other than that, there is little if any good economic news coming out of Spain, and there will be a time when it will request even more international loans, and when that happens the future of the country and the Euro zone will again put to the forefront where it belongs, as there is absolutely nothing going forward that suggests this will turn around any time soon.
It's amazing in light of this that the media continue to report Europe has turned the corner economically, when the key country of concern is getting contracting rather than growing. Only the investment in bonds keep the truth of this from going more public. That will probably end soon, and Spain will come back into the public eye where it belongs, so we can see a more accurate picture of what's really going on.
Any outlook or decision not including Spain as a major variable is one that is flawed and faulty.
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Showing posts with label Keynesianism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Keynesianism. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Is Spain About to Pull Europe Down with it?
Labels:
Euro Zone,
Keynesianism,
Socialism,
Spain Sovereign Debt
Greece Tells Taxman to take Citizens' Money
Greece is apparently getting even more desperate than before, as now the government is trying to pass into law a draconian rule which allows them to steal money from the bank accounts of people they accuse of tax evasion, even if they haven't been proven guilty or convicted of the crime.
What if they are found to be innocent? Supposedly the tax authorities will return it to the falsely accused. Yeah. That'll work great.
How it'll work is tax authorities will be given access to the accounts of the accused and draw the money out of them that is alleged to be owed.
The question is of course where is that money going to be while they await the results of the trial? We all know it'll be long gone. Then the question must be asked of where the Greek government and its tax authorities going to get the money to pay back the people that are acquitted? Since they have no money, it's going to be pretty hard to return what is already spent.
You can easily see where this is all going to go. There will be an endless number of lawsuits filed against the people of Greece as a tool to extract even more money from them. Just enough of them will be legitimate enough to make it look like the actions are justified. But there can be no doubt, if this is put into effect, it will further enrage the population and there will be further unrest and violence.
That's not to say I'm in the corner of the people of Greece, as they allowed themselves to live in a way for a long time that was unsustainable, extracting ridiculous concessions and perks which the small percentage of the productive in the country, Europe, and other parts of the world, got tired of underwriting.
So while the theft of money from people that are not convicted of a crime by the government of Greece is despicable, so is the socialist practices of a country that has been hit right in the face by the fact that socialism hasn't and will never work.
They're also learning the hard way that Keynesianism is dead, and no matter how much money is thrown at a problem, if it isn't able to be paid back by a productive and vibrant free market, it's going to pile up to the point there is no hope of paying it back, no matter how much they whine and cry about the cruelty of austerity. All that's happening is they are learning they actually have to work for their money and compete against others in a global marketplace.
Opposition leader Alexis Tsipras has even called for the equivalent of a Marshall Plan to bail out the country.
The unions continue to implement strike after strike as if that is going to change the circumstances. What is it about there being no money they don't understand? What is it about no one wants to pay for their plush lifestyle any longer? Those days are over and will never come back. One way or the other they will have to deal with it. So will the rest of the world, including America.
What if they are found to be innocent? Supposedly the tax authorities will return it to the falsely accused. Yeah. That'll work great.
How it'll work is tax authorities will be given access to the accounts of the accused and draw the money out of them that is alleged to be owed.
The question is of course where is that money going to be while they await the results of the trial? We all know it'll be long gone. Then the question must be asked of where the Greek government and its tax authorities going to get the money to pay back the people that are acquitted? Since they have no money, it's going to be pretty hard to return what is already spent.
You can easily see where this is all going to go. There will be an endless number of lawsuits filed against the people of Greece as a tool to extract even more money from them. Just enough of them will be legitimate enough to make it look like the actions are justified. But there can be no doubt, if this is put into effect, it will further enrage the population and there will be further unrest and violence.
That's not to say I'm in the corner of the people of Greece, as they allowed themselves to live in a way for a long time that was unsustainable, extracting ridiculous concessions and perks which the small percentage of the productive in the country, Europe, and other parts of the world, got tired of underwriting.
So while the theft of money from people that are not convicted of a crime by the government of Greece is despicable, so is the socialist practices of a country that has been hit right in the face by the fact that socialism hasn't and will never work.
They're also learning the hard way that Keynesianism is dead, and no matter how much money is thrown at a problem, if it isn't able to be paid back by a productive and vibrant free market, it's going to pile up to the point there is no hope of paying it back, no matter how much they whine and cry about the cruelty of austerity. All that's happening is they are learning they actually have to work for their money and compete against others in a global marketplace.
Opposition leader Alexis Tsipras has even called for the equivalent of a Marshall Plan to bail out the country.
The unions continue to implement strike after strike as if that is going to change the circumstances. What is it about there being no money they don't understand? What is it about no one wants to pay for their plush lifestyle any longer? Those days are over and will never come back. One way or the other they will have to deal with it. So will the rest of the world, including America.
Labels:
Greece Debt,
Keynesianism,
Socialism
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Japan Approves 20 Trillion Yen Stimulus
Following the faltering and failing Keynesian practices of America and Europe, Japan announced it has approved yet another stimulus package, this one valued at over 20 trillion yen ($224 billion).
New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the goal of the stimulus is to boost annual economic growth in Japan by two percent. He also wants to add 600,000 new jobs in the process.
The usual but tired idea of government infrastructure projects as the method to grow the Japanese economy our of its ongoing recession.
Most of the money will allegedly be used in relationship to the recent tsunami and earthquake of 2011, where reconstructing the areas hit the hardest by it will be the priority.
In reality this has a lot to do with the battle of central banks, where the decision by the Federal Reserve to have open-ended stimulus has caused other competing nations to respond in kind so their currencies don't rise too high against the U.S. dollar.
That means they don't want exports to plunge, which would hurt the domestic markets of Japan and other nations.
The new prime minister, who also served in that capacity in 2006-2007, told the central bank of Japan to take whatever steps are necessary to raise the inflation rate to two percent.
New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the goal of the stimulus is to boost annual economic growth in Japan by two percent. He also wants to add 600,000 new jobs in the process.
The usual but tired idea of government infrastructure projects as the method to grow the Japanese economy our of its ongoing recession.
Most of the money will allegedly be used in relationship to the recent tsunami and earthquake of 2011, where reconstructing the areas hit the hardest by it will be the priority.
In reality this has a lot to do with the battle of central banks, where the decision by the Federal Reserve to have open-ended stimulus has caused other competing nations to respond in kind so their currencies don't rise too high against the U.S. dollar.
That means they don't want exports to plunge, which would hurt the domestic markets of Japan and other nations.
The new prime minister, who also served in that capacity in 2006-2007, told the central bank of Japan to take whatever steps are necessary to raise the inflation rate to two percent.
Labels:
Japan Stimulus,
Japanese Yen,
Job Stimulus,
Keynesianism
Thursday, November 8, 2012
EU Private Sector Faltering
The recent announcements by a number of corporations participating in the EU concerning slashing tens of thousands of jobs, underscores the reality that the private sector continues to struggle, even as governments had hoped they would help turn the region around.
Among those recently announcing jobs being slashed are UBS (UBS), which said it'll be be getting rid of a massive 10,000 jobs - which has already begun. Other major employers cutting thousands of jobs (aggregately) are ING (ING), Kloeckner, Ericsson (ERIC) and Bombardier.
A growing number of economists believe the next couple of years in Europe will see jobless rates jump to even worse levels than they stand at now. We probably won't know until around the summer months because these current layoffs won't affect data until about six to nine months after the layoffs are implemented.
The major problem in Europe is that governments have finally started to shrink a little, causing bloated staffs to be laid off, but at a rate that the private sector can't keep up with.
Of course it was never a reality that outrageous government debt and spending could be compensated for by the private sector after years of abuse, fraud, and unsustainable promises and practices.
People in some countries don't even think in terms of the private sector as a legitimate work environment because they've been brainwashed into believing government is the great healer of nations. Most are finding out too late that that is a fallacy, and since the private sectors of nations were weakened by these outlooks and effects, it's impossible in a short period of time to rectify all the mistakes that have been made, even if they wanted to.
It has taken far too long for governments in the EU to shrink, and they're no paying for that ongoing irresponsible mindset, as austerity is forced upon the nations of Europe, with a private sector not robust enough to absorb the people being released from work.
The good news is over time this will be positive for the private sector as workers and the rest of the people realize that governments can't provide for them in the ways that were promised. It's productivity that results in prosperity, not artificially created government jobs that provide ridiculous benefits the productive are asked to shoulder. Those days are thankfully coming to an end, as are outrageous union demands.
Because Europe has played far too long with countries that long ago should have decreased the size of government, now the forced austerity is pressuring private companies who must operate under actual market conditions, and not the illusory markets created by governments throwing debt-induced money around while being enabled by central banks and failing Keynesian policies.
Yet some foolish economists continue to say things like there must be growth in the "public" or private sector if some of the nations in the EU are to stay in it. What about limited government and downsizing don't these quacks understand? It's inevitable. These governments and their debt coming from endless spending and programs are through. In a relatively short period of time what they were before the sovereign debt crisis will no longer exist.
There will be governments still in place of course, but the bloated monstrosities they have become will gradually be shrunk down in size to the benefit of everyone but the parasites that used them to their advantage.
In the months ahead we'll see growing pressure in Greece, and probably Spain and others in the eurozone to start thinking in terms of abandoning the euro for their own currencies. That would result in some short-term pain, but over the long haul it would be the best for all countries in the region, as well as the rest of the world.
But if nations continuing to use their central banks as a rich uncle not willing to rein in a spoiled kid's spending don't change, this will extend across the globe, as the United States is hanging on by a thread, and with over $220 trillion in unfunded liabilities facing the nation, and China having taken up some bad Keynesian money creation habits, it may be only time before pressure rises on all of them.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
IMF's Lagarde Wants Less Austerity
With the need for even more austerity in Europe, along with the abandonment of Keynesianism and socialism, it's pathetic to see IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde say that the austerity measures European officials are attempting to require in order for nations to receive aid - are "harsh."
The usual ignorance surrounding economics by Lagarde and others is evident in the ongoing idea that actually dealing with the unsustainable debt problem in a practical manner would result in it hurting nations like Greece and Spain, which continue to attempt to extract more money from the eurozone while doing very little to meaningfully cut back on debt and spending.
How does cutting back on government spending present problems for growth? It doesn't if your a market economy and embrace real capitalism (not crony capitalism).
But when the idea that government has a right to interfere in economies is part of the mix, it creates outrageous problems like the sovereign debt crisis now faced by Europe. To think that government spending actually has a positive, long-term effect on any economy is thinking from a day before the fall of the Soviet Union and socialism. To attempt to revive it through out of control government spending is doomed to failure, and calls for anemic austerity measures is a way to allow this failing economic dinosaur to last a little longer, while threatening to take down the eurozone with it.
Lagarde wants to have these irresponsible countries, including Portugal with Greece and Spain, to have another two years to deal with the problems. But since the reality is they have done little but talk austerity as the money keeps pouring into them, all that will do is result in the debt load of the countries climbing even more. The region simply doesn't have people with the courage to take the needed steps that would heal the damage done for the socialist, Keynesian cancer spreading across the eurozone.
No economic radiation or chemotherapy will help the situation, neither will cutting out the source of the cancer. It's too late, as the entire area has been infected with the financial cancer, and the patient will have to allow itself to die before any chance of recovery begins.
That's because there are none who have the will to take the needed steps to ensure a long-term economic health recovery to the countries there.
The idea that austerity measures are a risk rather than a long-term cure only shows the lunatics are running the asylum, and whether anyone takes the needed steps or not, the economic conditions will force them to be taken in one form or another in the not too distant future.
What will come out of that will be the final death of socialism and Keynesianism (other than a few deluded dreamers who will always adhere to the failed theories and systems), which could result in a gravitation towards real free markets and capitalism, which offer the only hope for long-term economic success for the world.
Labels:
Eurozone,
IMF,
Keynesianism,
Sovereign Debt Crisis
Germany Cuts Growth Estimates in Half
In what could be the precursor to a major blow to the eurozone, German economists lowered their growth estimates in half, cutting them from the previous 2 percent down to 1 percent.
While the German public has little in the way of support for the poorly run countries in the eurozone, Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to go against that sentiment, saying the country needs "to do things to stimulate the European economy."
Merkel continues to look to the failed idea of consumers bailing out Europe. She said to reporters, "If we manage to keep our domestic consumption up, then that has of course the advantage that we can increase imports from other European Union countries."
That's all a smokescreen. Who doesn't know that doing things to help the European economy means throwing money at the irresponsible nations in the eurozone, who are Keynesian and socialist to the core, and are doing nothing to get out of the way so free markets and real capitalism will emerge. That's the only practical answer, and until they takes those steps and put in place even more austerity measures, things will continue to spiral downwards.
Projections for growth in the eurozone for 2013 is an anemic 0.2 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund. In the second quarter growth in the eurozone dropped 0.2 percent, while Germany only grew 0.3 percent for the quarter.
The German economists concluded that German growth faces major challenges if other countries in the eurozone don't take steps to cut back on spending and lower their debt. A recession is likely if things continue on as they are.
The economic report, which comes out twice a year, also lowered its estimates for German growth for 2012, dropping it from 0.9 percent to 0.8 percent.
It's interesting to see these many beggar nations point to austerity making things worse. The fact is the lack of austerity is what brought this outrageous sovereign debt crisis about, and while it will cause some pain, it's overspending and offering more than can be delivered by governments that has the eurozone where it is today.
Many leaders and economists continue to act and believe that government spending is what brings about economic success, as evidenced by the continual calls to spend even more while doing very little to make actual cuts in the debt.
Business is what brings economic strength and success, not governments. And until these corrupt politicians in Europe, and many other areas of the world, stop believing government is the answer to building wealth, things will remain the same, or get much worse.
As for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, she continues to talk tough in the beginning of the next round of throwing money at the problem, but after this false posturing, caves in and backs up continual spending.
Nothing will change that until German voters see what's really happening and how it negatively affects them, and end up voting her and her party out.
Either that or, Merkel finally gets some inner strength and stands against the rest of the eurozone in order to protect her country or people.
But since she is a proponent of a new world order, unless she has an epiphany, nothing will change, and she'll continue to cave in time after time to the foolish practice of providing money to governments who really have no intentions of cutting back on spending, but who hope that the global economy will improve while they keep kicking the can down the road.
In that case the major countries in the region will continue to prop up the failed practices and economic policies of these countries, but it won't be as noticeable to voters because things will appear to have been taken care of.
But Germany doesn't appear strong enough to carry the weight of increasingly socialist Europe, which has an entitlement culture so inbred in them that even when this could bring down the entire eurozone economically, they continue to hang on to these failed theories and practices.
In other words, socialism and entitlements have taken on a religious connotation, and people who believe in the state as almighty, will continue to follow that until their faith in government fails them, and they'll have to start to become responsible for their own lives. It'll take time for that to happen. But happen it will.
Labels:
Angela Merkel,
Eurozone,
Keynesianism,
Sovereign Debt Crisis
Monday, September 17, 2012
Will Oil Trigger Next Recession?
I was confident that the Fed had already begun printing. That seemed quite evident by the overall action in the commodity markets, the dollar, and the fact that stocks were unable to correct in the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. However, I didn’t really expect Ben would come out and publicly admit it. That one took me by surprise Thursday. I guess Bernanke wants to get full value for his attack on the dollar and make sure that markets are rising into the election.
At this point all the pieces are in place for the inflationary spike and currency crisis I’ve been predicting for 2014. We now have open ended QE that is tied to economic output and unemployment. But since debasing currencies has historically never been the cure for the bursting of a credit bubble, all the Fed is going to produce is spiraling inflation. So as this progresses we are going to see the Fed printing faster and faster as the result they are looking for never materializes. This is what will ultimately drive the currency crisis at the dollar’s next three year cycle low in 2014.
At this point, watch the price of oil if you want to know when the next recession is going to begin. As I’ve pointed out many times in the past, recessions (well, at least since World War II) have all been preceded by a sharp spike in the price of energy. Any move of 100% or more in a year or less, has historically been the straw that breaks the camel's back. Modern economies cannot survive that kind of shock. It invariably triggers the collapse of consumer discretionary spending and economic activity comes to a grinding halt.
In 2007 oil surged out of the 3 year cycle low into a parabolic advance as Bernanke trashed the dollar in the vain attempt to halt the sub-prime collapse. That 200% spike in oil is what tipped the economy over into recession, which was then magnified in the fall of `08 as the financial bubble and debt markets imploded.
I think it’s safe to say that Bernanke doesn’t understand his role in causing the recession of 08/09 as he is now making the same mistake again. I think he believes the recession was solely triggered by the financial meltdown. That was the icing on the cake, but not the initial trigger that caused the recession.
Despite the complete inability of QE to heal the economy or job market, and since he really has no other tool, Bernanke just keeps doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result, but never getting it.
Commodities are the check that prevents Keynesian economic policies from healing the global economy. Keynesian academics either don’t understand this, or refuse to acknowledge it. Until they do, or we install Austrian economic advisers in the government, we are destined to continue making the same mistakes over and over.
So we will watch the price of oil as it rises out of its three year cycle low. If it hits $160 by next summer that will probably be enough to start the economy on the next downward spiral. If politicians get involved (and I’m sure they will) and try to impose price controls, they will multiply the damage and probably guarantee that the next economic downturn escalates into a truly catastrophic depression.
Until we see the spike in oil and the corresponding damage to the economy, no one has any business try to short anything, well maybe bonds, but even that will be risky because the Fed is going to be actively trying to prop the bond market up and keep interest rates artificially low.
All in all there is going to be so much money to be made on the long side, especially in precious metals, that no one needs to fool around with puny little gains on the short side, especially in a market that is going to be hell to trade from the short side. The time to sell short will be in 2014 after the dollar’s next three year cycle low. The dollar’s rally out of that bottom will correspond with the next global economic collapse, ultimately caused by the decisions made by the ECB and the Fed this past week. I dare say if they could see the damage their decisions are going to inflict upon the world and the dire unintended consequences, maybe they would finally stop kicking the can down the road and let the economy heal naturally. Of course that would entail several years of severe pain and politicians, as we all know, are extremely allergic to that.
2014-2015 is when we are going to see the stock market drop 60-75% and the next great leg down in this secular bear market. But until then there’s probably a pretty good chance we are going to see the S&P at new all time-highs in the next 6 months – 12 months.
Source
At this point all the pieces are in place for the inflationary spike and currency crisis I’ve been predicting for 2014. We now have open ended QE that is tied to economic output and unemployment. But since debasing currencies has historically never been the cure for the bursting of a credit bubble, all the Fed is going to produce is spiraling inflation. So as this progresses we are going to see the Fed printing faster and faster as the result they are looking for never materializes. This is what will ultimately drive the currency crisis at the dollar’s next three year cycle low in 2014.
At this point, watch the price of oil if you want to know when the next recession is going to begin. As I’ve pointed out many times in the past, recessions (well, at least since World War II) have all been preceded by a sharp spike in the price of energy. Any move of 100% or more in a year or less, has historically been the straw that breaks the camel's back. Modern economies cannot survive that kind of shock. It invariably triggers the collapse of consumer discretionary spending and economic activity comes to a grinding halt.
In 2007 oil surged out of the 3 year cycle low into a parabolic advance as Bernanke trashed the dollar in the vain attempt to halt the sub-prime collapse. That 200% spike in oil is what tipped the economy over into recession, which was then magnified in the fall of `08 as the financial bubble and debt markets imploded.
I think it’s safe to say that Bernanke doesn’t understand his role in causing the recession of 08/09 as he is now making the same mistake again. I think he believes the recession was solely triggered by the financial meltdown. That was the icing on the cake, but not the initial trigger that caused the recession.
Despite the complete inability of QE to heal the economy or job market, and since he really has no other tool, Bernanke just keeps doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result, but never getting it.
Commodities are the check that prevents Keynesian economic policies from healing the global economy. Keynesian academics either don’t understand this, or refuse to acknowledge it. Until they do, or we install Austrian economic advisers in the government, we are destined to continue making the same mistakes over and over.
So we will watch the price of oil as it rises out of its three year cycle low. If it hits $160 by next summer that will probably be enough to start the economy on the next downward spiral. If politicians get involved (and I’m sure they will) and try to impose price controls, they will multiply the damage and probably guarantee that the next economic downturn escalates into a truly catastrophic depression.
Until we see the spike in oil and the corresponding damage to the economy, no one has any business try to short anything, well maybe bonds, but even that will be risky because the Fed is going to be actively trying to prop the bond market up and keep interest rates artificially low.
All in all there is going to be so much money to be made on the long side, especially in precious metals, that no one needs to fool around with puny little gains on the short side, especially in a market that is going to be hell to trade from the short side. The time to sell short will be in 2014 after the dollar’s next three year cycle low. The dollar’s rally out of that bottom will correspond with the next global economic collapse, ultimately caused by the decisions made by the ECB and the Fed this past week. I dare say if they could see the damage their decisions are going to inflict upon the world and the dire unintended consequences, maybe they would finally stop kicking the can down the road and let the economy heal naturally. Of course that would entail several years of severe pain and politicians, as we all know, are extremely allergic to that.
2014-2015 is when we are going to see the stock market drop 60-75% and the next great leg down in this secular bear market. But until then there’s probably a pretty good chance we are going to see the S&P at new all time-highs in the next 6 months – 12 months.
Source
Labels:
Ben Bernanke,
ECB,
Inflation,
Keynesianism,
Oil Prices,
Oil Prices Going Up,
QE3,
Recession,
US Dollar
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Commodities Fall on Greece, Economic Worries
Fears Greece may exit the euro has put pressure on commodities, as concerns it would lead to a domino effect, which could result in Spain, among other countries, abandoning the euro as well.
That would lead to a period of chaos in the region, which when combined, is the largest market in the world.
Not too many people are concerned about Greece itself, as it's largely irrelevant. It's what Greece represents in regard to other countries that strikes fear in the hearts of leaders in the region, as it does those who have been attempting to peddle the concept of a one-world order.
That and concerns over China, Japan and the United States, all of which seem to have economies that are slowing down, has commodities under extreme pressure, aided by the rise in value of the U.S. dollar against the euro, as well as other major currencies.
Because commodities are bought in U.S. dollars, that makes it more expensive for those trading in other currencies, exasperating the problem. That's why the price of gold and other commodities have been plummeting.
In Japan, machinery orders dropped 2.8 percent in March, while in the U.S. retail sales fell to the lowest growth level in April for 2012.
The Dollar Index was in positive territory for the 13th day in a row - a record, while the euro plunged to its lowest level in four months, falling as low as $1.2681.
As for Greece, until that situation is resolved, it appears commodities prices will remain under downward pressure. Even though nothing has really changed economically with the failure of the country to form a new government, the market is acting as if this is something new and that Greece is actually serious about austerity measures and paying back its debt.
If Greece does exit the euro, which, over time, is almost a surety, that could have a dramatic impact on commodity prices and the global economy because of the very real and legitimate concerns over what is going to happen with Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Spain.
That of course translates into the euro zone, where the inability to project the short-term future with any clarity will hinder the ability to obtain funding, and even if businesses and banks could access funds, it's highly unlikely they'd take the risk with the specter of uncertain growth weighing on them.
One thing that could quickly change that is the introduction of another round of quantitative easing, which would temporarily give the global economy a boost, but at the growing risk of even more debt, which already can't be paid down by governments that promised the moon to their people but are now reaping the whirlwind because of the failure of Keynesian economics.
While there is no doubt the commodity bull run isn't over, we are in a correction that seems to still have longer to go before commodities begin their upward climb in prices again.
This is why the U.S. dollar is the perceived place of safety for investors, even though currencies around the world, including the greenback, have been devastatingly debased.
That would lead to a period of chaos in the region, which when combined, is the largest market in the world.
Not too many people are concerned about Greece itself, as it's largely irrelevant. It's what Greece represents in regard to other countries that strikes fear in the hearts of leaders in the region, as it does those who have been attempting to peddle the concept of a one-world order.
That and concerns over China, Japan and the United States, all of which seem to have economies that are slowing down, has commodities under extreme pressure, aided by the rise in value of the U.S. dollar against the euro, as well as other major currencies.
Because commodities are bought in U.S. dollars, that makes it more expensive for those trading in other currencies, exasperating the problem. That's why the price of gold and other commodities have been plummeting.
In Japan, machinery orders dropped 2.8 percent in March, while in the U.S. retail sales fell to the lowest growth level in April for 2012.
The Dollar Index was in positive territory for the 13th day in a row - a record, while the euro plunged to its lowest level in four months, falling as low as $1.2681.
As for Greece, until that situation is resolved, it appears commodities prices will remain under downward pressure. Even though nothing has really changed economically with the failure of the country to form a new government, the market is acting as if this is something new and that Greece is actually serious about austerity measures and paying back its debt.
If Greece does exit the euro, which, over time, is almost a surety, that could have a dramatic impact on commodity prices and the global economy because of the very real and legitimate concerns over what is going to happen with Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Spain.
That of course translates into the euro zone, where the inability to project the short-term future with any clarity will hinder the ability to obtain funding, and even if businesses and banks could access funds, it's highly unlikely they'd take the risk with the specter of uncertain growth weighing on them.
One thing that could quickly change that is the introduction of another round of quantitative easing, which would temporarily give the global economy a boost, but at the growing risk of even more debt, which already can't be paid down by governments that promised the moon to their people but are now reaping the whirlwind because of the failure of Keynesian economics.
While there is no doubt the commodity bull run isn't over, we are in a correction that seems to still have longer to go before commodities begin their upward climb in prices again.
This is why the U.S. dollar is the perceived place of safety for investors, even though currencies around the world, including the greenback, have been devastatingly debased.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Warren Buffett Losing it? Attacks Tea Party over "Anger"
When you think of Warren Buffett, the first thought that usually comes to mind is one of the greatest investors of all time, with the trained ability to be able to consume economic data in a way that he can make extremely accurate projections of how a company will perform over the long term; something a small handful of people have the skill to do. And Buffett is among the elite in history.
Buffett's problem is in his later years he has increasingly emerged as a big government backer, and as committed to Keynesianism as anyone around, and uses his popularity to justify outrageous spending, especially by his man Obama.
It makes me wonder if the years he spend building his legacy will crumble from these last years of his life, as America rises up against the things he's supporting and backing.
Recently he made the incredible statement that Americans should quit being angry at the government, and get over it. That was a direct attack on the tea party movement, no matter how it is spun later.
After all, while the majority of Americans are already fed up with the Obama administration and their destructive policies, the tea party is the outlet of that frustration, and for Buffett to outright attack them and their anger, goes beyond his pay grade, as some politician said not that long ago.
Buffett said, "...it is not helpful to have people as unhappy as they are about what’s going on in Washington.”
As Buffett has aged, he doesn't seem as coherent as he was in his youth, and he can make what appears to be contradictory statements about the same issue.
For example, he says we shouldn't be angry, but then says things like this: “The truth is we’re running a federal deficit that’s 9 percent of gross domestic product. That’s stimulative as all get out. It’s more stimulative than any policy we’ve followed since World War II.”
He also recently stated we're still in a recession, something we've continue to say here at Commodity Surge.
So the government is stimulating beyond imagination, stealing from the future of our children and grandchildren, saying they're ready to do it again via the Federal Reserve, but we need to just relax and let the government do what it wants no matter how destructive it is.
Respected or not, Buffett is just another Obama backer who drank the Kool Aid and in a state of being mesmerized, throws away a lot of what he would have opposed in the past.
In reality, it seems Buffett has been afraid of the government because he understands the monopoly it holds, and how it extends beyond its mandate.
That's why if you ever read his Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A) quarterly reports, you'll see he never attacks the outrageous taxes corporations and individuals have to endure from the government, as he knows it'll cost him and his company when he becomes a target.
Also remember that Buffett has stated more than once in the past that he prefers monopolies in the business world, and it seems by extension, he likes how the government can be played to take advantage of their monopoly in a way to advantage Berkshire Hathaway.
In the end, I think Buffett's legacy is going to suffer for his attempt to prop up Obama and his policies, which is doubtful he would put up with from any executive in his numerous companies.
Buffett isn't stupid by any stretch of the imagination, but he abandoned the ways of his father Howard Buffett long ago, who was a champion of limited government and free markets.
It would have better for Buffett if he would have stuck to what he was best at doing, and not venture into politics, which has now stained his reputation, and brought out against the mainstream of American thinking.
Maybe people should starting thinking of boycotting his companies to show them what they think about his words and actions.
If you're not convinced the directly attacked the Tea Party, you don't see what he actually said. The public anger is being expressed through the Tea party movement, and his attempt to strip the anger away from the movement is a direct attack against it, because the healthy anger is driving the vermin out of office; both Democrats and Republicans.
This is evidently too much for even Warren Buffett to put up with, and he couldn't just leave it alone like he should have.
Buffett's problem is in his later years he has increasingly emerged as a big government backer, and as committed to Keynesianism as anyone around, and uses his popularity to justify outrageous spending, especially by his man Obama.
It makes me wonder if the years he spend building his legacy will crumble from these last years of his life, as America rises up against the things he's supporting and backing.
Recently he made the incredible statement that Americans should quit being angry at the government, and get over it. That was a direct attack on the tea party movement, no matter how it is spun later.
After all, while the majority of Americans are already fed up with the Obama administration and their destructive policies, the tea party is the outlet of that frustration, and for Buffett to outright attack them and their anger, goes beyond his pay grade, as some politician said not that long ago.
Buffett said, "...it is not helpful to have people as unhappy as they are about what’s going on in Washington.”
As Buffett has aged, he doesn't seem as coherent as he was in his youth, and he can make what appears to be contradictory statements about the same issue.
For example, he says we shouldn't be angry, but then says things like this: “The truth is we’re running a federal deficit that’s 9 percent of gross domestic product. That’s stimulative as all get out. It’s more stimulative than any policy we’ve followed since World War II.”
He also recently stated we're still in a recession, something we've continue to say here at Commodity Surge.
So the government is stimulating beyond imagination, stealing from the future of our children and grandchildren, saying they're ready to do it again via the Federal Reserve, but we need to just relax and let the government do what it wants no matter how destructive it is.
Respected or not, Buffett is just another Obama backer who drank the Kool Aid and in a state of being mesmerized, throws away a lot of what he would have opposed in the past.
In reality, it seems Buffett has been afraid of the government because he understands the monopoly it holds, and how it extends beyond its mandate.
That's why if you ever read his Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A) quarterly reports, you'll see he never attacks the outrageous taxes corporations and individuals have to endure from the government, as he knows it'll cost him and his company when he becomes a target.
Also remember that Buffett has stated more than once in the past that he prefers monopolies in the business world, and it seems by extension, he likes how the government can be played to take advantage of their monopoly in a way to advantage Berkshire Hathaway.
In the end, I think Buffett's legacy is going to suffer for his attempt to prop up Obama and his policies, which is doubtful he would put up with from any executive in his numerous companies.
Buffett isn't stupid by any stretch of the imagination, but he abandoned the ways of his father Howard Buffett long ago, who was a champion of limited government and free markets.
It would have better for Buffett if he would have stuck to what he was best at doing, and not venture into politics, which has now stained his reputation, and brought out against the mainstream of American thinking.
Maybe people should starting thinking of boycotting his companies to show them what they think about his words and actions.
If you're not convinced the directly attacked the Tea Party, you don't see what he actually said. The public anger is being expressed through the Tea party movement, and his attempt to strip the anger away from the movement is a direct attack against it, because the healthy anger is driving the vermin out of office; both Democrats and Republicans.
This is evidently too much for even Warren Buffett to put up with, and he couldn't just leave it alone like he should have.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Recession Over, Happy Days are Here Again?
The pathetic notion set forth by the National Bureau of Economic Research group that the recession has been over since 2009 can't even be taken seriously.
While they attempt to say they took other things into consideration, the key factor was the GDP. The problem and joke with that is throwing of money at the problem via the stimulus is included in the jacked up numbers of the GDP, giving the illusion of a recovery.
That's why when the gimmicks and money ran out, the naked economy was revealed to be what it continues to be: recessionary, and possibly heading to a depression.
The usual attempt to slap this type of garbage down by pointing to the obvious in relationship to no jobs being created is largely ignored, and simply identified as historically being a "lagging indicator." That was also said concerning the depressed housing market as well, among other lagging indicators.
Bizarrely they said the continuing downturn in the US could inflict long-term damage on the economy, resulting in long-term unemployment. All of this with no recession. Amazing how bad things can get in a "recovery."
One thing I do like that these people publicly stated was if there is an economic downturn, it'll be a new recession, not a continuation of the one that allegedly is over.
What time will surely tell - and hopefully will result in the removal of these people who aren't anybody from being taken seriously as economists - is the recession in fact never ended, and covering their rearends by saying if there is a new recession it's not connected to the old one, will expose their agenda and intentions.
That statement that if there is another recession it's a new one, is meaningless. We must accept their conclusion they're telling us, and they're actually trying to control the future outlook for the ongoing recession by saying it will be a new one.
In other words, it's an attempt to protect Keynesianism. If the stimulus is said to have failed, and the recession has continued on, it blows away the anemic economic theory on the spot, leaving even more confusion and needed explanations as to what is really going on.
The answer to economic weakness isn't the government or central banks, it's the removal of barriers to businesses and allowing the free market to thrive.
There can be no doubt we're still in a recession, and no manipulation of the numbers or data can change that fact. Happy days aren't here again, and there is no yellow brick road to follow. As a matter of fact we can rightly say, "goodbye yellow brick road."
While they attempt to say they took other things into consideration, the key factor was the GDP. The problem and joke with that is throwing of money at the problem via the stimulus is included in the jacked up numbers of the GDP, giving the illusion of a recovery.
That's why when the gimmicks and money ran out, the naked economy was revealed to be what it continues to be: recessionary, and possibly heading to a depression.
The usual attempt to slap this type of garbage down by pointing to the obvious in relationship to no jobs being created is largely ignored, and simply identified as historically being a "lagging indicator." That was also said concerning the depressed housing market as well, among other lagging indicators.
Bizarrely they said the continuing downturn in the US could inflict long-term damage on the economy, resulting in long-term unemployment. All of this with no recession. Amazing how bad things can get in a "recovery."
One thing I do like that these people publicly stated was if there is an economic downturn, it'll be a new recession, not a continuation of the one that allegedly is over.
What time will surely tell - and hopefully will result in the removal of these people who aren't anybody from being taken seriously as economists - is the recession in fact never ended, and covering their rearends by saying if there is a new recession it's not connected to the old one, will expose their agenda and intentions.
That statement that if there is another recession it's a new one, is meaningless. We must accept their conclusion they're telling us, and they're actually trying to control the future outlook for the ongoing recession by saying it will be a new one.
In other words, it's an attempt to protect Keynesianism. If the stimulus is said to have failed, and the recession has continued on, it blows away the anemic economic theory on the spot, leaving even more confusion and needed explanations as to what is really going on.
The answer to economic weakness isn't the government or central banks, it's the removal of barriers to businesses and allowing the free market to thrive.
There can be no doubt we're still in a recession, and no manipulation of the numbers or data can change that fact. Happy days aren't here again, and there is no yellow brick road to follow. As a matter of fact we can rightly say, "goodbye yellow brick road."
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS): Some Governments Will Default
As governments around the world refuse to cut back on their size and continue to embrace their socialists policies, the risk increases for governments to default on their debt, and according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), it's no longer if, it's going to be who and when.
It is amazing to see this unfold and be ignored by governments, as the inability to extract more money from the productive and redistribute it to the unproductive is bringing these countries down, and they fanatically hang onto their failed philosophies and economic voodoo based on socialist schemes which can no longer be supported.
Arnaud Mares, an executive director at Morgan Stanley, said this, “Governments will impose a loss on some of their stakeholders. The question is not whether they will renege on their promises, but rather upon which of their promises they will renege, and what form this default will take.”
Mares added, the sovereign debt crisis isn't just relegated to Europe, as it's a global phenomenon, “and it is not over.”
We at Commodity Surge have been amazed at the lack of coverage in the mainstream economic media, as after a few overtures and announcements from European leaders that the sovereign debt crisis was over, reporters ran for the doors to the next important financial story.
To even seriously think the crisis was over in Europe, let alone other nations of the world, after a few austerity moves, was naive at best. Even the selling of bonds in the market should have been taken largely with a grain of salt, as if decades of economic practices and mindsets can be changed by throwing money at the problem.
As in the United States and its stimulus spending, all it does is temporarily cover up the mess until the money runs out, and then it picks up again right away revealing the gasping economic patient who survives only because of the misguided attempt to maintain things as they are, even if they can't be afforded.
There is no answer but smaller government and people taking responsibility for their own lives through being productive. The game is up and the attempt to save socialism from complete collapse is nearing an end, as the great experiment is over, and it have totally failed.
How long government stubbornly hold to their promises will determine the depth of the carnage, as some simply can't believe their socialist theories and Keynesian practices are completely wrong.
They better start believing it, as the welfare of their people and survival as a nation are at stake.
It is amazing to see this unfold and be ignored by governments, as the inability to extract more money from the productive and redistribute it to the unproductive is bringing these countries down, and they fanatically hang onto their failed philosophies and economic voodoo based on socialist schemes which can no longer be supported.
Arnaud Mares, an executive director at Morgan Stanley, said this, “Governments will impose a loss on some of their stakeholders. The question is not whether they will renege on their promises, but rather upon which of their promises they will renege, and what form this default will take.”
Mares added, the sovereign debt crisis isn't just relegated to Europe, as it's a global phenomenon, “and it is not over.”
We at Commodity Surge have been amazed at the lack of coverage in the mainstream economic media, as after a few overtures and announcements from European leaders that the sovereign debt crisis was over, reporters ran for the doors to the next important financial story.
To even seriously think the crisis was over in Europe, let alone other nations of the world, after a few austerity moves, was naive at best. Even the selling of bonds in the market should have been taken largely with a grain of salt, as if decades of economic practices and mindsets can be changed by throwing money at the problem.
As in the United States and its stimulus spending, all it does is temporarily cover up the mess until the money runs out, and then it picks up again right away revealing the gasping economic patient who survives only because of the misguided attempt to maintain things as they are, even if they can't be afforded.
There is no answer but smaller government and people taking responsibility for their own lives through being productive. The game is up and the attempt to save socialism from complete collapse is nearing an end, as the great experiment is over, and it have totally failed.
How long government stubbornly hold to their promises will determine the depth of the carnage, as some simply can't believe their socialist theories and Keynesian practices are completely wrong.
They better start believing it, as the welfare of their people and survival as a nation are at stake.
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