Showing posts with label Jim Rogers Agriculture. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Rogers Agriculture. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Jim Rogers: Recession Coming in 2013, 2014
Jim Rogers continues to reiterate his economic outlook going forward, which isn't a pretty one in his estimation, and he's surely right.
In an interview with Breakout, Rogers said about every 4 to 6 years America has gone through contraction and slowdowns since the beginning of the nation, and that isn't likely to change in light of the lack of results from endless simulating from central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve in the U.S.
"Every four to six years since the beginning of the Republic we have had slowdowns in America," Rogers noted. "It's always happened and it's going to happen again."
Rogers said he sees 2013 and 2014 being difficult years, and recommends investors to plan accordingly.
In the third quarter in the United States, the growth rate was significantly downwardly revised from 1.7 percent to 1.3 percent, signaling things are already slowing down, with little to show that it will change any time soon.
Rogers said, "2013, 2014 you should be very worried and you should prepare yourself."
The global economy also looks weaker than anticipated as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also downwardly revised its global economic growth numbers from 3.6 percent to 3.3 percent.
Some areas Rogers sees as important to invest in are gold and silver, as well as his main focus now: farmland. He recently invested in farmland in Australia, and continues to look for other farm assets to own.
Along with agriculture, which Rogers sees as being one of the top performers for years ahead because of the need to boost food production; saying that there is no more land being grown while the global population continues to rise.
Because of the turmoil in the markets, Rogers is long some currencies, including the U.S. dollar, which he has called a "flawed" currency in the past.
There he's investing in the U.S. dollar not because he sees it as being strong, but because he knows with the coming turmoil that investors will flock to it because of perceived safety. So he's investing in the U.S. dollar in relationship to the inevitable migration of capital there, which will push the value of it up in the short term in his estimation.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Jim Rogers Says Commodities will Come Roaring Back
Some have wrongly believed that the end of the commodity super cycle is over, but Jim Rogers isn't one of them, as he says the recent downturn is only a temporary setback, and because supplies remain constrained, the upward move in prices will continue for some time.
Rogers stated in an interview with Mineweb, that "this is nothing more than a blip. The bull market will continue until a lot of supply comes on stream and the problems since 2008 ensure not a lot of supply is coming on stream."
Why it's different this time around as far as the length of the commodity bull market, is historically companies are starting to bring more supply online after about 8 or 9 years of higher prices. This time around, because of the crises in 2008, that temporarily halted much of the expected boost in production, resulting in a slow down in supply of commodities.
Rogers said concerning expansion of commodities companies, that "All these guys are delaying or suspending or cancelling new supply which is bullish. Until the supply comes we're not going to have an end to the bull market and, certainly in agriculture, my goodness, inventories are near historic lows, we have serious shortages of everything in agriculture developing, including farmers."
As for China, which is the major impetus behind commodity demand, Rogers sees them possibly loosening up their money supply, suggesting more demand for commodities, although he says that "China has loosened up too early every time in the last decade, which is why the real estate bubble has continued and it's gotten worse. So it looks as though China is going to loosen up again and in my view they're going to loosen up again too early this time around, and you'll probably have a continuation of the same old thing - more inflation and perhaps excesses in real estate again."
Concerning where investors should place their money in regard to commodities, Rogers concluded they should look for those commodities which have fallen the most in price for the place to begin.
Rogers stated in an interview with Mineweb, that "this is nothing more than a blip. The bull market will continue until a lot of supply comes on stream and the problems since 2008 ensure not a lot of supply is coming on stream."
Why it's different this time around as far as the length of the commodity bull market, is historically companies are starting to bring more supply online after about 8 or 9 years of higher prices. This time around, because of the crises in 2008, that temporarily halted much of the expected boost in production, resulting in a slow down in supply of commodities.
Rogers said concerning expansion of commodities companies, that "All these guys are delaying or suspending or cancelling new supply which is bullish. Until the supply comes we're not going to have an end to the bull market and, certainly in agriculture, my goodness, inventories are near historic lows, we have serious shortages of everything in agriculture developing, including farmers."
As for China, which is the major impetus behind commodity demand, Rogers sees them possibly loosening up their money supply, suggesting more demand for commodities, although he says that "China has loosened up too early every time in the last decade, which is why the real estate bubble has continued and it's gotten worse. So it looks as though China is going to loosen up again and in my view they're going to loosen up again too early this time around, and you'll probably have a continuation of the same old thing - more inflation and perhaps excesses in real estate again."
Concerning where investors should place their money in regard to commodities, Rogers concluded they should look for those commodities which have fallen the most in price for the place to begin.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Jim Rogers Begins Farm Acquisitions in Australia
Jim Rogers has been saying for at least a couple of years that the future wealthy will be farmers, or at least those that invest in farms in certain strategic places around the world.
Rogers, as usual, is putting his money where his mouth is, recently launching a new rural land fund with approximately $350 million available to acquired farming land.
According to Rogers, because Australia is located so close to the Asian markets, that is the place where farming will grow the quickest and fastest, and so is targeting the northern NSW in the country.
He sees this as the season of time to get into the sector before the price of farmland skyrockets. Rogers says food shortages will get worse, and the price of farmland will jump as a result. General inflation is another factor in the agricultural mix.
How the fund will work, which is a closed, unlisted fund called the Laguna Bay Pastoral Company, is to first attract investors from the Australian domestic market before opening it up to those outside the country.
The fund is different in that it will partner with high quality farmers in the region who are among the top 10 percent in farming earnings in the region.
Those farmers will continue to run the acquired properties and also give suggestions as to other properties that would be worth taking a look at for acquisition purposes.
Overall, the fund is about getting the best farms and farmers. Rogers sees a rise in price of soft commodities in Australia because of the reliance of Asia on the products.
Rogers says it's nowhere near to late to get into the farming sector, as there is a lot of time left before inflation makes it cost prohibitive to invest in the sector.
It's a good example of those interested in investing in farmland in any quality area of the world.
You want to buy up great farms run by great managers. Do that and you've solved most of the efficiencies and profit challenges.
For those wanting a piece of the action without acquiring farms and their managers, most farm-related public companies and/or ETFs should do well, as will a number of futures.
One recent example is the fertilizer industry. When the cost of corn soared in response to the drought in the Midwest of America, the price of fertilizer shot up as well, with fertilizer companies jumping from 10 to 15 percent within a few short months.
That's because farmers whose crops are thriving are going to have much more capital to spend on inputs and farm equipment; or any other vital part of the farming process.
Multiply that with rising inflation and you see the potential in a wide variety of agricultural related segments.
Rogers, as usual, is putting his money where his mouth is, recently launching a new rural land fund with approximately $350 million available to acquired farming land.
According to Rogers, because Australia is located so close to the Asian markets, that is the place where farming will grow the quickest and fastest, and so is targeting the northern NSW in the country.
He sees this as the season of time to get into the sector before the price of farmland skyrockets. Rogers says food shortages will get worse, and the price of farmland will jump as a result. General inflation is another factor in the agricultural mix.
How the fund will work, which is a closed, unlisted fund called the Laguna Bay Pastoral Company, is to first attract investors from the Australian domestic market before opening it up to those outside the country.
The fund is different in that it will partner with high quality farmers in the region who are among the top 10 percent in farming earnings in the region.
Those farmers will continue to run the acquired properties and also give suggestions as to other properties that would be worth taking a look at for acquisition purposes.
Overall, the fund is about getting the best farms and farmers. Rogers sees a rise in price of soft commodities in Australia because of the reliance of Asia on the products.
Rogers says it's nowhere near to late to get into the farming sector, as there is a lot of time left before inflation makes it cost prohibitive to invest in the sector.
It's a good example of those interested in investing in farmland in any quality area of the world.
You want to buy up great farms run by great managers. Do that and you've solved most of the efficiencies and profit challenges.
For those wanting a piece of the action without acquiring farms and their managers, most farm-related public companies and/or ETFs should do well, as will a number of futures.
One recent example is the fertilizer industry. When the cost of corn soared in response to the drought in the Midwest of America, the price of fertilizer shot up as well, with fertilizer companies jumping from 10 to 15 percent within a few short months.
That's because farmers whose crops are thriving are going to have much more capital to spend on inputs and farm equipment; or any other vital part of the farming process.
Multiply that with rising inflation and you see the potential in a wide variety of agricultural related segments.
Monday, May 17, 2010
What Marc Faber Likes ...
Marc Faber said in a recent interview that there is one particular investment sector he particularly likes, and that is commodities. Within commodities he likes agriculture, which he views as getting very cheap.
Commodity investment guru Jim Rogers has been saying the same thing for at least the last year, with the idea that agriculture prices are depressed, and ultimately they'll start to rebound, as demand isn't going to ever go away, and will only increase.
For the three favorite picks of Faber in the agriculture sector, he likes three of the majors: corn, soybeans and wheat.
The timing is everything of course with all of this, and it's impossible to know when agriculture will finally start to move forward again.
But it's only a matter of when and not if, and then, not only will these major crops start to rise in value, but there will be an additional price rise for fertilizer companies and other firms connected to the sector as all elements related to agriculture benefit.
Commodity investment guru Jim Rogers has been saying the same thing for at least the last year, with the idea that agriculture prices are depressed, and ultimately they'll start to rebound, as demand isn't going to ever go away, and will only increase.
For the three favorite picks of Faber in the agriculture sector, he likes three of the majors: corn, soybeans and wheat.
The timing is everything of course with all of this, and it's impossible to know when agriculture will finally start to move forward again.
But it's only a matter of when and not if, and then, not only will these major crops start to rise in value, but there will be an additional price rise for fertilizer companies and other firms connected to the sector as all elements related to agriculture benefit.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Jim Rogers: Agriculture Top Commodity Choice
Jim Rogers has been beating the agricultural commodity drum for some time, and he continues to say that sector is the most depressed of the commodity sector, and over the long term should outperform all other commodities.
Rogers said the agricultural sector is "very depressed," and over the long haul it'll end up going up.
Even sugar - which Rogers likes - has risen strongly over the last two years, but as Rogers notes, it is still depressed in contrast to its all time high.
Most other commodities have strengthened over the last couple of years, and while some will continue to go up, agriculture has the most upside potential in the years ahead in the view of Rogers.
Rogers said the agricultural sector is "very depressed," and over the long haul it'll end up going up.
Even sugar - which Rogers likes - has risen strongly over the last two years, but as Rogers notes, it is still depressed in contrast to its all time high.
Most other commodities have strengthened over the last couple of years, and while some will continue to go up, agriculture has the most upside potential in the years ahead in the view of Rogers.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Jim Rogers: India and Agriculture
Jim Rogers and why India is Failing at Agriculture
Jim Rogers stated in a recent interview with the Economic Times that India should be an agriculture powerhouse, but because of water issues and endless government regulations, the nation continues to suffer when they should be one of the leading agricultural nations in the world.
In the short term, Rogers said if India doesn't do something about the water challenges in the northern part of India, there won't be an Indian agricultural story.
Rogers continues, saying everything in India is conducive to successful farming, as they have great land, soil and weather. The solution to Rogers is the government needs to get out of the way with its regulations and then the farming sector will thrive.
India has unfortunately had to import much of its food rather than be an exporter.
Jim Rogers and why India is Failing at Agriculture
Jim Rogers stated in a recent interview with the Economic Times that India should be an agriculture powerhouse, but because of water issues and endless government regulations, the nation continues to suffer when they should be one of the leading agricultural nations in the world.
In the short term, Rogers said if India doesn't do something about the water challenges in the northern part of India, there won't be an Indian agricultural story.
Rogers continues, saying everything in India is conducive to successful farming, as they have great land, soil and weather. The solution to Rogers is the government needs to get out of the way with its regulations and then the farming sector will thrive.
India has unfortunately had to import much of its food rather than be an exporter.
Jim Rogers and why India is Failing at Agriculture
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Marc Faber, Jim Rogers: Buy Farmland and Gold
Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Farmland and Gold
There are two things Marc Faber and Jim Rogers have been telling investors for a long time, and that has been to buy farmland and invest in gold, with a portion of that being in physical gold.
Faber repeated that mantra recently in Tokyo when talking to a group of institutional investors in Tokyo.
Faber added that fund managers need to take into account what the effects of major disruptions could have on the assets they hold, as there is sure to be unpredictable major events beyond simple volatility in the market.
Saying if those events happen to be attackes, they're almost sure to happen in the cities, making buying a home in the countryside somewhere an important part of their personal investment strategy; beyond only making money.
As far as regular investment strategies, Faber said agriculture is a good bet along with companies providing water treatment technology, as he sees both having the potential for major shortages in the future, especially in Asia.
Faber reiterates what others are saying, and that it the uncontrollable debt of the American government is a disaster, and he believes the U.S. is on the verge of bankruptcy in the not too distant future.
Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Farmland and Gold
There are two things Marc Faber and Jim Rogers have been telling investors for a long time, and that has been to buy farmland and invest in gold, with a portion of that being in physical gold.
Faber repeated that mantra recently in Tokyo when talking to a group of institutional investors in Tokyo.
Faber added that fund managers need to take into account what the effects of major disruptions could have on the assets they hold, as there is sure to be unpredictable major events beyond simple volatility in the market.
Saying if those events happen to be attackes, they're almost sure to happen in the cities, making buying a home in the countryside somewhere an important part of their personal investment strategy; beyond only making money.
As far as regular investment strategies, Faber said agriculture is a good bet along with companies providing water treatment technology, as he sees both having the potential for major shortages in the future, especially in Asia.
Faber reiterates what others are saying, and that it the uncontrollable debt of the American government is a disaster, and he believes the U.S. is on the verge of bankruptcy in the not too distant future.
Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Farmland and Gold
Monday, February 22, 2010
Jim Rogers: Britain Bankrupt
Jim Rogers on what to invest in
In a recent interview, commodity investor Jim Rogers stated that Britain is bankrupt, and there's not a bank in the country that's not in trouble.
Other than oil and banking, the UK hasn't had much going for it, and oil is depleting while the UK banking industry is in shambles he said.
Jim Rogers reiterated that investing in real assets is the way to go over the next 30 years, and those that produce "real things," will dominate the business landscape.
Rogers recommends, as mentioned, real assets, raw materials, commodities, and to stay away from the U.S. dollar and sterling for sure. The currency Rogers says he's investing in now is the yen.
He also said he is buying China shares again, signifying he things they are near a bottom.
Jim Rogers on what to invest in
In a recent interview, commodity investor Jim Rogers stated that Britain is bankrupt, and there's not a bank in the country that's not in trouble.
Other than oil and banking, the UK hasn't had much going for it, and oil is depleting while the UK banking industry is in shambles he said.
Jim Rogers reiterated that investing in real assets is the way to go over the next 30 years, and those that produce "real things," will dominate the business landscape.
Rogers recommends, as mentioned, real assets, raw materials, commodities, and to stay away from the U.S. dollar and sterling for sure. The currency Rogers says he's investing in now is the yen.
He also said he is buying China shares again, signifying he things they are near a bottom.
Jim Rogers on what to invest in
Monday, February 8, 2010
Jim Rogers: Torrid Agriculture Prices
Jim Rogers: Agriculture Prices
The price of food and agricultural goods should continue to rise for years into the future, according to commodity guru Jim Rogers, as "The inventories of food are the lowest not in years but in decades. Supply is going to remain down since we have serious production problems. At the same time people are eating more and we are burning some of our foods as fuels.”
This combination won't change unless governments quit the debacle of using corn to turn into ethanol. That at least would keep the prices of corn relatively in check and available to livestock and human beings at a decent price. If not, corn itself and anything it feeds will increase in price as a result.
Rogers has said numerous times in the recent past that those that own the fancy cars in the next 10 to 20 years will be those who turn in their briefcases for farming. I think he's right!
Still, there are numerous ways you can play agriculture, from those providing equipment and seeds to to those providing the fertilizers and other essentials to operate the business.
Water is another key thing to look at over the next years as populations in many areas of the world continue to grow exponentially, with world population growth estimated to be at over 9 billion by 2050.
Jim Rogers: Agriculture Prices
The price of food and agricultural goods should continue to rise for years into the future, according to commodity guru Jim Rogers, as "The inventories of food are the lowest not in years but in decades. Supply is going to remain down since we have serious production problems. At the same time people are eating more and we are burning some of our foods as fuels.”
This combination won't change unless governments quit the debacle of using corn to turn into ethanol. That at least would keep the prices of corn relatively in check and available to livestock and human beings at a decent price. If not, corn itself and anything it feeds will increase in price as a result.
Rogers has said numerous times in the recent past that those that own the fancy cars in the next 10 to 20 years will be those who turn in their briefcases for farming. I think he's right!
Still, there are numerous ways you can play agriculture, from those providing equipment and seeds to to those providing the fertilizers and other essentials to operate the business.
Water is another key thing to look at over the next years as populations in many areas of the world continue to grow exponentially, with world population growth estimated to be at over 9 billion by 2050.
Jim Rogers: Agriculture Prices
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Agricultural Prices to Skyrocket Says Jim Rogers
Agricultural commodity prices going up
Jim Rogers has continued his evangelization of commodities, especially agricultural commodities which he believes will surge in price over the next couple of years as food shortages happen across the world.
The best way to invest in agricultural commodities, and all commodities for that matter, in Rogers' estimation, is to invest in commodities directly rather than in commodity companies.
Rogers has also recently slammed the idea that China is about to experience a bubble in the country, and says those that assert that don't understand the underlying fundamentals in the country.
One other important element concerning agriculture prices is there seems to be a glut on the market in some food sectors, making it seem there is far too much food, while in reality it is probably only connected to the major foods like wheat, corn and soybeans.
Of course if that glut continues, Rogers would have to re-think his outlook for agriculture. But for now, it seems he may be right, even though in this particular season there are plenty of the three major foods available globally.
Agricultural commodity prices going up
Jim Rogers has continued his evangelization of commodities, especially agricultural commodities which he believes will surge in price over the next couple of years as food shortages happen across the world.
The best way to invest in agricultural commodities, and all commodities for that matter, in Rogers' estimation, is to invest in commodities directly rather than in commodity companies.
Rogers has also recently slammed the idea that China is about to experience a bubble in the country, and says those that assert that don't understand the underlying fundamentals in the country.
One other important element concerning agriculture prices is there seems to be a glut on the market in some food sectors, making it seem there is far too much food, while in reality it is probably only connected to the major foods like wheat, corn and soybeans.
Of course if that glut continues, Rogers would have to re-think his outlook for agriculture. But for now, it seems he may be right, even though in this particular season there are plenty of the three major foods available globally.
Agricultural commodity prices going up
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Jim Rogers | Inflation Already Here
Jim Rogers and Inflation
Inflation is a surety says Jim Rogers, and in fact we're already experiencing inflation, even though some governments are lying about it.
Rogers cites a couple of issues confirming inflation is already here and will continue on for some time. First, he points us in the direction of shortage around the world in almost everything. Consequently, in that environment prices will continue to rise.
Second, countries haven't stopped printing money, and printing money always brings with it the consequences of inflation.
Not only are those things happening now, but they'll continue to happen in the future.
Again, this is why commodities will be such a good place to be, although we do need to keep track of which individual commodities are at their top prices, and which ones are suppressed.
AS of this writing, commodities like silver and agriculture are at good prices, and so are something to watch carefully.
Jim Rogers and Inflation
Inflation is a surety says Jim Rogers, and in fact we're already experiencing inflation, even though some governments are lying about it.
Rogers cites a couple of issues confirming inflation is already here and will continue on for some time. First, he points us in the direction of shortage around the world in almost everything. Consequently, in that environment prices will continue to rise.
Second, countries haven't stopped printing money, and printing money always brings with it the consequences of inflation.
Not only are those things happening now, but they'll continue to happen in the future.
Again, this is why commodities will be such a good place to be, although we do need to keep track of which individual commodities are at their top prices, and which ones are suppressed.
AS of this writing, commodities like silver and agriculture are at good prices, and so are something to watch carefully.
Jim Rogers and Inflation
Monday, January 4, 2010
Rogers International Commodities Index fund
Rogers International Commodities Index fund
Jim Rogers is known around the world for his expertise in commodities, as well as unique perspective on what's driving the global economy; whether it's positive or negative.
A number of years ago the prolific investor looked for a way to invest in a basket of commodities and didn't find much if anything that focused on that particular market.
So to that end, he designed the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI) fund, which allows investors to invest in commodities in a way that is weighted by the commodity guru himself.
As Rogers points out in the description of the fund, it is not only weighted with regional or American-focused consumption, but takes in the entire world, as noted by the inclusion of rice in the index, one the more consumed foods in the world, yet left off a number of indexes.
For the purpose of making it easier for potential investors to track the Rogers International Commodities Index fund, Rogers only includes commodities traded on recognized exchanges. That way verification of performance is easy, quick and trustworthy.
A total of 35 commodities are traded on the Rogers International Commodities Index fund, and that's so a wide range of commodities can be included, giving investors access to an accurate measurement of overall commodity performance, and not overly weighted raw materials which could skew results in odd and unrepresentative ways.
The Rogers International Commodities Index fund is built to appeal to long term investors, and weights commodities accordingly. The purpose is to offer consistency and and stability that can be counted on year after year.
That has worked well for the fund over the 11 years it has operated, as it has produced a solid return of about 20 percent annually since its inception, and that has included two bubble markets it has had to operate under.
With commodities in the middle of a bull market and emerging markets set to start spending again, it's a good bet that the Rogers International Commodities Index fund, and other commodity funds will perform strongly for years into the future.
Rogers International Commodities Index fund
Jim Rogers is known around the world for his expertise in commodities, as well as unique perspective on what's driving the global economy; whether it's positive or negative.
A number of years ago the prolific investor looked for a way to invest in a basket of commodities and didn't find much if anything that focused on that particular market.
So to that end, he designed the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI) fund, which allows investors to invest in commodities in a way that is weighted by the commodity guru himself.
As Rogers points out in the description of the fund, it is not only weighted with regional or American-focused consumption, but takes in the entire world, as noted by the inclusion of rice in the index, one the more consumed foods in the world, yet left off a number of indexes.
For the purpose of making it easier for potential investors to track the Rogers International Commodities Index fund, Rogers only includes commodities traded on recognized exchanges. That way verification of performance is easy, quick and trustworthy.
A total of 35 commodities are traded on the Rogers International Commodities Index fund, and that's so a wide range of commodities can be included, giving investors access to an accurate measurement of overall commodity performance, and not overly weighted raw materials which could skew results in odd and unrepresentative ways.
The Rogers International Commodities Index fund is built to appeal to long term investors, and weights commodities accordingly. The purpose is to offer consistency and and stability that can be counted on year after year.
That has worked well for the fund over the 11 years it has operated, as it has produced a solid return of about 20 percent annually since its inception, and that has included two bubble markets it has had to operate under.
With commodities in the middle of a bull market and emerging markets set to start spending again, it's a good bet that the Rogers International Commodities Index fund, and other commodity funds will perform strongly for years into the future.
Rogers International Commodities Index fund
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Jim Rogers: Commodities Great Investment No Matter How Economy Goes
Commodity investor Jim Rogers says it doesn't matter whether the global economy is good or bad, commodities will do great for some time because historically when governments print money, commodity prices go up.
If and when the global economy does improve, than the growing middle classes in Asia, especially China, will generate huge demand for a large number of products, many of which will be commodities directly, or at minimum, commodities indirectly, through products which are manufactured using specific commodities as components of the process.
And as mentioned, if the economy doesn't improve for some time ahead, commodities are a great place to be based on investors looking to raw materials and some precious metals to protect against inflation and dropping value in the U.S. dollar. Printing money will continue to pressure the U.S. dollar downward in value, so that should be a big part of the picture with commodities in the years ahead.
Rogers pays little attention to the inevitable swing in prices of commodities, as that's part of investing in the sector. What he's looking for now is commodities that have been depressed like agriculture, silver, natural gas and palladium.
While he remains bullish on gold, he's not going to buy any at this time, while he will continue to hold what he does own as well.
Rogers says we're in a cyclical bull market, and he has learned the hard way not to short commodities during those times.
The Rogers Commodity Index, which Rogers set up, has outperformed its more well know competitor the Reuters-Jefferies CRB commodities index in 2009, as it's up by close to 30 percent this year, while Reuters-Jefferies is only up by 17 percent.
If and when the global economy does improve, than the growing middle classes in Asia, especially China, will generate huge demand for a large number of products, many of which will be commodities directly, or at minimum, commodities indirectly, through products which are manufactured using specific commodities as components of the process.
And as mentioned, if the economy doesn't improve for some time ahead, commodities are a great place to be based on investors looking to raw materials and some precious metals to protect against inflation and dropping value in the U.S. dollar. Printing money will continue to pressure the U.S. dollar downward in value, so that should be a big part of the picture with commodities in the years ahead.
Rogers pays little attention to the inevitable swing in prices of commodities, as that's part of investing in the sector. What he's looking for now is commodities that have been depressed like agriculture, silver, natural gas and palladium.
While he remains bullish on gold, he's not going to buy any at this time, while he will continue to hold what he does own as well.
Rogers says we're in a cyclical bull market, and he has learned the hard way not to short commodities during those times.
The Rogers Commodity Index, which Rogers set up, has outperformed its more well know competitor the Reuters-Jefferies CRB commodities index in 2009, as it's up by close to 30 percent this year, while Reuters-Jefferies is only up by 17 percent.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Jim Rogers Points to Agriculture, Silver and Palladium as Good Commodity Investments
While most of us that know Jim Rogers are familiar with his bullish outlook on agriculture, but he has been slow to add anything else to what he thinks will be big movers, other than saying all commodities over time will rise as demand from emerging middle classes in Asia drive up the prices.
But he has broken with his generalities to give his thoughts on what other specific commodities look good in the short term, and they are silver and palladium.
I do know a lot about silver and know that has a great short- and long-term future for prices going higher. But palladium I'm not as knowledgeable about, and so it was good to hear Rogers mention it, as it will get me to do some research to see why he's bullish on it now.
Rogers major reason for overall commodity bullishness is the demand factor from Asia, but also the fact that expansion of commodity production capacity has been almost zero, and so the supply will not be able to meet the demand, so commodity prices will continue to rise.
But he has broken with his generalities to give his thoughts on what other specific commodities look good in the short term, and they are silver and palladium.
I do know a lot about silver and know that has a great short- and long-term future for prices going higher. But palladium I'm not as knowledgeable about, and so it was good to hear Rogers mention it, as it will get me to do some research to see why he's bullish on it now.
Rogers major reason for overall commodity bullishness is the demand factor from Asia, but also the fact that expansion of commodity production capacity has been almost zero, and so the supply will not be able to meet the demand, so commodity prices will continue to rise.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Peter Schiff Bullish on Agriculture
Peter Schiff Likes Agriculture
A number of highly qualified investors have been bullish on agriculture for some time, and the latest maintaining that position is Peter Schiff, who said in a recent interview on CNBC that he is especially bullish on the agricutural industry in general, and also the fertilizer industry within those parameters.
Confirming what we talk a lot about on Commodity Surge, Schiff added that the Chinese will continue to buy up commodities as their standard of living continues to rise, and their growing middle class will create great demand for commodities going forward.
Another interesting insight from Schiff is the reason stock prices are rising at this time isn't because of stocks going up because of increased value, but because the U.S. dollar is going down. The dollar's collapse and decreased value is the determing factor there, according to Schiff.
Talking about Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Schiff made an interesting observation I've never heard before, and that is that Wal-Mart could become the next Saks Fifth Avenue based on their inability to import cheap products from the Chinese any longer.
Investor Jim Rogers has also been bullish on agriculture for years, and looks upon it as the growth vehicle for the future, based primarily on less land available for crops and growing demand.
Peter Schiff Likes Agriculture
A number of highly qualified investors have been bullish on agriculture for some time, and the latest maintaining that position is Peter Schiff, who said in a recent interview on CNBC that he is especially bullish on the agricutural industry in general, and also the fertilizer industry within those parameters.
Confirming what we talk a lot about on Commodity Surge, Schiff added that the Chinese will continue to buy up commodities as their standard of living continues to rise, and their growing middle class will create great demand for commodities going forward.
Another interesting insight from Schiff is the reason stock prices are rising at this time isn't because of stocks going up because of increased value, but because the U.S. dollar is going down. The dollar's collapse and decreased value is the determing factor there, according to Schiff.
Talking about Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Schiff made an interesting observation I've never heard before, and that is that Wal-Mart could become the next Saks Fifth Avenue based on their inability to import cheap products from the Chinese any longer.
Investor Jim Rogers has also been bullish on agriculture for years, and looks upon it as the growth vehicle for the future, based primarily on less land available for crops and growing demand.
Peter Schiff Likes Agriculture
Monday, September 21, 2009
Jim Rogers: Commodities and Inflation
Commodity Prices Rising
Talking about the historical pattern that arises when governments print money, Jim Roges said that there's no doubt that commodity prices will continue to rise as a consequence of those ongoing practices.
Not only is America printing money, Rogers notes, but the whole world is, and that will fuel commodity price increases for some time into the future.
Another factor will be the locked up credit markets which disallow farmers from getting loans, as well as other commodity-related sectors like mining companies.
So even if none of that was happening, Rogers has asserted in the past that the emerging markets in China primarily, and secondarily the other BRIC countries, would have driven up commodity prices on their own. Now with these other factors added in, it looks like this will have an even more dramatic impact on commodity prices rising.
Talking about the historical pattern that arises when governments print money, Jim Roges said that there's no doubt that commodity prices will continue to rise as a consequence of those ongoing practices.
Not only is America printing money, Rogers notes, but the whole world is, and that will fuel commodity price increases for some time into the future.
Another factor will be the locked up credit markets which disallow farmers from getting loans, as well as other commodity-related sectors like mining companies.
So even if none of that was happening, Rogers has asserted in the past that the emerging markets in China primarily, and secondarily the other BRIC countries, would have driven up commodity prices on their own. Now with these other factors added in, it looks like this will have an even more dramatic impact on commodity prices rising.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Commodities Still Hot - Jim Rogers
The commodities rally seems to have paused. The Rogers International Commodity Index has come off 13% since June 12. This pullback, essentially as I can see, is because of tin, energy and silver even as some of those agri commodities like orange juice, sugar and cotton have done well. What are your expectations going forward for commodities?
That's the way I know you know about commodities. You read The Economic Times and your ET TV. So, you know that the markets always have corrections whether they are going up or down. Nothing goes straight up or down forever. So, it's having a normal correction. In my view, the best place to be is in real assetscommodities, because if the world is going to recover, they (commodities) will recover first because of the shortages and if the world economy is not going to recover, they are still the best place to be, because governments around the world are printing huge amounts of money. So, if you got to own something, I don't much to own besides commodities.
In India, we are getting worried about the monsoon. We are looking out of our windows and not finding any clouds, and there is also talk about El Nino weather formation. Is this something you would advise investors to keep an eye on?
Of course, I would. The world's inventories of food are at the lowest they have been in decades. We haven't have had any serious weather problems around the world for several decades as a matter of fact. So, with fairly good weather, we have been having bad harvest or we have been consuming more than we have been producing. Can you imagine what's going to happen to the price of agriculture if we have bad weather around the world?
The last time we met here in Mumbai you had a sachet of sugar in your pocket and you pulled it out to underscore your point of impending shortage about agri commodities. You have been right about sugar as far as we can see from the price charts. What are you hiding today in your pockets? A silver coin, a hip flask full of crude oil, may be?
I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I don't know how you knew. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver. The dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the stocks rally in March. Commodities have risen 94% of the time that the dollar has fallen. A very strong correlation. Do we expect the dollar decline and the commodity run-up, therefore, to continue? It's not always a strong correlation. You are right; there has been (a correlation) in recent months, recent years even. But no, there are many times when the dollar and commodities go entirely separate ways. So, don't get it into your head, and I know many times that the press do have it in their head that commodities and dollars go opposite ways. I am not terribly bullish on the dollar in long term. US dollars are a terribly flawed currency and down the road I hope I don't own any US dollars. I still own some of them at the moment, but it's not getting better for the US. The dollar any way is getting worse. The fundamental for commodities continue to improve. The fundamentals for the US dollar do not continue to improve. They are deteriorating.
Are you still sticking to your prediction of a currency crisis sometime in a year or two?
Yes. The world is full of currency imbalances and economic trade imbalances would have to be resolved or corrected, one way or the other. Unfortunately, given the state of politicians and it's not just the current state of politicians, but politicians throughout history have usually got things wrong. So, we are going to have some problems in the currency market. I don't know when. May be not. I may be wrong. But having seen that sort of thing before in history somebody would have to pay the price whether it's the pound sterling or the US dollar or the rupee, I have no clue. No idea where it’s going to stop, but we are going to have problems in the currency markets.
What’s your view on global equities now? Do you think emerging markets’ premium over developed country markets has gone a way too high?
I don't pay any attention to things like emerging markets premium. You talk about it on TV, but every market is different. Why can't I just go out and buy emerging markets when it is likely to go broke. Every market is different, every country is different, every economy is different and every sector of the economies is different. Just because you are in an emerging country does not mean you are going to make money if you get the wrong sector. I have not bought any stocks anywhere in the world in the last couple of years except China. I did buy some Chinese shares back in October-November. I have not been buying anything other than that for some time. I have been worried about the world economy, about the world stock markets. If you got to be somewhere and if there is going to be a recovery, it will show up in commodities best of all, and if there is not going to be any recovery, commodities are still a better place to be.
So what are you buying nowadays?
If you want to put in your money somewhere, put it in commodities. That's the only thing I bought recently. I have bought some yen and swiss francs. If you know enough about currencies to figure out who is going to benefit, if I am right about the currency turmoil coming, then you can buy some of the currencies and if you think that the rupee is the place to be, then you can buy some rupees.
Long-term inflation expectations in the US as reflected by the five-year forward breaking rates on treasury inflation protected securities. Those have hardened considerably since the beginning of the year. That's also your view, right? Too much money in the financial systems and monetary authorities the world over don't have a credible plan to withdraw liquidity?
I cannot conceive of lending money to the US government for 30 years in US dollars for 3, 4, 5 or 6% interest. It's just inconceivable to me that I would let them have my money for 30 years and they would pay me back someday in US dollars at such a low rate of interest. I expect problems in the bond market. I don't know when. I am not sure about the bond market. I was short in the bond market, but I got out. I expect to see serious problems in the bond market down the road.
In the near term, markets seem to be more concerned about growth than they are about inflation. The difference between the 10-year and the two-year bond yield in the US has narrowed some 40 basis points since early June. Unlike you Jim, people are actually going out and buying long maturity treasuries because they don't see growth, don't see inflation. So, what do say to these bond buyers? Good luck?
When you see anomalies like this in the market, you are supposed to take advantage . The spread is very low. So, why would anybody buy a 10-year when he can buy a two-year ? Not worth the extra risk to go out 10 years. I would urge people to keep their wits. Now, granted Mr Bernanke and the US are buying a lot of government paper and driving the price up. That's why I am not sure. He has got more buying power than I do, at least for the foreseeable future. So, you are seeing longer bonds going up. That gives you an opportunity to get out if you own them or think about selling them short if you don't own them and know how to sell short.
Interview with Jim Rogers from India Times
That's the way I know you know about commodities. You read The Economic Times and your ET TV. So, you know that the markets always have corrections whether they are going up or down. Nothing goes straight up or down forever. So, it's having a normal correction. In my view, the best place to be is in real assetscommodities, because if the world is going to recover, they (commodities) will recover first because of the shortages and if the world economy is not going to recover, they are still the best place to be, because governments around the world are printing huge amounts of money. So, if you got to own something, I don't much to own besides commodities.
In India, we are getting worried about the monsoon. We are looking out of our windows and not finding any clouds, and there is also talk about El Nino weather formation. Is this something you would advise investors to keep an eye on?
Of course, I would. The world's inventories of food are at the lowest they have been in decades. We haven't have had any serious weather problems around the world for several decades as a matter of fact. So, with fairly good weather, we have been having bad harvest or we have been consuming more than we have been producing. Can you imagine what's going to happen to the price of agriculture if we have bad weather around the world?
The last time we met here in Mumbai you had a sachet of sugar in your pocket and you pulled it out to underscore your point of impending shortage about agri commodities. You have been right about sugar as far as we can see from the price charts. What are you hiding today in your pockets? A silver coin, a hip flask full of crude oil, may be?
I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I don't know how you knew. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver. The dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the stocks rally in March. Commodities have risen 94% of the time that the dollar has fallen. A very strong correlation. Do we expect the dollar decline and the commodity run-up, therefore, to continue? It's not always a strong correlation. You are right; there has been (a correlation) in recent months, recent years even. But no, there are many times when the dollar and commodities go entirely separate ways. So, don't get it into your head, and I know many times that the press do have it in their head that commodities and dollars go opposite ways. I am not terribly bullish on the dollar in long term. US dollars are a terribly flawed currency and down the road I hope I don't own any US dollars. I still own some of them at the moment, but it's not getting better for the US. The dollar any way is getting worse. The fundamental for commodities continue to improve. The fundamentals for the US dollar do not continue to improve. They are deteriorating.
Are you still sticking to your prediction of a currency crisis sometime in a year or two?
Yes. The world is full of currency imbalances and economic trade imbalances would have to be resolved or corrected, one way or the other. Unfortunately, given the state of politicians and it's not just the current state of politicians, but politicians throughout history have usually got things wrong. So, we are going to have some problems in the currency market. I don't know when. May be not. I may be wrong. But having seen that sort of thing before in history somebody would have to pay the price whether it's the pound sterling or the US dollar or the rupee, I have no clue. No idea where it’s going to stop, but we are going to have problems in the currency markets.
What’s your view on global equities now? Do you think emerging markets’ premium over developed country markets has gone a way too high?
I don't pay any attention to things like emerging markets premium. You talk about it on TV, but every market is different. Why can't I just go out and buy emerging markets when it is likely to go broke. Every market is different, every country is different, every economy is different and every sector of the economies is different. Just because you are in an emerging country does not mean you are going to make money if you get the wrong sector. I have not bought any stocks anywhere in the world in the last couple of years except China. I did buy some Chinese shares back in October-November. I have not been buying anything other than that for some time. I have been worried about the world economy, about the world stock markets. If you got to be somewhere and if there is going to be a recovery, it will show up in commodities best of all, and if there is not going to be any recovery, commodities are still a better place to be.
So what are you buying nowadays?
If you want to put in your money somewhere, put it in commodities. That's the only thing I bought recently. I have bought some yen and swiss francs. If you know enough about currencies to figure out who is going to benefit, if I am right about the currency turmoil coming, then you can buy some of the currencies and if you think that the rupee is the place to be, then you can buy some rupees.
Long-term inflation expectations in the US as reflected by the five-year forward breaking rates on treasury inflation protected securities. Those have hardened considerably since the beginning of the year. That's also your view, right? Too much money in the financial systems and monetary authorities the world over don't have a credible plan to withdraw liquidity?
I cannot conceive of lending money to the US government for 30 years in US dollars for 3, 4, 5 or 6% interest. It's just inconceivable to me that I would let them have my money for 30 years and they would pay me back someday in US dollars at such a low rate of interest. I expect problems in the bond market. I don't know when. I am not sure about the bond market. I was short in the bond market, but I got out. I expect to see serious problems in the bond market down the road.
In the near term, markets seem to be more concerned about growth than they are about inflation. The difference between the 10-year and the two-year bond yield in the US has narrowed some 40 basis points since early June. Unlike you Jim, people are actually going out and buying long maturity treasuries because they don't see growth, don't see inflation. So, what do say to these bond buyers? Good luck?
When you see anomalies like this in the market, you are supposed to take advantage . The spread is very low. So, why would anybody buy a 10-year when he can buy a two-year ? Not worth the extra risk to go out 10 years. I would urge people to keep their wits. Now, granted Mr Bernanke and the US are buying a lot of government paper and driving the price up. That's why I am not sure. He has got more buying power than I do, at least for the foreseeable future. So, you are seeing longer bonds going up. That gives you an opportunity to get out if you own them or think about selling them short if you don't own them and know how to sell short.
Interview with Jim Rogers from India Times
Friday, December 19, 2008
Jim Rogers Giving Clinic on Identifying and Solving Economic Crisis Part 3 of 5
Points covered in video:
Where the opportunities are now
In forced liquidation period
Find things where fundamentals are unimpaired
What is unimpaired are raw materials, commodities
Supplies of everything will continue to decline
Categories like farming, mining and lumber will be significant going ahead
Farming has severe shortages now
Even though demand is going down, supply is going down faster
Historically commodities tend to come back first in tough times because of shortages of everything
Alternative energy a long way from being reality or affordable
Future of China and America over next 30 years
Part One Part Two Part Three Part Four Part Five
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Commodities: Jim Rogers Video Economic Issues
Jim Rogers video on commodities and other economic concerns.
Commodities: Jim Rogers - America is bankrupt
Commodities will increase in price as last bubble - US Treasury Bonds - bursts!
America is bankrupt, according to investment legend Jim Rogers. "The American government bonds are the world’s last bubble and the price of commodities has to increase."
Charismatic
The famous and charismatic investor, guru if you will, Jim Rogers, visited ABN Amro Netherlands last Friday. RTL Z was at ABN headquarters as well and recorded a number of statements, investment tips and opinions about the world economy.
Rogers
During the seventies Jim Rogers (66) managed a successful hedge fund with George Soros. After that, he traveled and went into commodities.
Last Friday Rogers went at it in front of a roomful of ABN private banking clients. We had an exclusive 15-minute interview with Rogers.
The most important points:
America is bankrupt. American government bonds are extremely overvalued. "The world’s last bubble." America is in debt for over 13.000 billion (13 trillion) dollar and adds a 1.000 billion dollar debt each year. According to Rogers this can not continue for long. Therefore, he went short in long-term US goverment bonds. “These bonds have peaked.” By the way: Rogers owns Dutch government bonds. “They are safe.”
"The fact that the dollar is gaining rapidly is only temporary", Rogers says. “All hedge funds were short on the dollar and because of the appreciation of the dollar there is a short squeeze for the dollar. Managers have to close thier positions and they have to buy dollars instead.” “This is temporary, within a year you have to get rid of the dollar. Fundamentally it is a drama.”
Commodities
Last year we spoke Rogers as well. At that time he advised us to invest blindly in commodities and agriculture. That was a bad advice, because Rogers’ commodities index (Rici) has fallen around 40 per cent last year, while ABN’s African Commodities Certificate dropped even from 11 euros to 5 euros during that time.
Oil
Rogers: "Whether oil costs 45 or 145 dollars, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that with oil, like with many other commodities, supply is decreasing while demand is increasing. In the long run this will result in a considerable increase in prices."
"The question is not if the price of a barrel of oil will increase again, but how expensive a barrel of oil will be eventually?"
"The oil supply will fall with 6 to 9 per cent each year, according to the IAE. The demand for oil will increase in China and developing countries. This has nothing to do with economy, the market is simple. It is simply the law of supply and demand."
High inflation
Rogers has been telling his commodity-story for a few years now. On Friday he sighed while saying: "People don’t understand that the commodity-market will be bullish, this will lead to high inflation."
Commodity prices will be a lot higher in the future than they are now.
"The world is going to change, there is no way around it. If you don’t understand that and you don’t adapt you will be suffering in five years. The Chinese see on TV how we live in the West. They want that too! That generates an enormous demand for products and materials."
"All countries in the world have been printing money, the United States in particular. That created a huge amount of money, resulting in the icing on the cake for commodity prices. But fundamentally you have to look at supply and demand."
The United States
Rogers has been negative about the United States for a long time. "You should be worried, America is out of control". The enemies of the United States are currently looking into how to profit from the weaknesses of the United States. When we asked him: Obama or McCain? he answered: "Neither of them. They are both turkeys, they take the wrong decicions."
Bernanke or Trichet?
Rogers is not a big fan of Bernanke, the president of the Federal Reserve. With a big smile Rogers tells us: "Bernanke will continue to print money until there are no trees left in America."
He is more positive about Trichet of the ECB. At least he knows what he is doing and what it’s all about.""
Banks
Rogers is fiercely against bailing out the banks. "That has never worked. Let them go bankrupt. Right now bad-managed banks are saved with money from good banks and from you and me. After that, the failing but nationalized banks are going to compete with the well-managed banks and they gain their market share. Ridiculous. The Bail-out plan is a disaster. In 1929 we had a recession but after the government interfered, it became a depression. You should not interfere."
Stocks
Rogers: "You can make good money with stock-picking, perhaps even more than with commodities, but only if you pick the right equity at the right moment. The stockmarket in the west is still too expensive. But the market is extremely volatile. In the five years to come you can earn money with trading ranges".
China and Russia
"Do know know what the problem is? When at work, the Chinese people ask when they can work and what they can do. We ask how day's off we have. That’s a big difference."
Rogers has bought Chinese equities in the last few weeks. "I don’t know if we have reached the bottom, but the market is low. I am a bad timer, by the way."
"My daughter is five years old and she speaks Mandarin fluently. After the dollar has collapsed as a world currency, there is only one currency that could take over that role: the renminbi. That could happen in 15 to 20 years. Other currencies cannot take over the role of the dollar, including the euro."
Russia
The former Soviet Union will be split up in even more smaller countries. And with that, there will be some wars."
"In Russia you are lucky if they kill you right away. You are unlucky if they first arrest you, then keep you in prisson for 15 years, torture you and kill you after that". He joked.
"What you see therby is that the Russians take their capital abroad, while the Chinese take it home."
City or countryside?
According to Rogers farmers have a bright future. "within a few years farmers will drive Maserati’s and all stockbrokers will be cabdrivers."
In Holland you could have a farm with a lot of land at the moment. “Agriculture has been out of vogue for 30 years, but now it will be hot because the demand for food will increase greatly."
“The stupidest thing you can do right now is to sell your farm and buy a house in the city instead. The housing market is in decline."
War
And finally: "If a war breaks out, it will begin in the Middle East. Amsterdam will be last. I would love to live here if the weather was any better... Amsterdam should have been 600 miles further to the south!"
The Treasury bond market continues to look like it's about to burst, and commodities will be the only place of safety left for investors.
America is bankrupt, according to investment legend Jim Rogers. "The American government bonds are the world’s last bubble and the price of commodities has to increase."
Charismatic
The famous and charismatic investor, guru if you will, Jim Rogers, visited ABN Amro Netherlands last Friday. RTL Z was at ABN headquarters as well and recorded a number of statements, investment tips and opinions about the world economy.
Rogers
During the seventies Jim Rogers (66) managed a successful hedge fund with George Soros. After that, he traveled and went into commodities.
Last Friday Rogers went at it in front of a roomful of ABN private banking clients. We had an exclusive 15-minute interview with Rogers.
The most important points:
America is bankrupt. American government bonds are extremely overvalued. "The world’s last bubble." America is in debt for over 13.000 billion (13 trillion) dollar and adds a 1.000 billion dollar debt each year. According to Rogers this can not continue for long. Therefore, he went short in long-term US goverment bonds. “These bonds have peaked.” By the way: Rogers owns Dutch government bonds. “They are safe.”
"The fact that the dollar is gaining rapidly is only temporary", Rogers says. “All hedge funds were short on the dollar and because of the appreciation of the dollar there is a short squeeze for the dollar. Managers have to close thier positions and they have to buy dollars instead.” “This is temporary, within a year you have to get rid of the dollar. Fundamentally it is a drama.”
Commodities
Last year we spoke Rogers as well. At that time he advised us to invest blindly in commodities and agriculture. That was a bad advice, because Rogers’ commodities index (Rici) has fallen around 40 per cent last year, while ABN’s African Commodities Certificate dropped even from 11 euros to 5 euros during that time.
Oil
Rogers: "Whether oil costs 45 or 145 dollars, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that with oil, like with many other commodities, supply is decreasing while demand is increasing. In the long run this will result in a considerable increase in prices."
"The question is not if the price of a barrel of oil will increase again, but how expensive a barrel of oil will be eventually?"
"The oil supply will fall with 6 to 9 per cent each year, according to the IAE. The demand for oil will increase in China and developing countries. This has nothing to do with economy, the market is simple. It is simply the law of supply and demand."
High inflation
Rogers has been telling his commodity-story for a few years now. On Friday he sighed while saying: "People don’t understand that the commodity-market will be bullish, this will lead to high inflation."
Commodity prices will be a lot higher in the future than they are now.
"The world is going to change, there is no way around it. If you don’t understand that and you don’t adapt you will be suffering in five years. The Chinese see on TV how we live in the West. They want that too! That generates an enormous demand for products and materials."
"All countries in the world have been printing money, the United States in particular. That created a huge amount of money, resulting in the icing on the cake for commodity prices. But fundamentally you have to look at supply and demand."
The United States
Rogers has been negative about the United States for a long time. "You should be worried, America is out of control". The enemies of the United States are currently looking into how to profit from the weaknesses of the United States. When we asked him: Obama or McCain? he answered: "Neither of them. They are both turkeys, they take the wrong decicions."
Bernanke or Trichet?
Rogers is not a big fan of Bernanke, the president of the Federal Reserve. With a big smile Rogers tells us: "Bernanke will continue to print money until there are no trees left in America."
He is more positive about Trichet of the ECB. At least he knows what he is doing and what it’s all about.""
Banks
Rogers is fiercely against bailing out the banks. "That has never worked. Let them go bankrupt. Right now bad-managed banks are saved with money from good banks and from you and me. After that, the failing but nationalized banks are going to compete with the well-managed banks and they gain their market share. Ridiculous. The Bail-out plan is a disaster. In 1929 we had a recession but after the government interfered, it became a depression. You should not interfere."
Stocks
Rogers: "You can make good money with stock-picking, perhaps even more than with commodities, but only if you pick the right equity at the right moment. The stockmarket in the west is still too expensive. But the market is extremely volatile. In the five years to come you can earn money with trading ranges".
China and Russia
"Do know know what the problem is? When at work, the Chinese people ask when they can work and what they can do. We ask how day's off we have. That’s a big difference."
Rogers has bought Chinese equities in the last few weeks. "I don’t know if we have reached the bottom, but the market is low. I am a bad timer, by the way."
"My daughter is five years old and she speaks Mandarin fluently. After the dollar has collapsed as a world currency, there is only one currency that could take over that role: the renminbi. That could happen in 15 to 20 years. Other currencies cannot take over the role of the dollar, including the euro."
Russia
The former Soviet Union will be split up in even more smaller countries. And with that, there will be some wars."
"In Russia you are lucky if they kill you right away. You are unlucky if they first arrest you, then keep you in prisson for 15 years, torture you and kill you after that". He joked.
"What you see therby is that the Russians take their capital abroad, while the Chinese take it home."
City or countryside?
According to Rogers farmers have a bright future. "within a few years farmers will drive Maserati’s and all stockbrokers will be cabdrivers."
In Holland you could have a farm with a lot of land at the moment. “Agriculture has been out of vogue for 30 years, but now it will be hot because the demand for food will increase greatly."
“The stupidest thing you can do right now is to sell your farm and buy a house in the city instead. The housing market is in decline."
War
And finally: "If a war breaks out, it will begin in the Middle East. Amsterdam will be last. I would love to live here if the weather was any better... Amsterdam should have been 600 miles further to the south!"
The Treasury bond market continues to look like it's about to burst, and commodities will be the only place of safety left for investors.
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