Wednesday, November 26, 2008
End The Fed - Houston Rally with Ron Paul Part One
Why the Federal Reserve needs to be abolished: Ron Paul
As the economy worsens and misguided government interference continues, it brings light to the reasons behind it, and it leads to the Federal Reserve, which Ron Paul calls to be abolished.
As the economy worsens and misguided government interference continues, it brings light to the reasons behind it, and it leads to the Federal Reserve, which Ron Paul calls to be abolished.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Is Coal Best Commodity to get into?
SEC filings for the third quarter of 2008 shows some major players have gobbled up large amount of shares in coal companies, as share prices have plummeted along with all commodities.
Two of the biggest companies invested in are Arch Coal (ACI) and Peabody (BTU). Others enjoying large infusions are Consol Energy (CNX) and CVRD, a Brazilian miner of iron ore, Teck and PT Bumi Resources from Indonesia.
Some of the investors involved with acquiring the shares are George Soros, Invesco and Citadel Investment Group.
As of November 21, Peabody traded at 3.7 times projected earnings for 2009 and Arch Coal traded at 2.5 times projected earnings.
Commodity companies will suffer in the short term but over the long haul will surge.
The reasoning behind the acquistions, besides the low valuations, is coal is less apt to be disrupted because of the built-in demand; and that demand is now growing.
Two of the biggest companies invested in are Arch Coal (ACI) and Peabody (BTU). Others enjoying large infusions are Consol Energy (CNX) and CVRD, a Brazilian miner of iron ore, Teck and PT Bumi Resources from Indonesia.
Some of the investors involved with acquiring the shares are George Soros, Invesco and Citadel Investment Group.
As of November 21, Peabody traded at 3.7 times projected earnings for 2009 and Arch Coal traded at 2.5 times projected earnings.
Commodity companies will suffer in the short term but over the long haul will surge.
The reasoning behind the acquistions, besides the low valuations, is coal is less apt to be disrupted because of the built-in demand; and that demand is now growing.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Commodities: Barack Obama Disaster for Economy
Why Barack Obama will be disaster for commodities and economy
At the World Money Show, Jim Rogers told those in attendance that if Barack Obama follows through with his two policies concerning the economy, it'll be a disaster.
The two misguided policies, according to Obama's rhetoric, are to tax capital when it is at its weakest, and secondly, he wants to protect American jobs.
According to Rogers, the only thing that will help America is if Obama is indeed just throwing around rhetoric. If he actually follows through with them, it'll make the American economy even more unhealthy.
Rogers is right when saying both of these ignorant steps are rewarding the incompetent at the expense of the competent. That's what happens when people vote in the most inexperienced candidate in history. Sarah Palin was far more experienced in running an economy than Obama is or will be.
As far as investments go, Rogers asserts the commodity decline is a temporary blip, and overall it'll extend the commodity bull market rather than end it.
Concerning the U.S. dollar, Rogers adds that the currency rally is a short-term phenomena, and U.S. debt and business failures ensure it will also end soon. Rogers says we should bet against the U.S. dollar, along with long-term U.S. bonds.
Commodities he's bullish on are sugar, cotton and gold. For oil he likes African stocks, primarily those in Angola.
At the World Money Show, Jim Rogers told those in attendance that if Barack Obama follows through with his two policies concerning the economy, it'll be a disaster.
The two misguided policies, according to Obama's rhetoric, are to tax capital when it is at its weakest, and secondly, he wants to protect American jobs.
According to Rogers, the only thing that will help America is if Obama is indeed just throwing around rhetoric. If he actually follows through with them, it'll make the American economy even more unhealthy.
Rogers is right when saying both of these ignorant steps are rewarding the incompetent at the expense of the competent. That's what happens when people vote in the most inexperienced candidate in history. Sarah Palin was far more experienced in running an economy than Obama is or will be.
As far as investments go, Rogers asserts the commodity decline is a temporary blip, and overall it'll extend the commodity bull market rather than end it.
Concerning the U.S. dollar, Rogers adds that the currency rally is a short-term phenomena, and U.S. debt and business failures ensure it will also end soon. Rogers says we should bet against the U.S. dollar, along with long-term U.S. bonds.
Commodities he's bullish on are sugar, cotton and gold. For oil he likes African stocks, primarily those in Angola.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Commodities: Jim Rogers TV - Why Regulation Fails
Jim Rogers: Why real assets like commodities are so important today
Some of the things covered by Rogers in this video:
Regulation and its failures
Will pass blame and take wrong steps
Need to let companies fail so system can be cleaned up
Takes assets away from competent and giving them to incompetent
Inflation on the horizon
Hold on to real assets
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
Commodites are going to be even more significant in the future as demand for natural resources will rebound with a vengeance!
Some of the things covered by Rogers in this video:
Regulation and its failures
Will pass blame and take wrong steps
Need to let companies fail so system can be cleaned up
Takes assets away from competent and giving them to incompetent
Inflation on the horizon
Hold on to real assets
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
Commodites are going to be even more significant in the future as demand for natural resources will rebound with a vengeance!
Commodities: Jim Rogers TV - Future and China
Talking on China: commodities, stocks, investment, stimulus - infrastructure key at this time
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
Even though growth in China has slowed from its recent heady days, demand for natural resources will continue to push commodity prices higher over the long term.
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
Even though growth in China has slowed from its recent heady days, demand for natural resources will continue to push commodity prices higher over the long term.
Commodites: Jim Rogers TV - Fundamentals Strong
Jim Rogers TV: Demand will drive prices of commodities up.
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
No matter what happens in the near term, commodities will continue on in a bull market, and the current economic crisis will only extend it, not end it!
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
No matter what happens in the near term, commodities will continue on in a bull market, and the current economic crisis will only extend it, not end it!
Commodities: Jim Rogers TV: - Talking U.S. Dollar
Jim Rogers talking on various aspects of the U.S. dollar and why it doesn't have a bright future as a global commodity
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
The U.S. dollar will no longer be the trusted commodity it has been in the past. Those days are over.
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four
The U.S. dollar will no longer be the trusted commodity it has been in the past. Those days are over.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Commodity: Current Economic System Unworkable
Commodities could be crushed under existing economic system
Ron Paul asking what are we going to do when we realize the current economic system in U.S. is unworkable.
Insights into Austrian economics.
For commodities to reach their full potential, we do need the present way the economy is attempted to be run to be abandoned.
Ron Paul asking what are we going to do when we realize the current economic system in U.S. is unworkable.
Insights into Austrian economics.
For commodities to reach their full potential, we do need the present way the economy is attempted to be run to be abandoned.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Commodities: Dollar Reserve Standard Broken
Ron Paul:Commodities Market needs to be left alone to clean itself out
Market needs to clean itself out, not the governments around the world interfering. They don't know how to do it, says Ron Paul.
Government interference in all markets, not just commodity markets, needs to be stopped.
Market needs to clean itself out, not the governments around the world interfering. They don't know how to do it, says Ron Paul.
Government interference in all markets, not just commodity markets, needs to be stopped.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Commodities: Global Economic Summit
Ron Paul on the Troubling Global Economic Summit
Talking about the upcoming Global Economic Summit which probably will do nothing but cause more problems in the global economy, Ron Paul reveals his concerns and the folly what will eventually emerge from the countries involved.
Rather than take the opportunity to lead and make a real change for the better by promoting balanced budgets, sound money and less spending, America will probably go along and encourage some type of version of an international central bank, which in Paul's words would be "a horror."
What that will result in is more regulation and controls. It will do nothing to fix the real problems, but perpetuate the old ones.
Here's the video:
The Global Economic Summit will do nothing to help commodities, in the end, as usual, it'll just prolong the temporary lull in commodities being moved forward by the market.
Talking about the upcoming Global Economic Summit which probably will do nothing but cause more problems in the global economy, Ron Paul reveals his concerns and the folly what will eventually emerge from the countries involved.
Rather than take the opportunity to lead and make a real change for the better by promoting balanced budgets, sound money and less spending, America will probably go along and encourage some type of version of an international central bank, which in Paul's words would be "a horror."
What that will result in is more regulation and controls. It will do nothing to fix the real problems, but perpetuate the old ones.
Here's the video:
The Global Economic Summit will do nothing to help commodities, in the end, as usual, it'll just prolong the temporary lull in commodities being moved forward by the market.
Commodity: China's Stimulus Plan and U.S. Dollar
What will be the effect of China stimulus plan on U.S. dollar as commodity?
A number of analysts have commented on the large number of factories that have closed in China, and think this will have such a negative impact on the country that it will lead to a depression there.
With that in mind, let's look at the recent announcement they're going to offer a stimulus package worth about $585 billion.
The reason the stimulus package of China is important to the U.S. dollar is money which would in the recent past been invested in the greenback through buying up U.S. treasuries, will now be put aside for Chinese domestic infrastructure projects.
China has been behind the available money for the U.S consumer to continue indulging in their reckless spending, that will start to change as China spreads its risk out more through now focusing on building up its domestic economy. The idea is to decouple from the export reliance it has had in order to put its people to work in factories and build up national wealth.
Now that it is accomplished, they will now change that overall strategy to focus within. They are also employing a similar strategy in Brazil, as they recently received permission for the Bank of China to have a direct presence in the country in order to offer financing for Chinese businesses who want to work of Brazilian infrastructure projects.
As this begins to play itself over the next two years (the Chinese stimulus time frame), it should put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Couple that with having to pay back the outrageous and ignorant stimulus package in the U.S., and we'll see heightened inflation and a weaker dollar going ahead.
Add all that to the current deleveraging of American funds at this time which has helped strengthen the U.S. dollar, and we could see a tremendous plunge in its value. It's a matter of when, not if.
A major question is whether the U.S. dollar will remain the denominated currency for commodities.
A number of analysts have commented on the large number of factories that have closed in China, and think this will have such a negative impact on the country that it will lead to a depression there.
With that in mind, let's look at the recent announcement they're going to offer a stimulus package worth about $585 billion.
The reason the stimulus package of China is important to the U.S. dollar is money which would in the recent past been invested in the greenback through buying up U.S. treasuries, will now be put aside for Chinese domestic infrastructure projects.
China has been behind the available money for the U.S consumer to continue indulging in their reckless spending, that will start to change as China spreads its risk out more through now focusing on building up its domestic economy. The idea is to decouple from the export reliance it has had in order to put its people to work in factories and build up national wealth.
Now that it is accomplished, they will now change that overall strategy to focus within. They are also employing a similar strategy in Brazil, as they recently received permission for the Bank of China to have a direct presence in the country in order to offer financing for Chinese businesses who want to work of Brazilian infrastructure projects.
As this begins to play itself over the next two years (the Chinese stimulus time frame), it should put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Couple that with having to pay back the outrageous and ignorant stimulus package in the U.S., and we'll see heightened inflation and a weaker dollar going ahead.
Add all that to the current deleveraging of American funds at this time which has helped strengthen the U.S. dollar, and we could see a tremendous plunge in its value. It's a matter of when, not if.
A major question is whether the U.S. dollar will remain the denominated currency for commodities.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Henry Paulson Announcement Sends Investors Fleeing to Safety
With traders and investors in a risk-adverse mode, anything they're unsure of sends running for safety and cover, and it was no different today.
When U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) would now be adding those in the nonbanking sector to their focus, investors fleed to the U.S. dollar and yen for protection.
The underlying assumption being made was things may not be as fixable through TARP than they orginally thought, and unexpected problems may be hindering the effort.
Right after Paulson's remarks went across the news wires, the stampede to the yen and U.S. dollar began.
The dollar and yen remain the investment of choice for those seeking safety, although the yen is getting more activity and holding strong, as the dollar fell Wednesday to 94.61 yen from 97.60.
When U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) would now be adding those in the nonbanking sector to their focus, investors fleed to the U.S. dollar and yen for protection.
The underlying assumption being made was things may not be as fixable through TARP than they orginally thought, and unexpected problems may be hindering the effort.
Right after Paulson's remarks went across the news wires, the stampede to the yen and U.S. dollar began.
The dollar and yen remain the investment of choice for those seeking safety, although the yen is getting more activity and holding strong, as the dollar fell Wednesday to 94.61 yen from 97.60.
Commodties: Recessions are Healthy
Recession wouldn't hurt commodities that much if governments didn't interfere in free market
Most Americans and people around the world need to get a better grasp of basic economics, as the ongoing boom/bust cycle which has lasted for decades is in motion again.
Much of this is happen because of the government attempting to "save" people from the pain of these times of adjustments and make it worse by their interference. This same old story is happening again in this period of time, and it always prolongs the pain and suffering, rather than help it.
Recessions can be likened to a human body that doesn't receive much nutritional input at all, and the body reacts by failing in some way that is painful. The body is speaking to us that there is excess somewhere, and we're doing something wrong.
To pour on more excess in order to temporarily take away the pain only prolongs the suffering. Yet that's what the government does when politicians try to buy votes by continually throwing money at problems.
Recessions are an event which tells the economy there are excesses going on, and that we need to change what we're feeding it if we want to retain a healthy economy.
In other words, a lot of people, businesses and banks have made mistakes when things were going good, and as a result a recession has occurred. Now that it's a reality, consumers and businesspeople need to make the types of adjustments that will make the economic body healthy again.
Things like building up their savings while cutting back on spending. Businesses will respond by cutting prices in order to spur spending; that makes things affordable for people buying not using debt (credit cards or home refinancing).
When things are forced to be liquidated, money is set free from poor investment decisions and put to work in more productive activities. Work production increases because people are concerned about losing their jobs. Businesses streamline operations and costs, and work hard to retain and grow their customer base by improving their products and services. If they don't, the company would go out of business, along with their jobs.
Government interference is an attempt to create an artificial economic surge, which ends up causing more damage than good, as the problems which caused the recession in the first place aren't dealt with and will extend the recession. This is what happened in the Great Depression in the U.S., which would have lasted only a couple years if the economy hadn't been tampered with.
In our current economic crisis, we are experiencing an unprecedented interference by governments around the world, and it looks like many more are ready to join the bandwagon. It's bizarre in that bad debt has been the main cause of the problem, and now more bad debt is being thrown at it.
What inevitably will happen is more money will be printed to pay off that debt, and inflation will spiral out of control. How long will it take to pay off the trillions being printed out of thin air? Nobody knows. The amount being put into the global marketplace is unprecedented.
That and the illusion things are getting better by businesses and consumers causes the same underlying problems to go on uncorrected.
So things will continue to go on in this cycle history repeats itself over and over again because the problems which caused the economic disease in the first place are doomed to happen again and again.
All of this happens because the government is attempting to keep people from experiencing pain. But like doctors will tell you: pain is necessary. If we don't have pain, we wouldn't know something was wrong with a particular part of our body.
Think of individuals who have bodies that don't feel pain, and when they're children they break their bones and injure themselves in extremely unhealthy ways because the body doens't send a signal of pain to communicate something excessive is going on.
That's what happens every time the government interferes and gives the economy the pain-free drug of more money. It keeps the pain from being felt or lessoned so people and businesses can keep on going without having to adjust their behavior.
We're doomed to see this type of economic response happen again and again until we learn and decide not to allow this to happen.
As for commodities, they'll participate in the decline in response to the misguided efforts of government interference.
Most Americans and people around the world need to get a better grasp of basic economics, as the ongoing boom/bust cycle which has lasted for decades is in motion again.
Much of this is happen because of the government attempting to "save" people from the pain of these times of adjustments and make it worse by their interference. This same old story is happening again in this period of time, and it always prolongs the pain and suffering, rather than help it.
Recessions can be likened to a human body that doesn't receive much nutritional input at all, and the body reacts by failing in some way that is painful. The body is speaking to us that there is excess somewhere, and we're doing something wrong.
To pour on more excess in order to temporarily take away the pain only prolongs the suffering. Yet that's what the government does when politicians try to buy votes by continually throwing money at problems.
Recessions are an event which tells the economy there are excesses going on, and that we need to change what we're feeding it if we want to retain a healthy economy.
In other words, a lot of people, businesses and banks have made mistakes when things were going good, and as a result a recession has occurred. Now that it's a reality, consumers and businesspeople need to make the types of adjustments that will make the economic body healthy again.
Things like building up their savings while cutting back on spending. Businesses will respond by cutting prices in order to spur spending; that makes things affordable for people buying not using debt (credit cards or home refinancing).
When things are forced to be liquidated, money is set free from poor investment decisions and put to work in more productive activities. Work production increases because people are concerned about losing their jobs. Businesses streamline operations and costs, and work hard to retain and grow their customer base by improving their products and services. If they don't, the company would go out of business, along with their jobs.
Government interference is an attempt to create an artificial economic surge, which ends up causing more damage than good, as the problems which caused the recession in the first place aren't dealt with and will extend the recession. This is what happened in the Great Depression in the U.S., which would have lasted only a couple years if the economy hadn't been tampered with.
In our current economic crisis, we are experiencing an unprecedented interference by governments around the world, and it looks like many more are ready to join the bandwagon. It's bizarre in that bad debt has been the main cause of the problem, and now more bad debt is being thrown at it.
What inevitably will happen is more money will be printed to pay off that debt, and inflation will spiral out of control. How long will it take to pay off the trillions being printed out of thin air? Nobody knows. The amount being put into the global marketplace is unprecedented.
That and the illusion things are getting better by businesses and consumers causes the same underlying problems to go on uncorrected.
So things will continue to go on in this cycle history repeats itself over and over again because the problems which caused the economic disease in the first place are doomed to happen again and again.
All of this happens because the government is attempting to keep people from experiencing pain. But like doctors will tell you: pain is necessary. If we don't have pain, we wouldn't know something was wrong with a particular part of our body.
Think of individuals who have bodies that don't feel pain, and when they're children they break their bones and injure themselves in extremely unhealthy ways because the body doens't send a signal of pain to communicate something excessive is going on.
That's what happens every time the government interferes and gives the economy the pain-free drug of more money. It keeps the pain from being felt or lessoned so people and businesses can keep on going without having to adjust their behavior.
We're doomed to see this type of economic response happen again and again until we learn and decide not to allow this to happen.
As for commodities, they'll participate in the decline in response to the misguided efforts of government interference.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Commodities: Mirror Equities Drop
Commodities mirror drop of equities
Almost everything in the current market are acting like they're in a conspiracy against commodities, as they go against their usual behavior and drop along with stocks. Investors usually use them as a hedge when the equities market falls, but this time around there's no safety there.
Once the period of deleveraging dissipates we'll get a better picture on whether that's the major downward pressure on raw materials. It's definitely one of the key reasons commodities are underperforming, as funds are forced to sell in order to access capital.
Of course this also increases the strength of the U.S. dollar, which in turn puts more downward pressure on commodities, as when funds move out of their positions in commodities, it brings them back to the U.S. dollar which most are denominated in.
The other obvious reason for the ongoing plunge in commodity prices is the economic conditions themselves, where demand for raw materials has declined significantly. This is one of the major reasons China is putting their own stimulous package into play, to spur domestic growth by providing capital for infrastructure projects.
When forced liquidation (deleveraging) begins to slow down, that'll probably be the first step toward shoring up the raw materials market again.
All of these factors will continue to drive the prices of commodities across the board.
Almost everything in the current market are acting like they're in a conspiracy against commodities, as they go against their usual behavior and drop along with stocks. Investors usually use them as a hedge when the equities market falls, but this time around there's no safety there.
Once the period of deleveraging dissipates we'll get a better picture on whether that's the major downward pressure on raw materials. It's definitely one of the key reasons commodities are underperforming, as funds are forced to sell in order to access capital.
Of course this also increases the strength of the U.S. dollar, which in turn puts more downward pressure on commodities, as when funds move out of their positions in commodities, it brings them back to the U.S. dollar which most are denominated in.
The other obvious reason for the ongoing plunge in commodity prices is the economic conditions themselves, where demand for raw materials has declined significantly. This is one of the major reasons China is putting their own stimulous package into play, to spur domestic growth by providing capital for infrastructure projects.
When forced liquidation (deleveraging) begins to slow down, that'll probably be the first step toward shoring up the raw materials market again.
All of these factors will continue to drive the prices of commodities across the board.
Monday, November 10, 2008
DJ USDA Report: Corn To Find Competition From Wheat Feeding
CHICAGO, Nov 10, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- U.S. corn exports will face tough competition from ample world wheat supplies, but demand for U.S. soybeans should stave off any price slumps in that market, analysts said following new government crop data released Monday.
Issued less than a week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its October crop production report, the November report offered "very little new information," said Gavin Maguire, an EHedger analyst in a post-report conference call sponsored by the CME Group.
The USDA slightly cut corn and soybean production estimates.
Corn export forecasts were "less-than-desired and there is world wheat feed competition; there's plenty of wheat around in world," said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group. "Wheat prices will struggle to do much very interesting."
The USDA expects farmers to harvest 12.020 billion bushels of corn on a yield of 153.8 bushels per acre. This undercuts the October USDA estimate of 12.033 billion on a 153.9 bushel-per-acre yield. Monday's data also fell below the average trade estimate of 12.066 billion bushels on a 154.3-bushel-per-acre yield.
Output for 2007 was 13.074 billion.
U.S. export estimates were cut 50 million bushels to 1.900 billion from the October report.
The USDA estimated the U.S. soybean crop at 2.921 billion bushels on a 39.3 bushel/acre yield. This is greater than the average trade estimate of 2.916 billion bushels on a 39.2 bushel/acre yield. But the USDA estimates was down from the October forecast of 2.938 billion bushels and yield of 39.5 bushels/acre. Output for 2007 was 2.676 billion and the average yield was 41.7.
"Production is slightly friendly; ending stocks are not," Scoville said.
Ending stocks for the 2008-09corn marketing year were pegged at 1.124 billion bushels, below the 1.160-billion-bushel trade estimate and above than 1.088 billion October estimate.
The ending stocks forecast for the 2008-09 soybean marketing year was 205 million bushels, above the 189 million-bushel-average trade estimate and equal to the October figure.
The ending stocks forecast for the 2008-09 wheat marketing year was 603 million bushels, above the 594 million-bushel-average trade estimate and the USDA's 601-million-bushel October figure.
"I feel that strength will be sold into," Maguire said, for corn and soybeans. "We're in a range where we'll test upper limits near recent highs and encounter pretty decent selling pressure."
If any market will press higher into the new year, it will be soybeans, he said, noting U.S. farmers will be closely watching Brazil's weather to watch for problems that could signal the need for greater plantings.
Maguire also said he thought the economics of winter wheat-soybean planting was more attractive than corn.
"I think we're trying to put a seasonal bottom in now for corn," Scoville said, marking his bearish range low around $3.75 or $3.50, even though he'd heard lower.
When planting season rolls around Scoville said he thinks corn could head to $5.
"Beans are probably the leader to the upside," he said, saying he could see them "with good luck" rising back to $11.50-11.75 areas. "I think we're at lower end of bean trading range for now. Wheat, once again we're at the lower end of the trading range."
Maguire added that soft red winter wheat has "the most downside room; some of better classes can hold in a bit more strongly."
While Argentina's projected wheat output was cut in Monday's report by 1 million metric tons to 11 million, the world's overall production rose.
Regarding soybean yield estimates, Scoville said the USDA should "have a pretty good handle, but yields have been pretty uneven, at least to reports I've been hearing, and uneven reports leads to uneven data calculations."
-By Rebecca Townsend, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4118; rebecca.townsend@dowjones.com
Issued less than a week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its October crop production report, the November report offered "very little new information," said Gavin Maguire, an EHedger analyst in a post-report conference call sponsored by the CME Group.
The USDA slightly cut corn and soybean production estimates.
Corn export forecasts were "less-than-desired and there is world wheat feed competition; there's plenty of wheat around in world," said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group. "Wheat prices will struggle to do much very interesting."
The USDA expects farmers to harvest 12.020 billion bushels of corn on a yield of 153.8 bushels per acre. This undercuts the October USDA estimate of 12.033 billion on a 153.9 bushel-per-acre yield. Monday's data also fell below the average trade estimate of 12.066 billion bushels on a 154.3-bushel-per-acre yield.
Output for 2007 was 13.074 billion.
U.S. export estimates were cut 50 million bushels to 1.900 billion from the October report.
The USDA estimated the U.S. soybean crop at 2.921 billion bushels on a 39.3 bushel/acre yield. This is greater than the average trade estimate of 2.916 billion bushels on a 39.2 bushel/acre yield. But the USDA estimates was down from the October forecast of 2.938 billion bushels and yield of 39.5 bushels/acre. Output for 2007 was 2.676 billion and the average yield was 41.7.
"Production is slightly friendly; ending stocks are not," Scoville said.
Ending stocks for the 2008-09corn marketing year were pegged at 1.124 billion bushels, below the 1.160-billion-bushel trade estimate and above than 1.088 billion October estimate.
The ending stocks forecast for the 2008-09 soybean marketing year was 205 million bushels, above the 189 million-bushel-average trade estimate and equal to the October figure.
The ending stocks forecast for the 2008-09 wheat marketing year was 603 million bushels, above the 594 million-bushel-average trade estimate and the USDA's 601-million-bushel October figure.
"I feel that strength will be sold into," Maguire said, for corn and soybeans. "We're in a range where we'll test upper limits near recent highs and encounter pretty decent selling pressure."
If any market will press higher into the new year, it will be soybeans, he said, noting U.S. farmers will be closely watching Brazil's weather to watch for problems that could signal the need for greater plantings.
Maguire also said he thought the economics of winter wheat-soybean planting was more attractive than corn.
"I think we're trying to put a seasonal bottom in now for corn," Scoville said, marking his bearish range low around $3.75 or $3.50, even though he'd heard lower.
When planting season rolls around Scoville said he thinks corn could head to $5.
"Beans are probably the leader to the upside," he said, saying he could see them "with good luck" rising back to $11.50-11.75 areas. "I think we're at lower end of bean trading range for now. Wheat, once again we're at the lower end of the trading range."
Maguire added that soft red winter wheat has "the most downside room; some of better classes can hold in a bit more strongly."
While Argentina's projected wheat output was cut in Monday's report by 1 million metric tons to 11 million, the world's overall production rose.
Regarding soybean yield estimates, Scoville said the USDA should "have a pretty good handle, but yields have been pretty uneven, at least to reports I've been hearing, and uneven reports leads to uneven data calculations."
-By Rebecca Townsend, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4118; rebecca.townsend@dowjones.com
Commodities: Pacific Ethanol Huge Losses
The ethanol debacle continues, as the latest disaster for the artifical commodity is Pacific Ethanol (nasdaq:PEIX) had an even worse quarter than expected, as losses surged to $54.9 million in the third quarter, up significantly from the $4.8 million in the same quarter last year.
As with other ethanol companies, blame has been placed on the increased price of corn, and in Pacific's case, an impairment charge of $26.6 million for quitting construction on a plant in California.
This is in spite of revenue growing 56 percent to $184 million, a solid increase from $118.1 million a year ago.
Losses equaled 98 cents a share, a much larger number than the 16 cents a share analysts were looking for. Revenue was also far below the $218.6 million projected by analysts.
It's amazing to see this endless black hole continue to be fed by federal subsidies, when it ethanol as an alternative fuel simply needs to be laid aside. It isn't working and it won't work in the future.
We need to get out of denial and admit ethanol as a commodity and alternative fuel is a losing proposition.
As with other ethanol companies, blame has been placed on the increased price of corn, and in Pacific's case, an impairment charge of $26.6 million for quitting construction on a plant in California.
This is in spite of revenue growing 56 percent to $184 million, a solid increase from $118.1 million a year ago.
Losses equaled 98 cents a share, a much larger number than the 16 cents a share analysts were looking for. Revenue was also far below the $218.6 million projected by analysts.
It's amazing to see this endless black hole continue to be fed by federal subsidies, when it ethanol as an alternative fuel simply needs to be laid aside. It isn't working and it won't work in the future.
We need to get out of denial and admit ethanol as a commodity and alternative fuel is a losing proposition.
Commodities: Bunge Ltd Drops Bid
Bunge Ltd drops bid for commodity company Corn Products International
Just a few days after the board of Corn Products International (CPO) withdrew its support to be acquired by Bunge Ltd. (BG), the board of Bunge decided to end their pursuit of the deal.
With the shares of both companies dropping significantly, especially Bunge's, the deal no longer was as attractive as when the offer was originally made.
Per the agreement, Corn Products will now have to pay $10 million to Bunge because of the failure of the deal to go forward.
Corn Products was desirable to Bunge because they were looking to become a key player in finished corn products. Bunge is primarily a food processor.
In the case of this deal, the weak credit market didn't play any part, as it was based totally on using stock. It was the precipitous drop of Bunge's stock which caused Corn Products board members to withdraw support.
Bunge Chairman and CEO Alberto Weisser said the deal no longer made sense to Bunge and its shareholders without the support of the Corn Products board, and while the commodity price couldn't support the deal.
Just a few days after the board of Corn Products International (CPO) withdrew its support to be acquired by Bunge Ltd. (BG), the board of Bunge decided to end their pursuit of the deal.
With the shares of both companies dropping significantly, especially Bunge's, the deal no longer was as attractive as when the offer was originally made.
Per the agreement, Corn Products will now have to pay $10 million to Bunge because of the failure of the deal to go forward.
Corn Products was desirable to Bunge because they were looking to become a key player in finished corn products. Bunge is primarily a food processor.
In the case of this deal, the weak credit market didn't play any part, as it was based totally on using stock. It was the precipitous drop of Bunge's stock which caused Corn Products board members to withdraw support.
Bunge Chairman and CEO Alberto Weisser said the deal no longer made sense to Bunge and its shareholders without the support of the Corn Products board, and while the commodity price couldn't support the deal.
China to Offer Stimulus Package of $585 Billion over Next Two Years
While China will continue to grow at a rate enviable by most other nations, it has decided to offer their own version of a stimulus package in their own country worth over $585 billion.
China's growth is estimated to be at about 8.5 percent next year, down by 3 percent from last year.
Most of the package will target ten key areas in the country, and will focus on "transportation, rural infrastructure, low-income housing, electricity and water. Some of the funds will also be used to build up areas ravaged from natural disasters, particularly the May earthquake in the Sichuan province."
This is being done in an effort to strengthen the domestic market, as the country has primarily relied on exports for the majority of their past growth. That is what is slowing down, so they're going to prop things up until exports start to perform strongly again, which could take a couple years.
In an effort to generate more liquidity in the markets, China is also removing commercial bank ceilings in order to loosen up credit for rurul areas, technological innovation, small business and industrial mergers and acquisitions.
Another area they're targeting is their value-added tax, which will dramatically cut back on business costs to the tune of about $17.5 billion.
China's growth is estimated to be at about 8.5 percent next year, down by 3 percent from last year.
Most of the package will target ten key areas in the country, and will focus on "transportation, rural infrastructure, low-income housing, electricity and water. Some of the funds will also be used to build up areas ravaged from natural disasters, particularly the May earthquake in the Sichuan province."
This is being done in an effort to strengthen the domestic market, as the country has primarily relied on exports for the majority of their past growth. That is what is slowing down, so they're going to prop things up until exports start to perform strongly again, which could take a couple years.
In an effort to generate more liquidity in the markets, China is also removing commercial bank ceilings in order to loosen up credit for rurul areas, technological innovation, small business and industrial mergers and acquisitions.
Another area they're targeting is their value-added tax, which will dramatically cut back on business costs to the tune of about $17.5 billion.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Nordic American Tanker Enjoys Solid Third Quarter
Nordic American Tanker (nyse:NAT) enjoyed a solid third quarter, surpassing analysts' estimates for earnings by 2 cents a share.
Earnings for the quarter surged to $42.7 million, or $1.24 a share, in sharp contrast to the $1.2 million loss, or 4 cents a share suffered in the third quarter of 2007. Analysts were looking for $1.22 a share for earnings.
Considering the company took a 10 cents-a-share charge on income lost from drydockings, it was a good quarter. The company said out of the 50 days ships were out of service, 33 of them were planned. Until 2010 there are no more scheduled drydockings.
Much of the success for the third quarter was because the average vessel received a day rate average of $68,362 a vessel, much better than the expected average of $64,000 a vessel. The company added that what is called the Suezmax spot market is still going strong in the fourth quarter as well.
Suezmax tankers refers to the largest ships that are able to travel through the Suez Canal. Rates for the fourth quarter are over $55,000 on average, and trading at $65,000 a day. This is far above the $40,000 some analysts are looking for for the fourth quarter.
At this time expectations are day rates for 2009 will be around $37,000 for Suezmaxes, which would end up paying out $3.50 a share for the year. That would be a significant decline from the $4.89 paid out this year. It remains to be seen if the $37,000 is a realistic figure, as the market has resisted downward moves so far.
Nordic announced it would pay out $1.61 a share in dividends on Friday, far above the $1.50 some were looking for.
Top executives told investors that they are in a solid position as a company, even in the current economic crisis, and are in good shape going ahead. They reminded shareholders that they have no debt, finances are in good shape, and they have a $500million revolving credit line in place through September 2013.
Some of that credit line is being used to finance two new vessels to be put into service in the early part of 2010. There is also $31 million in cash available as of the end of the third quarter.
The top variable to consider going ahead is the exposure Nordic has in the spot market, with only one of their twelve tankers on a long-term fixed rate charter. The other eleven are working in the spot market. As mentioned earlier, the spot market looks to be weaker in 2009 than in 2008, yet it was supposed to be weaker in the third and fourth quarter, and yet has remained much stronger than expected.
While the current economic conditions should eventually slow things down for Nordic, you've got to feel pretty good about their prospects and how the leadership in the company has been managing the risk.
Earnings for the quarter surged to $42.7 million, or $1.24 a share, in sharp contrast to the $1.2 million loss, or 4 cents a share suffered in the third quarter of 2007. Analysts were looking for $1.22 a share for earnings.
Considering the company took a 10 cents-a-share charge on income lost from drydockings, it was a good quarter. The company said out of the 50 days ships were out of service, 33 of them were planned. Until 2010 there are no more scheduled drydockings.
Much of the success for the third quarter was because the average vessel received a day rate average of $68,362 a vessel, much better than the expected average of $64,000 a vessel. The company added that what is called the Suezmax spot market is still going strong in the fourth quarter as well.
Suezmax tankers refers to the largest ships that are able to travel through the Suez Canal. Rates for the fourth quarter are over $55,000 on average, and trading at $65,000 a day. This is far above the $40,000 some analysts are looking for for the fourth quarter.
At this time expectations are day rates for 2009 will be around $37,000 for Suezmaxes, which would end up paying out $3.50 a share for the year. That would be a significant decline from the $4.89 paid out this year. It remains to be seen if the $37,000 is a realistic figure, as the market has resisted downward moves so far.
Nordic announced it would pay out $1.61 a share in dividends on Friday, far above the $1.50 some were looking for.
Top executives told investors that they are in a solid position as a company, even in the current economic crisis, and are in good shape going ahead. They reminded shareholders that they have no debt, finances are in good shape, and they have a $500million revolving credit line in place through September 2013.
Some of that credit line is being used to finance two new vessels to be put into service in the early part of 2010. There is also $31 million in cash available as of the end of the third quarter.
The top variable to consider going ahead is the exposure Nordic has in the spot market, with only one of their twelve tankers on a long-term fixed rate charter. The other eleven are working in the spot market. As mentioned earlier, the spot market looks to be weaker in 2009 than in 2008, yet it was supposed to be weaker in the third and fourth quarter, and yet has remained much stronger than expected.
While the current economic conditions should eventually slow things down for Nordic, you've got to feel pretty good about their prospects and how the leadership in the company has been managing the risk.
Chairman of the Indian "Forwards Markets Commission" Says Commodity Trading Suspension Should End
According to Chairman of the Forwards Markets Commission (FMC) in India, B.C. Khatua, he expects the current suspension of trading of commodity futures on potatoes, rubber, chana and soyoil to end on November 30.
“We will be making a submission of our analysis on the suspension to the government in the coming weeks. Our preliminary study indicates that easing inflation especially in food commodities makes the situation favourable to restart futures in these commodities,” said Khatua.
The reason behind the suspension was the misguided idea that futures markets were being manipulated by traders, even though there isn't a shred of evidence it's true.
If India wants to emerge as a predictable, reliable commodities market, they can't suspend trading on existing commodities just because the price of food increases.
In a number of cases traders have been fined because of gains they made in their trading on Indian commodity exchanges.
“We will be making a submission of our analysis on the suspension to the government in the coming weeks. Our preliminary study indicates that easing inflation especially in food commodities makes the situation favourable to restart futures in these commodities,” said Khatua.
The reason behind the suspension was the misguided idea that futures markets were being manipulated by traders, even though there isn't a shred of evidence it's true.
If India wants to emerge as a predictable, reliable commodities market, they can't suspend trading on existing commodities just because the price of food increases.
In a number of cases traders have been fined because of gains they made in their trading on Indian commodity exchanges.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Commodities: Drilling Oil off Norway's Coastline
Oil fields off of Norway's coastline look good to oil companies searching for new opportunities with the commodity.
Even though oil prices have fallen recently, the higher prices have renewed interest for oil companies in drilling off the Norwegian coastline.
In the latest round of bidding, a record 46 countries participated in the licensing round. That's twice the number of the last round in 2005, when only 19 companies took part in the process.
Norway's oil production in the North Sea fields has been gradually declining since 2000, and now stands at 2.2 million barrels a day in contrast to the over 3 million barrels a day they retrieved 8 years ago.
The new blocks are located north of the current production area.
Announcements on who won the bids will come early or mid-2009, as the commodity continues to attract attention in spite of plunges in the black liguid.
Even though oil prices have fallen recently, the higher prices have renewed interest for oil companies in drilling off the Norwegian coastline.
In the latest round of bidding, a record 46 countries participated in the licensing round. That's twice the number of the last round in 2005, when only 19 companies took part in the process.
Norway's oil production in the North Sea fields has been gradually declining since 2000, and now stands at 2.2 million barrels a day in contrast to the over 3 million barrels a day they retrieved 8 years ago.
The new blocks are located north of the current production area.
Announcements on who won the bids will come early or mid-2009, as the commodity continues to attract attention in spite of plunges in the black liguid.
Commodities: Agriculture Futures Mixed
On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) results were mixed for grain commodities, as Wheat for December delivery lost 1.5 cents to $5.21 a bushel; December oats lost 3.5 cents to $2.345 a bushel; December corn fell 2.5 cents to $3.755 a bushel; and November soybeans rose 12.25 cents to $9.1175 a bushel.
Results for beef futures were also mixed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with October live cattle lost 0.5 cent to 92.8 cents a pound; October feeder cattle rose 0.08 cent to 98.95 cents a pound; October lean hogs advanced 0.58 cent to 55.4 cents a pound; and February pork bellies gained 2.3 cents to 86.1 cents a pound.
Even with all the downward pressures, grain commodities should perform well over the long term, as investors start to buy natural resources again, as demand inevitably increases.
Results for beef futures were also mixed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with October live cattle lost 0.5 cent to 92.8 cents a pound; October feeder cattle rose 0.08 cent to 98.95 cents a pound; October lean hogs advanced 0.58 cent to 55.4 cents a pound; and February pork bellies gained 2.3 cents to 86.1 cents a pound.
Even with all the downward pressures, grain commodities should perform well over the long term, as investors start to buy natural resources again, as demand inevitably increases.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Sentry Select Rogers International Commodity Index Principal-Protected Notes Announce Anniversary Pa
Sentry Select Capital Corp. ("Sentry Select") is pleased to announce the anniversary payment for Sentry Select Rogers International Commodity Index Principal-Protected Notes, Series 1 (the "Notes"). The payment of $3.09 per Note will be made on November 7, 2008 to investors of record on October 31, 2008. The amount represents a yield of 3.09% based on the issue price of $100.00 per note on October 28, 2005.
The Notes
Sentry Select Rogers International Commodity Index Principal-Protected Notes, Series 1 are deposit notes, issued by National Bank of Canada. The performance of the Notes is linked to the appreciation of (i) a portfolio of commodities managed by Diapason Commodities Management SA with the objective to replicate the performance of the Rogers International Commodity IndexTM (RICI) and (ii) certain fixed-income and/or money-market instruments (the "Benchmark Portfolio").
Annual income
On each anniversary date of the issuance of the Notes, subject to certain conditions, investors may be entitled to receive an amount per Note equal to (i) the sum of, for each day of that year, the Canadian overnight financing rate of the Bank of Canada, less 0.50%, divided by 365, multiplied by a specified amount of cash or cash equivalent instruments held in the Benchmark Portfolio for that day, (ii) divided by the number of Notes outstanding. If the value of the Benchmark Portfolio becomes equal to or less than a specified level, no amount will be paid to the investors on any anniversary date of the Notes.
Sentry Select Capital Corp.
Sentry Select Capital Corp. is a Canadian wealth management company that manages approximately $5.5 billion in gross assets as of September 30, 2008. The company offers a diverse range of investment products including closed-end trusts, mutual funds, hedge funds, principal-protected notes and flow-through limited partnerships, covering a variety of domestic and global mandates.
The Notes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by James Beeland Rogers, Jim Rogers or Beeland Interests Inc. (collectively "Beeland") or Diapason Commodities Management SA ("Diapason"). Beeland and Diapason make no representation or warranty, express or implied, to investors in the Notes or any potential investor, governmental authority, or any member of the public, regarding the advisability of investing in securities or commodities generally, or in the Notes or futures particularly. "Jim Rogers", "Rogers International Commodity Index", "RICI" are trademarks and service marks owned by Beeland.
Diapason Commodities Management SA is a limited partnership and commodity operator whose main mandate is to promote and distribute products designed around the Rogers International Commodity IndexTM. Diapason is owned by its management, who are experienced professionals in the fields of asset management, commodity markets, futures and options trading and it is managing in excess of 1.1 billion Euros in assets.
"Jim Rogers", "James Beeland Rogers", "Rogers", "Rogers International Commodity Index", and "RICI" are trademarks and service marks of Beeland Interests, Inc., which is owned and controlled by James Beeland Rogers, Jr., and are used subject to license. The name and likeness of Jim Rogers/James Beeland Rogers are trademarks and service marks of James Beeland Rogers, Jr.
"Sentry Select Rogers International Commodity Index Principal-Protected Notes are not and will not be offered or sold in the United States to or for the account of U.S. Persons as defined by U.S. securities laws. Each purchaser of the Notes will be asked to certify that such purchaser is not a U.S. Person, is not receiving the Notes in the United States, and is not acquiring the Notes for the benefit of a U.S. Person."
Certain statements included in this news release constitute forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those identified by the expressions "expect", "intend", "will" and similar expressions to the extent they relate to Sentry Select Capital Corp. ("Sentry Select"). The forward-looking statements are not historical facts but reflect Sentry Select's current expectations regarding future results or events. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations, including the ability of Sentry Select to pay the distribution on the date specified. Although Sentry Select believe that the assumptions inherent in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and, accordingly, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. Sentry Select undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statement or information whether as a result of new information, future events or other such factors which affect this information, except as required by law.
Sentry Select Capital Corp.The Exchange Tower130 King Street WestSuite 2850, P.O. Box 104Toronto, Ontario M5X 1A4Telephone: (416) 861-8729Fax: (416) 364-5615
The Notes
Sentry Select Rogers International Commodity Index Principal-Protected Notes, Series 1 are deposit notes, issued by National Bank of Canada. The performance of the Notes is linked to the appreciation of (i) a portfolio of commodities managed by Diapason Commodities Management SA with the objective to replicate the performance of the Rogers International Commodity IndexTM (RICI) and (ii) certain fixed-income and/or money-market instruments (the "Benchmark Portfolio").
Annual income
On each anniversary date of the issuance of the Notes, subject to certain conditions, investors may be entitled to receive an amount per Note equal to (i) the sum of, for each day of that year, the Canadian overnight financing rate of the Bank of Canada, less 0.50%, divided by 365, multiplied by a specified amount of cash or cash equivalent instruments held in the Benchmark Portfolio for that day, (ii) divided by the number of Notes outstanding. If the value of the Benchmark Portfolio becomes equal to or less than a specified level, no amount will be paid to the investors on any anniversary date of the Notes.
Sentry Select Capital Corp.
Sentry Select Capital Corp. is a Canadian wealth management company that manages approximately $5.5 billion in gross assets as of September 30, 2008. The company offers a diverse range of investment products including closed-end trusts, mutual funds, hedge funds, principal-protected notes and flow-through limited partnerships, covering a variety of domestic and global mandates.
The Notes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by James Beeland Rogers, Jim Rogers or Beeland Interests Inc. (collectively "Beeland") or Diapason Commodities Management SA ("Diapason"). Beeland and Diapason make no representation or warranty, express or implied, to investors in the Notes or any potential investor, governmental authority, or any member of the public, regarding the advisability of investing in securities or commodities generally, or in the Notes or futures particularly. "Jim Rogers", "Rogers International Commodity Index", "RICI" are trademarks and service marks owned by Beeland.
Diapason Commodities Management SA is a limited partnership and commodity operator whose main mandate is to promote and distribute products designed around the Rogers International Commodity IndexTM. Diapason is owned by its management, who are experienced professionals in the fields of asset management, commodity markets, futures and options trading and it is managing in excess of 1.1 billion Euros in assets.
"Jim Rogers", "James Beeland Rogers", "Rogers", "Rogers International Commodity Index", and "RICI" are trademarks and service marks of Beeland Interests, Inc., which is owned and controlled by James Beeland Rogers, Jr., and are used subject to license. The name and likeness of Jim Rogers/James Beeland Rogers are trademarks and service marks of James Beeland Rogers, Jr.
"Sentry Select Rogers International Commodity Index Principal-Protected Notes are not and will not be offered or sold in the United States to or for the account of U.S. Persons as defined by U.S. securities laws. Each purchaser of the Notes will be asked to certify that such purchaser is not a U.S. Person, is not receiving the Notes in the United States, and is not acquiring the Notes for the benefit of a U.S. Person."
Certain statements included in this news release constitute forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those identified by the expressions "expect", "intend", "will" and similar expressions to the extent they relate to Sentry Select Capital Corp. ("Sentry Select"). The forward-looking statements are not historical facts but reflect Sentry Select's current expectations regarding future results or events. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations, including the ability of Sentry Select to pay the distribution on the date specified. Although Sentry Select believe that the assumptions inherent in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and, accordingly, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. Sentry Select undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statement or information whether as a result of new information, future events or other such factors which affect this information, except as required by law.
Sentry Select Capital Corp.The Exchange Tower130 King Street WestSuite 2850, P.O. Box 104Toronto, Ontario M5X 1A4Telephone: (416) 861-8729Fax: (416) 364-5615
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Weakening Economy Continues to Drive Down Oil, Gas Prices
Weakening economic conditions continue to put downward pressure on oil prices, which in turn is also driving down the price of gasoline as consumers continue to tighten their wallets and spend only on necessities.
Oil for December delivery fell as low as $60.16 today, and ended up settling at $60.77 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent Crude in London moved in step, falling by $4.44 to settle at $57.43 for December delivery.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. have continued to fall as well, with overnight averages coming in at $2.34 a gallon according to the AAA, and could fall to $2.00 a gallon by the end of 2008.
Oil for December delivery fell as low as $60.16 today, and ended up settling at $60.77 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent Crude in London moved in step, falling by $4.44 to settle at $57.43 for December delivery.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. have continued to fall as well, with overnight averages coming in at $2.34 a gallon according to the AAA, and could fall to $2.00 a gallon by the end of 2008.
Commodities: US Dollar Strengthens
As Europe is starting to be hit hard by a weakening economy, central banks dropped lending rates in hopes of spurring investment. In response, the U.S. dollar strengthened today against the British pound and the euro. That won't keep the collapse of the U.S dollar from happening.
While the move by the European Central Bank of cutting its benchmark rate by 50 basis points was as expected, dropping it to 3.25 percent, the Bank of England shocked investors with an extraordinary cut of 150 points, bringing rates down to 3 percent. The Swiss National Bank dropped rates by 50 points to 2 percent.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in a Reuters Television interview that a cut next month is a possibility, depending on the circumstances faced.
"I didn't exclude a further cut in December, depending on the data, depending on the information that will be gathered, depending on the projections that we could examine at the time, including of course the staff projections."
Analyst believe the rates for the ECB will drop to 2.5 percent by the middle of 2009.
Trichet added that while it looks like inflation will fall below 2 percent for 2009 for the Euro zone, oil and commodity prices will determine if that will be the reality. In October inflation dropped to 3.2 percent from its high of 4.0 percent during the summer months.
The European Commission isn't expecting any economic growth in the region over the next year.
All the ups and downs of the U.S. dollar, and the press alerting us to when it rises, won't keep the greenback for collapsing sometime soon - the U.S. dollar could collapse in 2009.
While the move by the European Central Bank of cutting its benchmark rate by 50 basis points was as expected, dropping it to 3.25 percent, the Bank of England shocked investors with an extraordinary cut of 150 points, bringing rates down to 3 percent. The Swiss National Bank dropped rates by 50 points to 2 percent.
![[Most Recent Exchange Rate from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/exrate/24hr-euro-small.gif)
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in a Reuters Television interview that a cut next month is a possibility, depending on the circumstances faced.
"I didn't exclude a further cut in December, depending on the data, depending on the information that will be gathered, depending on the projections that we could examine at the time, including of course the staff projections."
Analyst believe the rates for the ECB will drop to 2.5 percent by the middle of 2009.
Trichet added that while it looks like inflation will fall below 2 percent for 2009 for the Euro zone, oil and commodity prices will determine if that will be the reality. In October inflation dropped to 3.2 percent from its high of 4.0 percent during the summer months.
The European Commission isn't expecting any economic growth in the region over the next year.
![[Most Recent Exchange Rate from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/exrate/24hr-gbp-small.gif)
All the ups and downs of the U.S. dollar, and the press alerting us to when it rises, won't keep the greenback for collapsing sometime soon - the U.S. dollar could collapse in 2009.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Commodities: Wheat Prices Drop Three-week Low
Wheat prices fall as commodity grain production increases
Wheat for December delivery dropped to $5.372 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade, as global production has increased significantly, and India announced it would be offering 2 million tons of wheat to its neighbors, putting more downward pressure on the worldwide market. That's the lowest price level in three weeks.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture report on export sales data is expected to confirm these facts, and wheat could fall even more.
Wheat exports for the week ending October 30 are down a huge 40 percent from the week ending October 23, falling to 13.2 million bushels.
Global wheat production is projected to grow 12 percent through June to 683 million metric tons or 25.1 billion bushels.
A little hope has emerged as dry weather in Argentina may help keep wheat prices from falling too much.
But even with some of the drought conditions in China putting a little pressure on wheat commodity prices and wheat futures, it won't be enough to push wheat prices any higher as there was so much wheat produced and on the market this year, that even dry weather and drought conditions hasn't been enough to push commodity grain prices up, including corn futures, soybean futures, and wheat futures.
Commodity traders will have to look at some of the base metal futures and the oil contango for not only a haven for their money, but a place to make some money in the commodity and overall market in 2009.
Wheat for December delivery dropped to $5.372 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade, as global production has increased significantly, and India announced it would be offering 2 million tons of wheat to its neighbors, putting more downward pressure on the worldwide market. That's the lowest price level in three weeks.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture report on export sales data is expected to confirm these facts, and wheat could fall even more.
Wheat exports for the week ending October 30 are down a huge 40 percent from the week ending October 23, falling to 13.2 million bushels.
Global wheat production is projected to grow 12 percent through June to 683 million metric tons or 25.1 billion bushels.
A little hope has emerged as dry weather in Argentina may help keep wheat prices from falling too much.
But even with some of the drought conditions in China putting a little pressure on wheat commodity prices and wheat futures, it won't be enough to push wheat prices any higher as there was so much wheat produced and on the market this year, that even dry weather and drought conditions hasn't been enough to push commodity grain prices up, including corn futures, soybean futures, and wheat futures.
Commodity traders will have to look at some of the base metal futures and the oil contango for not only a haven for their money, but a place to make some money in the commodity and overall market in 2009.
Commodities: Obama's Failed Ethanol Policy
Ethanol as a viable commodity is a joke, yet Obama following same failed Bush policies
The more things "change," the more they stay the same, and that is how it will be with Barack Obama and the ongoing ethanol debacle in America.
With Obama, it's obvious the reasons why, as government subsidies pour into his home state of Illinois, the nations second-largest producer of corn.
Obama campaign senior energy adviser Heather Zichal said concerning Obama's ethanol policy that "Obama recognizes how important the renewable and biofuels industry is to creating jobs and meeting our goal of reducing dependence on foreign oil. He's fully committed to it and sees tremendous value in the renewable fuels standard and continuing down this path."
So the man of change is going to keep the Bush policy goal of a "minimum of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022," said Zichal. At this time ethanol loses close to 66 cents a gallon at existing prices.
Oil refiners receive a subsidy of 51 cents a gallon for the ethanol mixed with regular gasoline, and a stiff 54 cent-a-gallon tariff is put on the sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil.
The continued idiocy of saying we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil when we have billions upon billions of barrels proven to be on American soil or off its coastlines is dishonest at best.
There is no way the corn-based ethanol industry currently touted can survive, no matter what the government says. The idea now being thrown about is to use cellulosic ethanol, which is made from non-food crops.
One major problem is it costs about twice as much as corn-based ethanol to produce. Another is it's years away from being any significant contributor to our energy needs, if it ever will be. We need answers in the near future, not 10 or more years from now.
The corn-based ethanol problem is even worse, as it has already caused a lot of pain to poor people around the world who suffered from the resultant high food prices from the misguided effort, and riots ensued in a number of countries because of skyrocketing food costs.
Another huge problem is the increased costs to meat producers in the U.S., who have been damaged greatly from higher feed costs.
This is one area we need to simply toss aside and refuse to bring politics into. The damage is extensive and it'll only get worse if we keep going in this direction.
I wonder if this is the type of "change" Obama was supposedly going to initiate? This ethanol policy and the resultant illusion that it's a real commodity continues to be destructive, as shown by the damage it does to small engine power equipment like chainsaws, snowmobiles and generators.
The more things "change," the more they stay the same, and that is how it will be with Barack Obama and the ongoing ethanol debacle in America.
With Obama, it's obvious the reasons why, as government subsidies pour into his home state of Illinois, the nations second-largest producer of corn.
Obama campaign senior energy adviser Heather Zichal said concerning Obama's ethanol policy that "Obama recognizes how important the renewable and biofuels industry is to creating jobs and meeting our goal of reducing dependence on foreign oil. He's fully committed to it and sees tremendous value in the renewable fuels standard and continuing down this path."
So the man of change is going to keep the Bush policy goal of a "minimum of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022," said Zichal. At this time ethanol loses close to 66 cents a gallon at existing prices.
Oil refiners receive a subsidy of 51 cents a gallon for the ethanol mixed with regular gasoline, and a stiff 54 cent-a-gallon tariff is put on the sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil.
The continued idiocy of saying we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil when we have billions upon billions of barrels proven to be on American soil or off its coastlines is dishonest at best.
There is no way the corn-based ethanol industry currently touted can survive, no matter what the government says. The idea now being thrown about is to use cellulosic ethanol, which is made from non-food crops.
One major problem is it costs about twice as much as corn-based ethanol to produce. Another is it's years away from being any significant contributor to our energy needs, if it ever will be. We need answers in the near future, not 10 or more years from now.
The corn-based ethanol problem is even worse, as it has already caused a lot of pain to poor people around the world who suffered from the resultant high food prices from the misguided effort, and riots ensued in a number of countries because of skyrocketing food costs.
Another huge problem is the increased costs to meat producers in the U.S., who have been damaged greatly from higher feed costs.
This is one area we need to simply toss aside and refuse to bring politics into. The damage is extensive and it'll only get worse if we keep going in this direction.
I wonder if this is the type of "change" Obama was supposedly going to initiate? This ethanol policy and the resultant illusion that it's a real commodity continues to be destructive, as shown by the damage it does to small engine power equipment like chainsaws, snowmobiles and generators.
Commodities: Vietnamese Coffee Harvest
Vietnam coffee prices down as rains hinder commodity from being harvested
Supply of coffee from Vietnam has been hampered as rain continues to keep farmers from harvesting their crop. Rains in the Central Highlands ares has specifically hindered the harvest.
Although the coffee harvesting began about two weeks earlier than normal, starting on October 20, farmers haven't been able get to their fields to start the bean-drying process. The cloudy weather has also kept land from drying quicker as well.
Even so, another factor is the price of coffee, which has pressured prices downward, and Vietnamese farmers are probably in no hurry to get back in the fields either, hoping the demand will drive prices up more.
"This demand has put pressure on Vietnamese prices but given the supply of fresh beans remains thin, the market has not stirred much," said a trader in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s main coffee trading market, in reference to shipment from Indonesia being delayed after the sharp drop in prices. About 30,000 tons of coffee beans could be defaulted on, driving buyers to the Vietnamese market.
Bids for the week have come in at between $140 to $190 a ton, while contracts for January ranged from $160 to $175.
Vietnam is only behind Brazil worldwide in producing coffee beans.
Hopefully the commodity problems will be solved so farmers can have a successful year.
Supply of coffee from Vietnam has been hampered as rain continues to keep farmers from harvesting their crop. Rains in the Central Highlands ares has specifically hindered the harvest.
Although the coffee harvesting began about two weeks earlier than normal, starting on October 20, farmers haven't been able get to their fields to start the bean-drying process. The cloudy weather has also kept land from drying quicker as well.
Even so, another factor is the price of coffee, which has pressured prices downward, and Vietnamese farmers are probably in no hurry to get back in the fields either, hoping the demand will drive prices up more.
"This demand has put pressure on Vietnamese prices but given the supply of fresh beans remains thin, the market has not stirred much," said a trader in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s main coffee trading market, in reference to shipment from Indonesia being delayed after the sharp drop in prices. About 30,000 tons of coffee beans could be defaulted on, driving buyers to the Vietnamese market.
Bids for the week have come in at between $140 to $190 a ton, while contracts for January ranged from $160 to $175.
Vietnam is only behind Brazil worldwide in producing coffee beans.
Hopefully the commodity problems will be solved so farmers can have a successful year.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Commodities: Sugar Production in India Could Drop
Indian sugar prices drop as the commodity weakens in industry battle
A battle between sugar mills and sugarcane farmers could end up causing the Indian sugar industry about 25 percent in production, as the combatants await an Indian Supreme Court decision on pricing.
Farmers in Uttar Pradesh are starting to supply high-recovery sugarcane to jaggery units, threatening the sugar output in India this year.
With Indian farmers needing to turn sell their crop in order to plant their fields in wheat, pressure is on them to sell.
Sugarcane loses its sucrose (sweetener) content over a period of time, also pressuring farmers to sell quickly. Cane with lower sugar content isn't usable in sugar mills.
When Uttar Pradesh raised prices above the state advised price (SAP), it started the battle, as sugar mills in India argue they can't crush can profitably at those prices.
The two participants are awaiting a decision of the Supreme Court and Allahabad High Court. Until that time the commodity will struggle to maintain prices.
A battle between sugar mills and sugarcane farmers could end up causing the Indian sugar industry about 25 percent in production, as the combatants await an Indian Supreme Court decision on pricing.
Farmers in Uttar Pradesh are starting to supply high-recovery sugarcane to jaggery units, threatening the sugar output in India this year.
With Indian farmers needing to turn sell their crop in order to plant their fields in wheat, pressure is on them to sell.
Sugarcane loses its sucrose (sweetener) content over a period of time, also pressuring farmers to sell quickly. Cane with lower sugar content isn't usable in sugar mills.
When Uttar Pradesh raised prices above the state advised price (SAP), it started the battle, as sugar mills in India argue they can't crush can profitably at those prices.
The two participants are awaiting a decision of the Supreme Court and Allahabad High Court. Until that time the commodity will struggle to maintain prices.
Commodities: Jim Rogers Video Economic Issues
Jim Rogers video on commodities and other economic concerns.
Commodities: Jim Rogers - America is bankrupt
Commodities will increase in price as last bubble - US Treasury Bonds - bursts!
America is bankrupt, according to investment legend Jim Rogers. "The American government bonds are the world’s last bubble and the price of commodities has to increase."
Charismatic
The famous and charismatic investor, guru if you will, Jim Rogers, visited ABN Amro Netherlands last Friday. RTL Z was at ABN headquarters as well and recorded a number of statements, investment tips and opinions about the world economy.
Rogers
During the seventies Jim Rogers (66) managed a successful hedge fund with George Soros. After that, he traveled and went into commodities.
Last Friday Rogers went at it in front of a roomful of ABN private banking clients. We had an exclusive 15-minute interview with Rogers.
The most important points:
America is bankrupt. American government bonds are extremely overvalued. "The world’s last bubble." America is in debt for over 13.000 billion (13 trillion) dollar and adds a 1.000 billion dollar debt each year. According to Rogers this can not continue for long. Therefore, he went short in long-term US goverment bonds. “These bonds have peaked.” By the way: Rogers owns Dutch government bonds. “They are safe.”
"The fact that the dollar is gaining rapidly is only temporary", Rogers says. “All hedge funds were short on the dollar and because of the appreciation of the dollar there is a short squeeze for the dollar. Managers have to close thier positions and they have to buy dollars instead.” “This is temporary, within a year you have to get rid of the dollar. Fundamentally it is a drama.”
Commodities
Last year we spoke Rogers as well. At that time he advised us to invest blindly in commodities and agriculture. That was a bad advice, because Rogers’ commodities index (Rici) has fallen around 40 per cent last year, while ABN’s African Commodities Certificate dropped even from 11 euros to 5 euros during that time.
Oil
Rogers: "Whether oil costs 45 or 145 dollars, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that with oil, like with many other commodities, supply is decreasing while demand is increasing. In the long run this will result in a considerable increase in prices."
"The question is not if the price of a barrel of oil will increase again, but how expensive a barrel of oil will be eventually?"
"The oil supply will fall with 6 to 9 per cent each year, according to the IAE. The demand for oil will increase in China and developing countries. This has nothing to do with economy, the market is simple. It is simply the law of supply and demand."
High inflation
Rogers has been telling his commodity-story for a few years now. On Friday he sighed while saying: "People don’t understand that the commodity-market will be bullish, this will lead to high inflation."
Commodity prices will be a lot higher in the future than they are now.
"The world is going to change, there is no way around it. If you don’t understand that and you don’t adapt you will be suffering in five years. The Chinese see on TV how we live in the West. They want that too! That generates an enormous demand for products and materials."
"All countries in the world have been printing money, the United States in particular. That created a huge amount of money, resulting in the icing on the cake for commodity prices. But fundamentally you have to look at supply and demand."
The United States
Rogers has been negative about the United States for a long time. "You should be worried, America is out of control". The enemies of the United States are currently looking into how to profit from the weaknesses of the United States. When we asked him: Obama or McCain? he answered: "Neither of them. They are both turkeys, they take the wrong decicions."
Bernanke or Trichet?
Rogers is not a big fan of Bernanke, the president of the Federal Reserve. With a big smile Rogers tells us: "Bernanke will continue to print money until there are no trees left in America."
He is more positive about Trichet of the ECB. At least he knows what he is doing and what it’s all about.""
Banks
Rogers is fiercely against bailing out the banks. "That has never worked. Let them go bankrupt. Right now bad-managed banks are saved with money from good banks and from you and me. After that, the failing but nationalized banks are going to compete with the well-managed banks and they gain their market share. Ridiculous. The Bail-out plan is a disaster. In 1929 we had a recession but after the government interfered, it became a depression. You should not interfere."
Stocks
Rogers: "You can make good money with stock-picking, perhaps even more than with commodities, but only if you pick the right equity at the right moment. The stockmarket in the west is still too expensive. But the market is extremely volatile. In the five years to come you can earn money with trading ranges".
China and Russia
"Do know know what the problem is? When at work, the Chinese people ask when they can work and what they can do. We ask how day's off we have. That’s a big difference."
Rogers has bought Chinese equities in the last few weeks. "I don’t know if we have reached the bottom, but the market is low. I am a bad timer, by the way."
"My daughter is five years old and she speaks Mandarin fluently. After the dollar has collapsed as a world currency, there is only one currency that could take over that role: the renminbi. That could happen in 15 to 20 years. Other currencies cannot take over the role of the dollar, including the euro."
Russia
The former Soviet Union will be split up in even more smaller countries. And with that, there will be some wars."
"In Russia you are lucky if they kill you right away. You are unlucky if they first arrest you, then keep you in prisson for 15 years, torture you and kill you after that". He joked.
"What you see therby is that the Russians take their capital abroad, while the Chinese take it home."
City or countryside?
According to Rogers farmers have a bright future. "within a few years farmers will drive Maserati’s and all stockbrokers will be cabdrivers."
In Holland you could have a farm with a lot of land at the moment. “Agriculture has been out of vogue for 30 years, but now it will be hot because the demand for food will increase greatly."
“The stupidest thing you can do right now is to sell your farm and buy a house in the city instead. The housing market is in decline."
War
And finally: "If a war breaks out, it will begin in the Middle East. Amsterdam will be last. I would love to live here if the weather was any better... Amsterdam should have been 600 miles further to the south!"
The Treasury bond market continues to look like it's about to burst, and commodities will be the only place of safety left for investors.
America is bankrupt, according to investment legend Jim Rogers. "The American government bonds are the world’s last bubble and the price of commodities has to increase."
Charismatic
The famous and charismatic investor, guru if you will, Jim Rogers, visited ABN Amro Netherlands last Friday. RTL Z was at ABN headquarters as well and recorded a number of statements, investment tips and opinions about the world economy.
Rogers
During the seventies Jim Rogers (66) managed a successful hedge fund with George Soros. After that, he traveled and went into commodities.
Last Friday Rogers went at it in front of a roomful of ABN private banking clients. We had an exclusive 15-minute interview with Rogers.
The most important points:
America is bankrupt. American government bonds are extremely overvalued. "The world’s last bubble." America is in debt for over 13.000 billion (13 trillion) dollar and adds a 1.000 billion dollar debt each year. According to Rogers this can not continue for long. Therefore, he went short in long-term US goverment bonds. “These bonds have peaked.” By the way: Rogers owns Dutch government bonds. “They are safe.”
"The fact that the dollar is gaining rapidly is only temporary", Rogers says. “All hedge funds were short on the dollar and because of the appreciation of the dollar there is a short squeeze for the dollar. Managers have to close thier positions and they have to buy dollars instead.” “This is temporary, within a year you have to get rid of the dollar. Fundamentally it is a drama.”
Commodities
Last year we spoke Rogers as well. At that time he advised us to invest blindly in commodities and agriculture. That was a bad advice, because Rogers’ commodities index (Rici) has fallen around 40 per cent last year, while ABN’s African Commodities Certificate dropped even from 11 euros to 5 euros during that time.
Oil
Rogers: "Whether oil costs 45 or 145 dollars, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that with oil, like with many other commodities, supply is decreasing while demand is increasing. In the long run this will result in a considerable increase in prices."
"The question is not if the price of a barrel of oil will increase again, but how expensive a barrel of oil will be eventually?"
"The oil supply will fall with 6 to 9 per cent each year, according to the IAE. The demand for oil will increase in China and developing countries. This has nothing to do with economy, the market is simple. It is simply the law of supply and demand."
High inflation
Rogers has been telling his commodity-story for a few years now. On Friday he sighed while saying: "People don’t understand that the commodity-market will be bullish, this will lead to high inflation."
Commodity prices will be a lot higher in the future than they are now.
"The world is going to change, there is no way around it. If you don’t understand that and you don’t adapt you will be suffering in five years. The Chinese see on TV how we live in the West. They want that too! That generates an enormous demand for products and materials."
"All countries in the world have been printing money, the United States in particular. That created a huge amount of money, resulting in the icing on the cake for commodity prices. But fundamentally you have to look at supply and demand."
The United States
Rogers has been negative about the United States for a long time. "You should be worried, America is out of control". The enemies of the United States are currently looking into how to profit from the weaknesses of the United States. When we asked him: Obama or McCain? he answered: "Neither of them. They are both turkeys, they take the wrong decicions."
Bernanke or Trichet?
Rogers is not a big fan of Bernanke, the president of the Federal Reserve. With a big smile Rogers tells us: "Bernanke will continue to print money until there are no trees left in America."
He is more positive about Trichet of the ECB. At least he knows what he is doing and what it’s all about.""
Banks
Rogers is fiercely against bailing out the banks. "That has never worked. Let them go bankrupt. Right now bad-managed banks are saved with money from good banks and from you and me. After that, the failing but nationalized banks are going to compete with the well-managed banks and they gain their market share. Ridiculous. The Bail-out plan is a disaster. In 1929 we had a recession but after the government interfered, it became a depression. You should not interfere."
Stocks
Rogers: "You can make good money with stock-picking, perhaps even more than with commodities, but only if you pick the right equity at the right moment. The stockmarket in the west is still too expensive. But the market is extremely volatile. In the five years to come you can earn money with trading ranges".
China and Russia
"Do know know what the problem is? When at work, the Chinese people ask when they can work and what they can do. We ask how day's off we have. That’s a big difference."
Rogers has bought Chinese equities in the last few weeks. "I don’t know if we have reached the bottom, but the market is low. I am a bad timer, by the way."
"My daughter is five years old and she speaks Mandarin fluently. After the dollar has collapsed as a world currency, there is only one currency that could take over that role: the renminbi. That could happen in 15 to 20 years. Other currencies cannot take over the role of the dollar, including the euro."
Russia
The former Soviet Union will be split up in even more smaller countries. And with that, there will be some wars."
"In Russia you are lucky if they kill you right away. You are unlucky if they first arrest you, then keep you in prisson for 15 years, torture you and kill you after that". He joked.
"What you see therby is that the Russians take their capital abroad, while the Chinese take it home."
City or countryside?
According to Rogers farmers have a bright future. "within a few years farmers will drive Maserati’s and all stockbrokers will be cabdrivers."
In Holland you could have a farm with a lot of land at the moment. “Agriculture has been out of vogue for 30 years, but now it will be hot because the demand for food will increase greatly."
“The stupidest thing you can do right now is to sell your farm and buy a house in the city instead. The housing market is in decline."
War
And finally: "If a war breaks out, it will begin in the Middle East. Amsterdam will be last. I would love to live here if the weather was any better... Amsterdam should have been 600 miles further to the south!"
The Treasury bond market continues to look like it's about to burst, and commodities will be the only place of safety left for investors.
Commodities: Jim Rogers Likes Silver
Jim Rogers said he likes commodity metal silver better than gold this year
Jim Rogers said in an interview Monday that he thinks silver will be a better investment than gold this year, as continued pressure to raise cash by large funds, central banks and possibly the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could continue to pressure the yellow metal down.
“Silver will do better than gold,” Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said on Monday in an interview. “It’s been beaten down horribly. If you put a gun to my head and said you have to buy one, I would buy silver rather than gold.”
While the IMF has agreed to a plan to sell gold in May, it still has to gain legislative approval from member countries to go ahead with sales. To reduce a budget deficit, the IMF will sell 403.3 metric tons of gold if approved.
Although he believes silver will outperform gold, he said if gold continues to have downward pressure, he will start buying into it again.
He reiterated his assertions that the current commodity sell-off doesn't represent the underlying fundamentals, and they'll come back much higher.
Inflation and the ability to meet surging demand will push metal, energy and agricultural prices higher, said Rogers.
The emerging Chinese middle class pretty much guarantees this will happen, and once commodities begin their rebound, the commodity bull market will continue on and last longer than projected because of this temporary slowdown.
It'll be interesting to see whether silver indeed does surpass gold in 2009 in the commodity sector.
Jim Rogers said in an interview Monday that he thinks silver will be a better investment than gold this year, as continued pressure to raise cash by large funds, central banks and possibly the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could continue to pressure the yellow metal down.
“Silver will do better than gold,” Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said on Monday in an interview. “It’s been beaten down horribly. If you put a gun to my head and said you have to buy one, I would buy silver rather than gold.”
While the IMF has agreed to a plan to sell gold in May, it still has to gain legislative approval from member countries to go ahead with sales. To reduce a budget deficit, the IMF will sell 403.3 metric tons of gold if approved.
Although he believes silver will outperform gold, he said if gold continues to have downward pressure, he will start buying into it again.
He reiterated his assertions that the current commodity sell-off doesn't represent the underlying fundamentals, and they'll come back much higher.
Inflation and the ability to meet surging demand will push metal, energy and agricultural prices higher, said Rogers.
The emerging Chinese middle class pretty much guarantees this will happen, and once commodities begin their rebound, the commodity bull market will continue on and last longer than projected because of this temporary slowdown.
It'll be interesting to see whether silver indeed does surpass gold in 2009 in the commodity sector.
Commodities: Corn Products International Guidance
Corn Products International Inc. (CPO), a company which refines the commodity corn for use in a number of industrial and food products, revised its yearly guidance upward today, based on a strong third quarter performance.
Original guidance was at $3.15 t $3.25 a share, now its upwardly revised to $3.40 to $3.60 a share. Analysts' expectations were for about $3.29 a share.
Corn Products International is poised to be taken over by industry giant Bunge LTD (BG) late in 2008, in response to the devastated commodities market which has driven down the share prices of the two companies. The target month was originally for November.
Corn Products International has had its share price fall by close to 50 percent, while Bunge has plunged by 69 percent, as they have a high exposure to currency-exchange rate flucuations.
Profits for the quarter increased to $88.1 million, or $1.15 a share, from last year's $51.1 million, or 66 cents a share. That growth of 72 percent.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.16 billion, up from $938.7 million during the same period last year; a 23 percent increase.
Similar to Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), less international commodity exposure helped them in relationship to currency exchange rates.
Original guidance was at $3.15 t $3.25 a share, now its upwardly revised to $3.40 to $3.60 a share. Analysts' expectations were for about $3.29 a share.
Corn Products International is poised to be taken over by industry giant Bunge LTD (BG) late in 2008, in response to the devastated commodities market which has driven down the share prices of the two companies. The target month was originally for November.
Corn Products International has had its share price fall by close to 50 percent, while Bunge has plunged by 69 percent, as they have a high exposure to currency-exchange rate flucuations.
Profits for the quarter increased to $88.1 million, or $1.15 a share, from last year's $51.1 million, or 66 cents a share. That growth of 72 percent.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.16 billion, up from $938.7 million during the same period last year; a 23 percent increase.
Similar to Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), less international commodity exposure helped them in relationship to currency exchange rates.
Commodities: Archer Daniels Midland Profit
Commodity company Archer Daniel's Midland doubles net income
At a glance it looks like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) had a great quarter, as net income more than doubled. In reality, the company gains were primarily from lower tax rates and change in accounting concerning inventory valuations.
A couple other factors in the rise in profits were increased sales prices as well as currency exchange-rates. Because Archer Daniels has less global exposure, they were able to perform better than their chief competitor Bunge Ltd (BG), which was down 50 percent from Wall Street expectations.
Even so, for now the company will enjoy a brief surge in stock price based on exceeding expectations of 69 cents a share, excluding items. Net income surged to $1.63 a share for the quarter ending September 30, or $1.05 billion. Last year in the same period net income was $441 millon, or 68 cents a share.
Revenue for the quarter grew by 65 percent to $21.16 billion, in spite of overall volume being about the same. Most of that was due to higher commodity costs which drove the prices up. That and hitting the currency exchange-rates at the right time drove the revenue increase.
Particularly strong in the quarter was the agricultural services and oilseed processing divisions. That was partly offset by the surging costs of energy and corn during the quarter.
Operational margins grew from 7.2 percent to 8.8 percent.
Much of ADM's success stems from their corn-processing facilities, whereby they're able to take the feedstock and put into whatever product has the best profits at any given time. That and their ability to manage the currency-exchange rates well has helped them immensely.
Still, the change in inventory valuation has helped them look much stronger than they really were during the quarter, and that needs to be strongly taken into consideration when looking at its seemingly overwhelming positive profits performance.
Looking ahead, commodity based companies will rebound as demand for resources rises again. Archer Midland Daniels will rise with them.
At a glance it looks like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) had a great quarter, as net income more than doubled. In reality, the company gains were primarily from lower tax rates and change in accounting concerning inventory valuations.
A couple other factors in the rise in profits were increased sales prices as well as currency exchange-rates. Because Archer Daniels has less global exposure, they were able to perform better than their chief competitor Bunge Ltd (BG), which was down 50 percent from Wall Street expectations.
Even so, for now the company will enjoy a brief surge in stock price based on exceeding expectations of 69 cents a share, excluding items. Net income surged to $1.63 a share for the quarter ending September 30, or $1.05 billion. Last year in the same period net income was $441 millon, or 68 cents a share.
Revenue for the quarter grew by 65 percent to $21.16 billion, in spite of overall volume being about the same. Most of that was due to higher commodity costs which drove the prices up. That and hitting the currency exchange-rates at the right time drove the revenue increase.
Particularly strong in the quarter was the agricultural services and oilseed processing divisions. That was partly offset by the surging costs of energy and corn during the quarter.
Operational margins grew from 7.2 percent to 8.8 percent.
Much of ADM's success stems from their corn-processing facilities, whereby they're able to take the feedstock and put into whatever product has the best profits at any given time. That and their ability to manage the currency-exchange rates well has helped them immensely.
Still, the change in inventory valuation has helped them look much stronger than they really were during the quarter, and that needs to be strongly taken into consideration when looking at its seemingly overwhelming positive profits performance.
Looking ahead, commodity based companies will rebound as demand for resources rises again. Archer Midland Daniels will rise with them.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Aura Silver Reports High Grade Copper, Zinc and Precious Metal Samples from Greyhound Lake Project
OTTAWA, ONTARIO, Nov 03, 2008 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Aura Silver Resources Inc. ("Aura Silver") (CA:AUU: news, chart, profile) is pleased to announce results of a field program undertaken in August on the Greyhound Lake project in Nunavut. Samples collected during the field work contained up to 4.1% copper (Cu), 13.4% zinc (Zn), 8% lead (Pb), 2800 grams per tonne (g/t) silver (Ag) and 28g/t gold (Au). The mineralization occurs in a variety of geologic settings.
The Greyhound property comprises approximately 23,000 hectares in 25 mineral claims and is 100% owned by Aura Silver. It is located about 40 kilometres north of the community of Baker Lake and 30 kilometres south of Agnico-Eagle's Meadowbank Gold Mine which contains a probable gold reserve of 3.5 million ounces at an average grade of 3.7 grams per tonne ( www.agnico-eagle.com). The all-weather road to Meadowbank passes through the western part of the Greyhound property.
The Greyhound area has long been known to host highly anomalous metal values. As previously reported by Aura Silver, two samples collected in 1998 contained 1,632 and 3,400 g/t silver. In 2006, Aura Silver acquired mineral claims to cover the area of these high values and completed an airborne EM and magnetic survey. In 2007, prospecting and mapping of the claims resulted in the discovery of volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) style mineralization along an exhalite horizon with samples containing 2.4% Zn, 8.2% Pb, 1.0% Cu, 10g/t Au, and 51g/t Ag.
During June 2008, an additional airborne EM and magnetic survey was completed. Based on the results of this survey and the prospecting results from 2007, Aura's geological team completed a further investigation of the property. This work focused on prospecting the exhalite zone for base and precious metals and evaluating the potential of the area using lithogeochemical analyses. Fifty five (55) assay samples and 146 lithogeochemical samples were submitted to the Yellowknife laboratory of ALS Chemex to determine the extent and intensity of base and precious metal enrichment (assay) and footwall alteration (lithogeochemical). The results of the assays are summarized in Tables 1 and 2.
Several mineralized zones have been found (see map, Figure 1, available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/aura_map_1103.pdf); three occur within an area of 6.6 square kilometres. The first, discovered in 2007, consists of frost-heaved slabs up to several metres in width along the eastern shore of Aura Lake. These contain zinc, lead and silver-bearing sulfides in siliceous exhalite (Table 2). The second is at the southeast corner of Aura Lake and comprises dozens of sub-cropping slabs of arsenopyrite-bearing felsic volcanic rock that are enriched in gold and base metals (Table 2, available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/aura_table2_1103.pdf). The third occurs to the northeast of Aura Lake, and is a 20 metre long train of frost-heaved angular massive sulfide boulders consisting of sphalerite, chalcopyrite and pyrite in altered felsic volcanic rocks. All three discoveries are of locally transported material, consisting of numerous fragments, each up to 0.5 metres wide. Their angularity is indicative that they were transported only a short distance. The area surrounding and under Aura Lake is deemed highly prospective.
The overall metal tenor of these three occurrences is typical of a high-temperature VMS system, similar to those observed in the Sturgeon Lake and Manitouwadge districts, Ontario. The upper part of the system (west Aura Lake) is silver, zinc and lead-rich; the lower part is copper and zinc-rich. The highly anomalous gold near the southeast corner of Aura Lake, as well as the north-central gold occurrence, is strongly correlated with arsenopyrite, similar to the Meadowbank gold system. Overall, the area may have some similarity to the Malartic, Quebec, camp, where a VMS system appears to have been overprinted by a slightly later orogenic or magmatic gold system.
The other occurrences are mainly to the north, and are both VMS and orogenic gold in style. These indicate that both mineralizing processes were operative throughout the greenstone belt.
Robert Boaz, President and CEO of Aura Silver said, "These results are exciting for us. Greyhound contains many elements of a classic, but relatively unexplored, volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) district and now also appears to have good potential for orogenic gold deposits."
The next phase of exploration will include ground geophysical surveys in the Aura Lake area, followed by diamond drilling. These are planned for the spring and summer of 2009. All of the anomalous areas discovered in 2008 will be further prospected.
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---
Percentile Au g/t Ag g/t Cu % Pb % Zn %
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50.00% 0.01 0.6 .006 .002 .010
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60.00% 0.02 0.8 .008 .003 .016
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70.00% 0.05 2.0 .014 .008 .022
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75.00% 0.10 3.7 .030 .012 .036
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80.00% 0.12 7.0 .040 .026 .057
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90.00% 0.47 64.3 .094 .089 3.010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
95.00% 2.41 345.8 .621 .122 10.573
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99.00% 27.62 2595.4 4.008 .848 13.383
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum 28.80 2700.0 4.080 .869 13.400
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1: Summary of the entire 55 assay samples in the Greyhound area,
2008 sampling. Assay data are from ALS Chemex, using their ME-MS61 (4 acid
dissolution) method.
Dr. James M. Franklin, P. Geo. is Aura Silver's qualified person (as defined by National Instrument 43-101) and has reviewed and approved the scientific and technical information in this press release.
About Aura Silver
Aura Silver is a TSX Venture listed company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of precious metal prospects in North America with a focus on silver. The Company has 38,208,902 common shares outstanding.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
This Press Release may contain forward looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual events or results could differ materially from the Company's expectations and projections. The TSX Venture Exchange has not approved or disapproved of the information contained in this press release.
Contacts:
Aura Silver Resources Inc.
Robert Boaz, President and CEO
905-403-8010
boaz@aurasilver.com
www.aurasilver.com
SOURCE: Aura Silver Resources Inc.
mailto:boaz@aurasilver.com
http://www.aurasilver.com
Copyright 2008 Market Wire, All rights reserved.
The Greyhound property comprises approximately 23,000 hectares in 25 mineral claims and is 100% owned by Aura Silver. It is located about 40 kilometres north of the community of Baker Lake and 30 kilometres south of Agnico-Eagle's Meadowbank Gold Mine which contains a probable gold reserve of 3.5 million ounces at an average grade of 3.7 grams per tonne ( www.agnico-eagle.com). The all-weather road to Meadowbank passes through the western part of the Greyhound property.
The Greyhound area has long been known to host highly anomalous metal values. As previously reported by Aura Silver, two samples collected in 1998 contained 1,632 and 3,400 g/t silver. In 2006, Aura Silver acquired mineral claims to cover the area of these high values and completed an airborne EM and magnetic survey. In 2007, prospecting and mapping of the claims resulted in the discovery of volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) style mineralization along an exhalite horizon with samples containing 2.4% Zn, 8.2% Pb, 1.0% Cu, 10g/t Au, and 51g/t Ag.
During June 2008, an additional airborne EM and magnetic survey was completed. Based on the results of this survey and the prospecting results from 2007, Aura's geological team completed a further investigation of the property. This work focused on prospecting the exhalite zone for base and precious metals and evaluating the potential of the area using lithogeochemical analyses. Fifty five (55) assay samples and 146 lithogeochemical samples were submitted to the Yellowknife laboratory of ALS Chemex to determine the extent and intensity of base and precious metal enrichment (assay) and footwall alteration (lithogeochemical). The results of the assays are summarized in Tables 1 and 2.
Several mineralized zones have been found (see map, Figure 1, available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/aura_map_1103.pdf); three occur within an area of 6.6 square kilometres. The first, discovered in 2007, consists of frost-heaved slabs up to several metres in width along the eastern shore of Aura Lake. These contain zinc, lead and silver-bearing sulfides in siliceous exhalite (Table 2). The second is at the southeast corner of Aura Lake and comprises dozens of sub-cropping slabs of arsenopyrite-bearing felsic volcanic rock that are enriched in gold and base metals (Table 2, available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/aura_table2_1103.pdf). The third occurs to the northeast of Aura Lake, and is a 20 metre long train of frost-heaved angular massive sulfide boulders consisting of sphalerite, chalcopyrite and pyrite in altered felsic volcanic rocks. All three discoveries are of locally transported material, consisting of numerous fragments, each up to 0.5 metres wide. Their angularity is indicative that they were transported only a short distance. The area surrounding and under Aura Lake is deemed highly prospective.
The overall metal tenor of these three occurrences is typical of a high-temperature VMS system, similar to those observed in the Sturgeon Lake and Manitouwadge districts, Ontario. The upper part of the system (west Aura Lake) is silver, zinc and lead-rich; the lower part is copper and zinc-rich. The highly anomalous gold near the southeast corner of Aura Lake, as well as the north-central gold occurrence, is strongly correlated with arsenopyrite, similar to the Meadowbank gold system. Overall, the area may have some similarity to the Malartic, Quebec, camp, where a VMS system appears to have been overprinted by a slightly later orogenic or magmatic gold system.
The other occurrences are mainly to the north, and are both VMS and orogenic gold in style. These indicate that both mineralizing processes were operative throughout the greenstone belt.
Robert Boaz, President and CEO of Aura Silver said, "These results are exciting for us. Greyhound contains many elements of a classic, but relatively unexplored, volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) district and now also appears to have good potential for orogenic gold deposits."
The next phase of exploration will include ground geophysical surveys in the Aura Lake area, followed by diamond drilling. These are planned for the spring and summer of 2009. All of the anomalous areas discovered in 2008 will be further prospected.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
---
Percentile Au g/t Ag g/t Cu % Pb % Zn %
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
50.00% 0.01 0.6 .006 .002 .010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
60.00% 0.02 0.8 .008 .003 .016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
70.00% 0.05 2.0 .014 .008 .022
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
75.00% 0.10 3.7 .030 .012 .036
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
80.00% 0.12 7.0 .040 .026 .057
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
90.00% 0.47 64.3 .094 .089 3.010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
95.00% 2.41 345.8 .621 .122 10.573
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
99.00% 27.62 2595.4 4.008 .848 13.383
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum 28.80 2700.0 4.080 .869 13.400
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1: Summary of the entire 55 assay samples in the Greyhound area,
2008 sampling. Assay data are from ALS Chemex, using their ME-MS61 (4 acid
dissolution) method.
Dr. James M. Franklin, P. Geo. is Aura Silver's qualified person (as defined by National Instrument 43-101) and has reviewed and approved the scientific and technical information in this press release.
About Aura Silver
Aura Silver is a TSX Venture listed company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of precious metal prospects in North America with a focus on silver. The Company has 38,208,902 common shares outstanding.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
This Press Release may contain forward looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual events or results could differ materially from the Company's expectations and projections. The TSX Venture Exchange has not approved or disapproved of the information contained in this press release.
Contacts:
Aura Silver Resources Inc.
Robert Boaz, President and CEO
905-403-8010
boaz@aurasilver.com
www.aurasilver.com
SOURCE: Aura Silver Resources Inc.
mailto:boaz@aurasilver.com
http://www.aurasilver.com
Copyright 2008 Market Wire, All rights reserved.
Commodities: Ethanol VeraSun Energy Bankruptcy
Ethanol as commodity continues to lose luster as VeraSun files for bankruptcy
The hugely misguided effort by the U.S. government to artificially produce an ethanol industry in America continues to flounder, with the latest casualty in the debacle being VeraSun Energy Corp., which has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
VeraSun Energy, which accounts for close to 13 percent of the ethanol capacity in the country, is attempting to get $190 million to meet expenses, including payroll. Other needs to be met are buying of corn, leases, natural gas, among a number of others.
Standard & Poor's also lowered the long-term credit rating of the company on its senior secured notes - due in 2012 - from "B-" to "D." They're worth about $210 million. VeraSun has about $450 million in unsecured notes - due in 2017 - lowered from "CCC" to "D."
With profit margins of about zero, almost no credit markets, and terrible, speculative bets on commodities, the company has no chance at operating in its current condition. Another major factor was its irresponsible debt load, which also make it impossible to operate at a profit.
If oil prices stay low for any significant period of time, it's expected that many of the players in the dubious industry will fail as well.
While VeraSun is expected to continue operating at full capacity, thus not helping its competitors, who may have had the opportunity to take over the market share of the company, it has a huge uphill battle, as its changes of suriving, let alone turning a profit remain slim to none.
It remains to be seen if some of the larger competitors of VeraSun will be able to operate at similar losses. Some of the bigger companies are the privately held Poet LLC, along with agribusiness behemoth Archer Daniels Midland.
We should just put this ethanol nonsense to a rest in the U.S., and start drilling for more proven oil reserves in the U.S. and on its coasts, while looking to develop options that have real chances of being successful alternatives to and complements to traditional energy sources.
What a waste of time and money the pursuit of ethanol has been in the U.S.
Update: Judge approves VeraSun's rare bankruptcy financing
End the ethanol subsidy now, or we'll see more ethanol companies collapse, as it's an artificial, propped up commodity, not a real one.
The hugely misguided effort by the U.S. government to artificially produce an ethanol industry in America continues to flounder, with the latest casualty in the debacle being VeraSun Energy Corp., which has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
VeraSun Energy, which accounts for close to 13 percent of the ethanol capacity in the country, is attempting to get $190 million to meet expenses, including payroll. Other needs to be met are buying of corn, leases, natural gas, among a number of others.
Standard & Poor's also lowered the long-term credit rating of the company on its senior secured notes - due in 2012 - from "B-" to "D." They're worth about $210 million. VeraSun has about $450 million in unsecured notes - due in 2017 - lowered from "CCC" to "D."
With profit margins of about zero, almost no credit markets, and terrible, speculative bets on commodities, the company has no chance at operating in its current condition. Another major factor was its irresponsible debt load, which also make it impossible to operate at a profit.
If oil prices stay low for any significant period of time, it's expected that many of the players in the dubious industry will fail as well.
While VeraSun is expected to continue operating at full capacity, thus not helping its competitors, who may have had the opportunity to take over the market share of the company, it has a huge uphill battle, as its changes of suriving, let alone turning a profit remain slim to none.
It remains to be seen if some of the larger competitors of VeraSun will be able to operate at similar losses. Some of the bigger companies are the privately held Poet LLC, along with agribusiness behemoth Archer Daniels Midland.
We should just put this ethanol nonsense to a rest in the U.S., and start drilling for more proven oil reserves in the U.S. and on its coasts, while looking to develop options that have real chances of being successful alternatives to and complements to traditional energy sources.
What a waste of time and money the pursuit of ethanol has been in the U.S.
Update: Judge approves VeraSun's rare bankruptcy financing
End the ethanol subsidy now, or we'll see more ethanol companies collapse, as it's an artificial, propped up commodity, not a real one.
Commodities: Jim Rogers and Long Term Outlook
Commodity investors must have long term outlook says Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers has been known for saying he's the worst trader there is, and a terrible market timer.
The reason behind why he says it? We shouldn't think of ourselves or act like traders or market timers. History has proven that buying at low prices and holding on for the long haul far outperforms trying to time or trade the markets.
Warren Buffett of course also holds to and lives by this financial philosophy.
Now as far as the worldwide financial crisis, Rogers asserts that it's far from over yet, and by the time it's through, it'll be the worst economic crisis since World War II. The reasons why are the extraordinary excesses that created the crisis in the first place.
He adds that the government is making the usual mistake of interfering, and like the Great Depression in the United States, it'll make things worse, and elongate the pain.
Those who understand or have studied the Great Depression, know that there wouldn't have been one if the government hadn't interfered, as it prolonged it for many years, instead of the short time it would have worked itself out.
This happens because governments can't resist the temptation to make themselves look like saviors to the people, making it look like they're taking steps to alleviate their pain. The truth is the government causes much more pain, and this will happen again with the most recent, misguided bailout offered.
What underlies the mistake is the assumption the government should keep people from experiencing any pain. That's as stupid as those people who spoil and, in reality, abuse their children by keeping them from all difficulties in life.
As for Rogers, he continues to reiterate his commitment to investing primarily in agriculture, as he sees a growing demand that will continue to be a challenge to meet.
Concerning individual investors, Rogers adds that they should invest in sectors or companies they have a solid knowledge of. Nobody will know about them better than you if you do your homework.
The most successful commodities investors will continue to be those that do it with the long term in mind.
Jim Rogers has been known for saying he's the worst trader there is, and a terrible market timer.
The reason behind why he says it? We shouldn't think of ourselves or act like traders or market timers. History has proven that buying at low prices and holding on for the long haul far outperforms trying to time or trade the markets.
Warren Buffett of course also holds to and lives by this financial philosophy.
Now as far as the worldwide financial crisis, Rogers asserts that it's far from over yet, and by the time it's through, it'll be the worst economic crisis since World War II. The reasons why are the extraordinary excesses that created the crisis in the first place.
He adds that the government is making the usual mistake of interfering, and like the Great Depression in the United States, it'll make things worse, and elongate the pain.
Those who understand or have studied the Great Depression, know that there wouldn't have been one if the government hadn't interfered, as it prolonged it for many years, instead of the short time it would have worked itself out.
This happens because governments can't resist the temptation to make themselves look like saviors to the people, making it look like they're taking steps to alleviate their pain. The truth is the government causes much more pain, and this will happen again with the most recent, misguided bailout offered.
What underlies the mistake is the assumption the government should keep people from experiencing any pain. That's as stupid as those people who spoil and, in reality, abuse their children by keeping them from all difficulties in life.
As for Rogers, he continues to reiterate his commitment to investing primarily in agriculture, as he sees a growing demand that will continue to be a challenge to meet.
Concerning individual investors, Rogers adds that they should invest in sectors or companies they have a solid knowledge of. Nobody will know about them better than you if you do your homework.
The most successful commodities investors will continue to be those that do it with the long term in mind.
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