Showing posts with label Coal Demand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coal Demand. Show all posts

Friday, February 15, 2013

Why Coal Demand is Falling in America

Besides the obvious attack by the government on the coal industry, with regulations resulting in high operational cost designed to cripple coal in America, there are some other reasons why coal has been diminishing in the midst of a surge in coal demand outside of America.

In states like Kentucky and West Virginia, for example, easily accessed coal has already been mined, resulting in higher costs to mine the thinner deposits.

The other major challenge is the discovery and supply of natural gas in America, which has resulted in cheaper energy, putting pressure on coal as a fuel source in the United States.

One area that coal should continue to do very well in is high-grade metallurgical coal, which is used to produce steel. This won't save the coal industry in America, but it will keep some regions of the country in good condition.

Another key element is the lack of export terminals to meet the growing demand of coal in every other country in the world outside of the United States. At this time there are projects in the works to build five coal export terminals in Washington and Oregon to help meet that growing need. Most coal companies benefiting from that will be producing in the western part of the U.S. It is uncertain as to how many of those will be built and how long it'll take to bring them to operational status.

Projections by the International Energy Agency show that coal demand will jump by 1.2 billion tons over the next several years, which should make it the No. 1 global fuel source at that time.

So while coal demand is falling in America, every other country on the face of the planet that uses coal has been increasing it as an energy source for their needs.

China is the driving force behind coal demand, with India boosting its coal usage as well. For the United States, at this time Europe is the biggest importer of coal from the country.

If this continues for years into the future, which it undoubtedly will, coal demand in America could rise again, but it'll take many years before that happens. For now, investors should look for coal companies positioned to primarily serve the Chinese market, as Chinese demand accounts for half or more of all coal demand in the world as of this writing.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Peabody (NYSE:BTU), Consol (NYSE:CNX), Yanzhou (NYSE:YZC) Rally, Market Ignores Mixed Media Reports

Coal mining stocks made a nice move Friday, along with other energy stocks, as major coal companies like Consol Energy (NYSE:CNX), Yanzhou Coal Mining (NYSE:YZC) and Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) ended all up, and smaller coal miners such as International Coal Group (NYSE:ICO), Puda Coal (AMEX:PUDA) and Westmoreland Coal (AMEX:WLB) all closed up five percent or more.

The Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE:KOL) also made a big move, closing at $39.57, gaining $0.78, or 2.01 percent.

The usual announcement by some government around the world, in this case, South Africa, came announcing they're going to cut back on coal usage, but the fact remains coal is still a major part of generating electricity around the world, and that isn't going to change any time soon, in spite of assertions to the contrary.

Analysts like Walter Energy Walter Energy (NYSE:WLT) among all the coal miners, which has soared over the last three months, closing up Friday at $85.67, gaining $4.26, or 5.23 percent.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Lowers Consol Energy (NYES:CNX) Estimate, Price Target

Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) cut back its earnings estimate for Consol Energy (NYES:CNX), while also lowering their price target on the company to $50.

Consol Energy, which produces natural gas and coal, was cut because of the abundant supply of natural gas which will put pressure on prices and margins.

The economy is also playing a major factor, as coal demand could slide as consumers continue to use less energy to help with their bills.

Bank of America maintained their "Buy" rating on the energy company, even with the lowered outlook.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) Sales Up 40 Percent, Surpasses Expectations

Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) is the latest of the commodity companies to report great results for the second quarter, as they turned things around from a loss last year to solid earnings in the second quarter.

The company was led by a 40 percent surge in sales, and said they expect that to continue on for the remainder of the year. They also raised their earnings guidance on the lower end by 10 cents.

Earnings for the second quarter came in at $66.2 million, or 41 cents a share. Last year Arch lost $15.1 million, or 11 cents a share, as sales went in the other direction, dropping 20 percent.

Revenue for the quarter increased to $764.3 million, against last year's $554.6 million. Analysts had been looking for revenue of $765.4 million, and earnings of 25 cents a share.

Full-year earnings guidance was from $1.10 a share, an increase of 10 cents over the $1 a share estimate from April, to $1.40 a share, excluding charges.

Production guidance remains the same, with estimates of 147 million to 155 million tons for the year. That doesn't include coal which will be acquired from third parties.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Teck (NYSE:TCK) CEO Says Metal Demand Consistent

Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) (TSE:TCK-B) CEO Don Lindsay said at the RBC Global Mining and Materials Conference in Toronto that even though metal prices have fallen recently, demand has continued to remain steady.

"We don't think there's been any change in fundamental demand," said Lindsay.

I find that assertion hard to believe because of the China inflation problems coming from their overheated urban property market, Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and emerging news the U.S. recovery really isn't one, although many of us already knew that.

With all this in mind, then where is the demand coming from?

Now we must take into consideration when we say China is battling inflation and the consequences will be less metal imports, that doesn't mean there won't be any imports, just less than expected from an economy that had been growing at about a 12 percent rate.

Add that together with the economic conditions in America and Europe though, and the combination makes a huge dent in raw material and metals demand, and it's hard to believe that hasn't affected Teck Resources in any way.

Copper prices alone reveal lowering starts of new homes and commercial properties; the reason why prices have plunged so much over the last month and a half. Since mid-April copper prices have declined by over 20 percent.

If demand has remained steady as Lindsay asserts, then what is driving down the prices of copper?

My problem with the comments made by Lindsay are in the short- and mid-term. I have no doubt in the long-term there will be a rebound, but to say demand has remained steady, implying there has been no decline, is pushing the limits on the realities of the market.

Lindsay believes there will be tight copper and coal markets over the next several years, and that will help Teck.

That may or may not be accurate, but what that means over the next couple of years is the question, and in that regard his assertions aren't convincing to me, but we'll see with the next quarterly report if they line up with the way the company is actually performing.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) Upgraded by Dahlman Rose

Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) was upgraded by Dahlman Rose today from "Hold" to Buy," along with competitor Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE:ACI).

Yesterday FBR Capital Markets maintained its outperform rating on Arch as well.

Although some say it's from a potential rebound in coal demand, which is probably part of it, the companies above are also noted for strong safety records and safety measures, which gives them a much higher degree of predictability than others in the industry, or at least that's how they're increasingly being perceived by investors.

Adding the two elements together gives them a strong competitive advantage if they can continue on as they are, along with producing a lot of coal to meet the growing demand, assuming that the coal demand is sustainable.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) Sees Some Metal Demand Doubling in 15 Years

Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) CEO Tom Albanese commented at an annual meeting for the company that metals like aluminum, copper and iron ore will increase in demand by twice what they are today in the next 15 years.

Primary drivers of demand, according to Albanese, will be urbanization and industrialization. Those two trends obviously relate to emerging markets, especially China and India, which will continue to grow exponentially during that time, although probably at a couple percentage points down from their growth today.

Albanese also likes the energy sector, where coal and uranium will continue to be in high demand.

“These trends will require a significant response from producers,” Albanese said.

Rio Tinto is positioned strongly to be a major player in these important natural resources, with the major caveat being the macro-economic picture emerging and Europe and inflation in China. These could lower demand for raw materials, and the European sovereign debt crisis could drag us into an even worse recession than we're just starting to recover from.

Even so, it's not a matter of if these raw materials will increase in demand, but when. The 15-year estimate is a good one to me, as it takes into accounts the inevitable swing in demand that accompanies slow economic times, and even if things to get much worse for several years, ultimately they're recover, and mining companies like Rio Tinto should participate in the resultant rise in prices from the growing demand.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) Opening Montana Office

Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) recently announced they'll opening an office in Billings, Montana, as they prepare to work the Otter Creek tracts in the state they recently won the bid for with an $85.8 million offer.

The state of Montana released the rights to Arch Coal to mine the tracts, which comprise 8,300 acres.

Estimates are the company now controls approximately 1.5 billion tons of coal in the Otter Creek area.

William "Mike" Rowlands, who will oversee the development as he was named director of the project, said this, "We are looking forward to building a world-class mining operation in Montana that reflects Arch's core values of excellence in safety and environmental stewardship."

Rowlands will reportedly work with the area communities, railroads and government agencies as the major face of Arch Coal in Montana.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Xstrata (LSE:XTA) Led by Copper and Coal

Xstrata (LSE:XTA) announced today that production for the first quarter was up, led by copper and coal.

Copper and coal is expected to account for just under 75 percent of Xstrata's earnings in 2010, with copper leading the way with 38 percent, and coal just behind it at 36 percent.

For the first quarter, copper production rose by 3 percent, while coal production increased by 9 percent, mostly on solid production in Australia.

Analysts are looking for Xstrata's earnings to surge 93 percent as share on a continual rise in commodity prices.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Peabody (NYSE:BTU) Increases Macarthur Coal Bid

American coal company Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), has increased its offer for Macarthur Coal by 14 percent, raising it to A$16 a share, up from the most recent A$14 a share bid, and the original A$13 a share bid made by Peabody. That would bring the total offer to A$4.1-billion ($3.8 billion)if it goes forward and is approved.

Peabody is competing with an Australian company, New Hope, for control of Macarthur, and has a leg up on the company at this stage because the board of Macarthur likes their offer far better than the New Hope offer of A$14,5 a share.

Macarthur's board has recommended shareholders reject the New Hope offer as it now stands, possibly paving the way for acceptance of the Peabody offer.

Marcarthur is the leading global exporter of pulverized coal, which is in high demand from China.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) Increasing Coal Production by 50 Percent in 5 Years

Teck Resources Coal Production

Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) has stated it wants to increase its coal production by 50 percent within five years as demand for coking coal skyrockets.

This is probably a realistic goal if it's predicated upon China's hunger for coking coal, as they can't get enough of it to feed their needs, even after they increased coal imports by 500 percent last year.

In 2010 expectations are China will import over 30 million tons of coal this year, as their domestic supply can't keep up with their demand from steel mills.

Steel production is projected to continue to increase in China for some time, and that will guarantee demand for coking coal will increase with it.

Teck Resources will increase revenue and profits with it if they can meet their coal production goals.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Downgrades Utilities

Goldman Sachs Downgrades Utilities

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analyst Michael Lapides downgraded the utility sector in general from "Attractive" to "Neutral."

Lapides has changed his tune on this one, saying his previous upgrade of utilities was premature, especially since prices of natural gas are uncertain going forward.

Strangely, Lapides expected prices to increase based on getting rid of inexpensive electrical costs by pressuring coal plants to taken offline, as well as what I would call draconian environmental regulations which would strangle poor people who will struggle to make it if that were to happen.

So much for wishful thinking and activist grading, which doesn't belong among legitimate analysts.

The difficult economy shows why inexpensive energy is vital for the majority of people who would otherwise be unable to pay their bills.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca:UNG) Down on Oil Prices Spiking

United States Natural Gas Down

Increasing oil prices has put some downward pressure on natural gas, and United States Natural Gas (NYSEArca:UNG) has responded in kind, dropping along with the move - at least for now.

Others have been heartened by the proposal by Obama to switch coal-burning power plants to natural gas. There will be a lot of opposition to that, and it's not clear whether that would pass or not.

Even if it did, growth for coal would still continue as producers are targeting emerging and developing markets, where they see most of their growth happening, along with most commodities.

Either way, natural gas will increase in use, and long term, that will be good news for the United States Natural Gas Fund.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK) Upgraded to Buy

Teck Resources Upgraded to Buy

Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK) was upgraded to buy from hold by analyst Orest Wowkodaw of Canaccord Adams, primarily based on short-term increases in coking coal prices, and the assumption copper prices will continue to rise.

The share price target was moved from $43 to $50 also for the same reasons.

Most of this was based on reports Japanese steelmakers agreed to pay a price increase of 55 percent for coking coal from April to June.

Operational concerns were outweighed by the positive outlook on price increases for Teck Resources.

Teck Resources Upgraded to Buy

Monday, March 8, 2010

Coals Future Looks Great

The future of coal

Even though it has become politically correct to malign coal, and media loves to cover its so-called "clean" energy alternatives, which are anything but real alternatives, coal will continue to be a major force in generating electricity for decades to come.

The thing to understand with coal, is even if it's not as important in western countries, in general it's going to be a ongoing force around the world for emerging and developing nations for a long time, as they hunger for sources of energy that are affordable and minimally meet their needs.

So don't believe the majority of what you read in the media about the demise of coal. It's not even close to going away or becoming irrelevant, and it is well worth the time to check out the numerous companies still having a major presence with coal, as demand will only increase and not decrease, no matter what the mainstream media tries to convince you of.

The future of coal

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Rand Paul on Kentucky Coal

Rand Paul on Coal

Responding to a smear campaign from his fading political opponent, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, Rand Paul defended himself against accusations from Grayson that he was not a friend of the coal mining industry, which is a strong part of the economy of eastern Kentucky.

In a TV interview, Paul responded to the Grayson ads saying, "I'm against Cap and Trade. I'm for reigning in the EPA because I think they're limiting the permit process. I'm for allowing mountain top removal of coal. That doesn't sound like I'm very anti-coal, and yet he takes a quote out of context from two years before, where I say that there are cleaner forms of energy that we will eventually evolve to. That doesn't mean I'm against coal."

Paul also went on the offensive, showing a video of Grayson supporting bringing in nuclear powered plants after the coal-fired plants are taken out of the picture.

Rand Paul on Coal

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP) Japan Coal Prices

BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP) (NYSE:BHP) Japan Coal Prices

A proposal from BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP) to Japanese steelmakers to increase the price of coking coal provided by the company by 55 percent was greeted with luke warm response from the Japanese, to say the least.

BHP has held its coking coal prices down over the last couple of years, probably the reason it through out such hig percentage increase in prices to test the Japanese response. It also could be an attempt to secure higher prices than they hoped for by presenting such a large increase in the first place.

The Japanese have reportedly rejected the prices asked for, and BHP will now start to negotiate in earnest concerning the prices. This was probably BHP telling the Japanese they'll have to pay a lot more this year for the coking coal.

BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP) (NYSE:BHP) Japan Coal Prices

Monday, February 8, 2010

Expecting $6 Billion Profits Rio Tinto (LON:RIO)

Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) Profits

Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) will release its annual report on Thursday, and analysts are expecting the company to report $6 billion in profits for the year.

Much of that is from the strong demand for iron ore and coal which has driven up prices over the last year. This year looks to be another big one for iron ore, as even China's pressure couldn't keep their domestic demand from causing their companies to buy at higher prices then the central government wanted.

Some will probably take the news negative as profits in 2008 were a much heftier $10.3 billion, a 40 percent better performance than 2009, assuming the numbers hold.

There are expectations that Rio may increase their dividend in order to keep their 48 year streak alive for not reducing the dividend over that time, as they didn't offer one in the first half of 2009.

Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) Profits

Friday, December 18, 2009

Coal Import Demand to Rise

Coal Demand and Supply

For producers of seaborne thermal coal, it looks like there will be a strong demand while supply looks like it'll be challenged to keep up with it.

India itself is expected to import about 50 million metric tons of coal in 2009, with that increasing to 60 million metric tons in 2010. That's up from 28 percent from coal imports by India in 2008 (50 million metric tons).

This is just the tip of the iceberg for India coal imports though, as they could reach as high as 200 metric tons by 2014. This should put some upward pressure on coal prices as supply struggles to catch up.

Coal Demand and Supply