Showing posts with label Japanese Yen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japanese Yen. Show all posts

Monday, February 18, 2013

G-20: No Currency War, Just More Stimulus

I don't know if I've ever heard such a blatant contradiction as the response of G-20 finance ministers to the idea of there being a currency war going on.

The silly comment by the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, where she said this: "There's been lots of talk of currency wars, and we have not seen any such thing as a currency war," underscores the lack of respect for those who understand what's going on with money policy around the world and the results the stimulus actions produce.

Even the idea of saying nothing to or about Japan's money policy, where the yen has plunged against the U.S. dollar by 21 percent since the middle of November, 2012, reinforces the fact there is a currency war going on.

After all, if the G-20 publicly spanked Japan, they would have to answer as to why they're encouraging more stimulus at this time.

Lagarde all but said there is sure to be more monetary easing in the euro zone, based upon the interest rates in the region are higher than those of competitors like Japan, U.K., and the United States. But there is no currency war going on. No sir.

There have been references to the dishonest statement from the G-7 last week where it attempted to make a difference between a country specifically focusing on a specific currency level and monetary easing in order to boost domestic economies.

Why is that a difference? It isn't. It's saying the same thing using different terminology.

How come they're attempting to make this type of murky but dishonest comparison? You can be sure more stimulus is on the way in response to the ongoing stimulus or money printing, and that means there is a currency war between countries attempting to be sure their exports are competitive with other countries.

If you were to believe the official explanations, the results as to the behavior of the currencies against one another will be the same, but we just aren't going to call it a currency war because it would make the central banks appear to be what they are - government tools being used as economic weapons of mass destruction.

And if you're wondering which country it is that instigated this war, it's the United States as it continues to create money out of thin air at unprecedented rates.

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Shorting Yen Making Millions for Investors

Investors shorting the yen since November when the Bank of Japan was pressured to debase the currency, have made millions on the move, with currency expert George Soros generating a cool $1 billion from the play.

Other major players generating big gains from the debasing of the yer were David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Daniel Loeb's Third Point LLC and Kyle Bass's Hayman Capital Management LP.

Since the announcement in November of retaliation against the U.S. dollar by the Japanese for the ongoing policy of the Federal Reserve of endless quantitative easing, the yen has dropped 20 percent. Expectations are it still has room to fall.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

U.S. Started Currency War, Will it Continue it?

Everyone is pointing to Japan as the culprit in the currency wars, but the truth is the U.S. has escalated the war by refusing to rein in spending and continuing to print money at a rate that continues to push the value of the U.S. dollar down, which pressures exports in other countries.

Consequently, other nations, if they don't want their exports and own economies crushed, must respond with their own money-printing scheme in order to keep their currencies from rising too high against the U.S. dollar.

The silly and nonsensical statement coming out of the G7 nations caused even more problems, as it said the monetary policies promoted wouldn't be focused on the debasing of currencies. That's an outright lie, as printing money by definition is the debasing of currencies. Period.

Unless the nations agree to stop printing money and start to really cut back on government spending, the currency wars will continue on, and currencies will continue to fall in value, as the U.S. dollar has to the tune of over 95 percent since the inception of the Federal Reserve 100 years ago.

Counting on most people - including financial and economic writers - to not understand currencies, the G7 made the laughable assertion it was committed to exchange rates driven by market forces. Again, if that was the case, they would stop printing money and shrink the size of government.

Anyone who thinks this is being done allows themselves to be lied to because exchange rates have been manipulated by central banking policies for decades. It's the ramping up of printing to gigantic levels that has forced the issue out into the open; not the decision by Japan to print more yen.

The ECB has been attempting to shrink its balance sheet, with banks paying back cheap money printed by the central bank in 2012. If the U.S. and Japan continue to expand their money supply, the euro will undoubtedly rise against the two currencies, which will result in the region having to respond with an effort to weaken the euro.

It's improbable Japan will stop its strategy (although it may publicly assert it does), so a full-blown currency war involving numerous nations could expand. The question is when will the U.S. stop its part in the wars and cut back on its outrageous printing of money. Until that happens, we'll see this continue to be an issue; one that will worsen before it gets better.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Japan Approves 20 Trillion Yen Stimulus

Following the faltering and failing Keynesian practices of America and Europe, Japan announced it has approved yet another stimulus package, this one valued at over 20 trillion yen ($224 billion).

New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the goal of the stimulus is to boost annual economic growth in Japan by two percent. He also wants to add 600,000 new jobs in the process.

The usual but tired idea of government infrastructure projects as the method to grow the Japanese economy our of its ongoing recession.

Most of the money will allegedly be used in relationship to the recent tsunami and earthquake of 2011, where reconstructing the areas hit the hardest by it will be the priority.

In reality this has a lot to do with the battle of central banks, where the decision by the Federal Reserve to have open-ended stimulus has caused other competing nations to respond in kind so their currencies don't rise too high against the U.S. dollar.

That means they don't want exports to plunge, which would hurt the domestic markets of Japan and other nations.

The new prime minister, who also served in that capacity in 2006-2007, told the central bank of Japan to take whatever steps are necessary to raise the inflation rate to two percent.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Dollar USD/JPY Almost at Monthly High against Yen

Ongoing weak economic data from the United States and concern the Japanese may intervene against the U.S. dollar, has the greenback moving up close to a monthly high against the yen.

Trading was slow Friday for the dollar versus the yen, as the range for the dollar shrank, rising close to 86 yen.

Fears the Bank of Japan may intervene if the dollar moved to about 85 yen kept the trading levels down.

Before the recent intervention of Japan, the dollar had dropped below 83, a 15-year low. Since then the dollar has enjoyed it best week since the latter part of April, gaining 1.8 percent.

The Bank of Japan may have spent about $20.98 billion to strengthen the dollar, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Sees Yen Over US Dollar, Euro

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) likes the yen against the euro and US dollar, and raised its forecast for the Japanese currency to 90 against the dollar in 2010, and 104 from 112 against the euro by the end of 2010.

“We think concerns about slower global growth are likely to constrain risk appetite for the time being, with a likelihood of temporary yen gains on risk aversion,” BAC strategists wrote in the report.

The yen is up against the major 16 currencies in 2010, gaining 17 percent already against the euro this year.

For the third quarter Bank of America's Merrill Lynch increased forecasts for the yen against the US dollar from 94 to 89, and by the end of 2011, projects it to be 97 against the dollar.

By the end of 2011 they look for the Japanese currency to by at 107 against the euro.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Greek Debt Crisis Weighs on Market

The Greek debt crisis continues to be a pull on the markets, and depending on the particular sector pushes it up or pulls it down.

We're in for a long ride with this one because there's no end in site as to what is going to pan out with the troubled country, one way or another.

What that does is keep an element of uncertainty in the market, which continues to remind investors we're far from the economic crisis being over, and we're not into any type of sustainable recovery.

For the U.S. dollar, it's not a sign that it has a lot of confidence in it, just that in contrast to other currencies, it looks good. The yen also has that as part of its attraction to investors.

Gold should continue to move up as more people gravitate toward it for safety and begin to think of it as an alternative currency.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Jim Rogers: Commodity Bull Market Continues

Jim Rogers on Commodities

Jim Rogers reiterated again recently that the commodity bull market will continue on its run, as demand for raw materials continues to rise and supply fights a losing battle to keep up with it.

Rogers added that gold investors should hold on to their positions in the metal, as he maintains it'll continue to rise on through the next decade.

While he acknowledges China and India have huge markets that will continue to grow, they alone cannot carry the rest of the world on its economic shoulders, and other countries will need to grow if we're to eventually experience a sustainable recovery ... and I would add, whenever that recovery actually begins.

Gold soared to a 3-month high Wednesday, as ongoing concerns over the Greece debacle continue, and liquidity seems to be the problem again, as consumers and others pull their money out, with banks doing their repo thing with Greek banks.

Although the dollar and yen will continue to be thought of in terms of places of safety, gold is becoming more and more to be thought of as an alternative currency which is far safer than any other in the world.

The U.S. dollar isn't really thought of as safe, just the lesser of evils between all paper currencies.

Jim Rogers on Commodities

Monday, April 5, 2010

Citigroup (NYSE:C): Weak Yen Produces Weak Bond Futures

Japan Bond Futures

Citigroup (NYSE:C) analysts say, as the yen weakens in Japan, it has fueled speculation it'll help the exporters earnings, driving investors from the relative safety of bonds or debt to the equities market.

It is expected that bond futures will continue to drop, although that will depend on how stocks perform of course.

Most think bonds will continue testing lower prices before entering into a time of fluctuation, according to analyst Kazuhiko Sano of Citigroup Global Markets Japan.

Today Japan’s Finance Ministry will be selling $23.3 billion in 10-year bonds. It is thought the primary dealers could reduce their exposure to bonds before they offer them to investors.

Japan Bond Futures

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Says Stronger Dollar

Based on the report from the Labor Department U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in March, Wells Fargo's (NYSE:WFC) head of currency strategy Nick Bennenbroek said a “A strong jobs report means a stronger dollar against most currencies."

The dollar did gain against the strong yen to its highest level in seven months.

Bennenbroek adds the U.S. dollar could increase to 100 yen within six months.

Some believe this increases the chance of the Federal Reserve increasing the interest rates before the end of 2010.

Stronger U.S. Dollar

Friday, March 26, 2010

Jim Rogers: Chinese Yuan to Explode in Value

Jim Rogers, China and Yuan

In a recent interview Jim Rogers said the Chinese yuan will explode in value over the next several decades, possibly quadrupling during that period of time against the U.S. dollar.

He compared it with the Japanese yen and how it went up about 400 percent over the last several decades against the greenback.

While Rogers believes the yuan should be allowed to float, he thinks it would be better for the yuan, but the idea of designating the Chinese as a currency manipulator publicly wouldn't help.

Rogers added the Chinese know they'll have to eventually allow their currency to float. It's just a matter of the right timing of it from the Chinese point of view.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Henry Paulson Announcement Sends Investors Fleeing to Safety

With traders and investors in a risk-adverse mode, anything they're unsure of sends running for safety and cover, and it was no different today.

When U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) would now be adding those in the nonbanking sector to their focus, investors fleed to the U.S. dollar and yen for protection.

The underlying assumption being made was things may not be as fixable through TARP than they orginally thought, and unexpected problems may be hindering the effort.

Right after Paulson's remarks went across the news wires, the stampede to the yen and U.S. dollar began.

The dollar and yen remain the investment of choice for those seeking safety, although the yen is getting more activity and holding strong, as the dollar fell Wednesday to 94.61 yen from 97.60.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Commodities: Jim Rogers - In the Footsteps of Japan

Jim Rogers - America Following in Footsteps of Japanese Bailout Mistake

On CNBC's Squak Box Wednesday, Jim Rogers reiterated his call for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to resign for artificially undergirding poor performing "zombie banks" that should have been allowed to fail.

Citing the debacle of the Japanese government 18 years ago when they made the same mistake, Rogers said their stock market is still 75 to 80 percent lower than it was then.

The Japanese government decided at that time they weren't going to let poorly run banks fail, and they've reaped the consequences of those actions ever since. That could very well be the fate of the U.S. in the years to come.

For now, along with the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, Jim Rogers is continuing to invest in agriculture, and also other strong performers like Asian water treatment companies.

As Rogers points out, we shouldn't go in the failed footsteps that have kept Japan in a state of no growth for decades.

Other Jim Rogers Articles:

Jim Rogers: We're Facing an "Inflation Holocaust"

Jim Rogers: History Reveals Bailouts do more Harm than Good

Jim Rogers: Government Bailout a Huge Mistake

Jim Rogers: People Don't Understand Commodities

Jim Rogers Says Commodities Should Come Back Strongly

Friday, October 10, 2008

Commodities: Where Jim Rogers is Putting His Money

The commodity Jim Rogers considers important: currencies

Last post we talked about Jim Rogers' view on the interference by governments which will inevitably lead to inflation. In this case Rogers is calling it an "inflation holocaust."

So what is Jim Rogers doing at this time to make some money? He's continuing with a couple of his favorite currencies. Rogers is investing his large amount of cash in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. He also said he's continuing to invest in agricultural products.


[Most Recent Exchange Rate from www.kitco.com]


Agricultural products have also participated in the reason plunge in commodities, as demand across the world has fallen because of economic concerns and some of the high prices in connection with the former demand.


[Most Recent Exchange Rate from www.kitco.com]


This will probably change around fairly soon as no matter what happens with metals and other commodities unrelated to gold or food, agricultural products, as well as gold, will continue to rise in price in the months ahead, as inflation rises in response to the misguided attempts by the U.S. government and others around the globe that continue to interfere with the markets.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Major Currency Updates around the web


The U.S. dollar continues to be all over the place against currencies, but continues to weaken against the majors. In Latin America it did find some strength today, as it gained against a number of currencies from south of the border.


Here's some links to major currency stories today:

Forex - US Dollar Edges Higher Versus Latin American Currencies

The US dollar was relatively strong against its Latin American counterparts on Tuesday's New York deals. The dollar recovered from an initial pull back against the Latin American majors during afternoon deals today.

If you want to know where commodity prices are going, you can dive down the rabbit hole of raw-materials supply and demand, trying to figure out everything from how the weather in Saskatchewan will affect wheat crops to what the surging Indian economy will do to demand for gold.

Or, you can just watch the currency market.

The central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), has built up a record $13-billion stock of foreign exchange outside its official foreign reserves as of end-January, up $2.3 billion from the end-December level, according to its official data.


Mexico's peso softened against the dollar Tuesday as local stocks fell on profit taking following big gains the previous session.

The peso was quoted in Mexico City as closing at MXN10.7230, compared with MXN10.6940 at the opening and MXN10.7075 at Monday's close.

The yen rose on Tuesday as weaker global equities encouraged investors to unwind carry trades, while the euro paused against the dollar after European officials voiced concerns about its latest rally.

The dollar slipped against the euro Tuesday in the face of fresh inflation fears in the eurozone and a call by the US Federal Reserve chief for tough action to stem US mortgage foreclosures.

The euro edged higher against the dollar as the US currency's recovery overnight began to lose momentum.

U.S. Dollar Continues to Plunge Against Japanese, European and Canadian Currencies

The U.S. dollar continues to fall against major currencies, as it is flirting with its all-time low against the euro. For the euro, the dollar was only able to buy $1.5208. For the British pound, it increased a little to $1.9859, up from $1.9847.

In late trading in New York, it also fell against the Canadian dollar, going to 1.0042, down from Monday's 1.0074 cents.

The Japanese yen also increased against the U.S. dollar, climbing to 103.14, up from 103.96. Japan's leadership is getting more concerned about the weakening dollar, as it has fallen by over 7 percent in 2008 already. They're concerned that their exports could suffer if it continues at this "abnormally rapid" rate.

This of course isn't bad news for all businesses in the U.S., as manufacturing will benefit from the weakened dollar, as well as tourist-related businesses that attract a lot of international visitors. The question there is if the weakening domestic tourist market will be made up for by foreign tourists. That has yet to be answered.

As far as the Canadian dollar, the Canadian bank cut borrowing rates by a half point; the first time since November 2001. They've indicated more cuts may be on the way in April.

For the Australian dollar, things are going the other way, as they continue to battle inflationary pressures, and continue to raise their interest rates, today increasing it by a quarter point, which now stands at 7.25 percent.