Droughts in the United States and Europe are generating concerns over the supply of grains around the world, and now in Russia and India reports are parts of those countries are also experiencing drought conditions, adding to the concerns of what the yields will end up being for 2012.
On July 20, Russia’s Federal Hydrometeorological Center said the overall grain expected to be produced for the year will come in at only about 80 million tons, plunging from the estimated 94 million tons.
India has also been hindered in its important rice, lentils and oilseeds markets, where sowing of those crops have been delayed because of much less rain than normal.
Parts of Western Australia have experienced dryer weather than normal from April to June, with dry weather surging in July. All of that points to the probability of higher prices going forward.
Countries that are on target for corn production to rise this year are China, Canada, Mexico and Argentina, according to the USDA.
Even with the horrible conditions in the U.S. corn production could still rise to one of the best years in history, based on the enormous number of acres planted. At this time estimates are for 329.5 tons for 2012.
That could easily change if certain parts of the country don't get rain soon. Those are the areas where pollination has yet to set. Once that happens, it won't matter how much rain comes.
Showing posts with label Corn Production. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Corn Production. Show all posts
Monday, July 23, 2012
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Agrium (AGU), Potash (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Soar on Lower WASDE Estimates
Agrium (AGU), Potash (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) all surged today after the release of estimates from WASDE showed corn yields area significantly lower than their recent estimate.
UBS (NYSE:UBS) said they are maintaining their "Buy" rating on Agrium Inc. also citing WASDE estimates. Agrium had the price target raised from $82 to $95.
"WASDE released its latest agriculture estimates this morning (Monday) which we believe indicate an improving agricultural market. Specifically, projected corn production for 2010/11 is down with the projected national corn yield of 155.8 bushels/acre significantly below the previous projection of 162.5 bushels/acre ... We have revised our 2011/2012 EPS estimates from $6.70/6.57 to $6.92/6.60 to reflect stronger fertilizer pricing and fundamentals," said UBS.
Agrium closed Monday at $83, gaining $1.92, or 2.37 percent. Mosaic ended the session at $66.32, an rising $1.02, or 1.55 percent. Potash continues its climb, closing the day at $147.48, an increase of $1.68, or 1.15 percent.
UBS (NYSE:UBS) said they are maintaining their "Buy" rating on Agrium Inc. also citing WASDE estimates. Agrium had the price target raised from $82 to $95.
"WASDE released its latest agriculture estimates this morning (Monday) which we believe indicate an improving agricultural market. Specifically, projected corn production for 2010/11 is down with the projected national corn yield of 155.8 bushels/acre significantly below the previous projection of 162.5 bushels/acre ... We have revised our 2011/2012 EPS estimates from $6.70/6.57 to $6.92/6.60 to reflect stronger fertilizer pricing and fundamentals," said UBS.
Agrium closed Monday at $83, gaining $1.92, or 2.37 percent. Mosaic ended the session at $66.32, an rising $1.02, or 1.55 percent. Potash continues its climb, closing the day at $147.48, an increase of $1.68, or 1.15 percent.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Corn Prices Continue to Fall on Good Weather Conditions
Corn prices continue to fall as cooler and wetter weather continues to hit the Midwest of the United States.
Hot, dry weather had been pushing prices of corn up on concerns there wouldn't be a weather change, but now that it has come, prices will go back to where they should be at in light of the potential harvest.
Wheat and soybeans also continue to fall, with wheat falling on the reality it won't be needed for feed substitute now that corn production looks better.
Corn futures for December delivery dropped 5.5 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $3.885 a bushel at 10:00 AM on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Forecasts for cool and wet weather continue on for the next several days, giving the region what it should need to generate a bountiful corn harvest.
Hot, dry weather had been pushing prices of corn up on concerns there wouldn't be a weather change, but now that it has come, prices will go back to where they should be at in light of the potential harvest.
Wheat and soybeans also continue to fall, with wheat falling on the reality it won't be needed for feed substitute now that corn production looks better.
Corn futures for December delivery dropped 5.5 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $3.885 a bushel at 10:00 AM on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Forecasts for cool and wet weather continue on for the next several days, giving the region what it should need to generate a bountiful corn harvest.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Corn Futures Down on Dollar, Inventory
Corn Futures, Dollar, Corn Inventory
Corn futures dropped again as the stronger U.S. dollar made investments and exports unattractive, and the significant global corn inventory has left no base to work from.
As with wheat, as mentioned in my last post, when the prices of grains surged in 2008, farmers seeded huge amounts of wheat, corn, soybeans and rice, which all but assured there would be downward pressure on grain prices in the years ahead.
I'm not sure why the farmers continue to do this, or if they're being told wrongly, but farmers need to understand that if they put huge seedings of crops in the year after a big price increase, they can be sure huge numbers of farmers around the world will do the same.
While there is always the possibility of weather having a devastating impact on some crops, as last year showed, there was so much grain on the market that even when their were droughts or other weather problems, there was so much available it didn't have much of an impact.
With corn this is the story, and will continue to be a bearish story until some farmers drop planting it based on past performance.
Eventually there will be major demand around the world for food, but we are far from that with grains at this time, even though analysts and wealthy investors like Jim Rogers tout food and agriculture in general as a great future investment.
It will be all of that, but when farmers plant far more than global demand warrants, we're always going see downward pressure on corn futures and other grains until it corrects itself.
Corn Futures, Dollar, Corn Inventory
Corn futures dropped again as the stronger U.S. dollar made investments and exports unattractive, and the significant global corn inventory has left no base to work from.
As with wheat, as mentioned in my last post, when the prices of grains surged in 2008, farmers seeded huge amounts of wheat, corn, soybeans and rice, which all but assured there would be downward pressure on grain prices in the years ahead.
I'm not sure why the farmers continue to do this, or if they're being told wrongly, but farmers need to understand that if they put huge seedings of crops in the year after a big price increase, they can be sure huge numbers of farmers around the world will do the same.
While there is always the possibility of weather having a devastating impact on some crops, as last year showed, there was so much grain on the market that even when their were droughts or other weather problems, there was so much available it didn't have much of an impact.
With corn this is the story, and will continue to be a bearish story until some farmers drop planting it based on past performance.
Eventually there will be major demand around the world for food, but we are far from that with grains at this time, even though analysts and wealthy investors like Jim Rogers tout food and agriculture in general as a great future investment.
It will be all of that, but when farmers plant far more than global demand warrants, we're always going see downward pressure on corn futures and other grains until it corrects itself.
Corn Futures, Dollar, Corn Inventory
Friday, February 26, 2010
Corn Prices Rise on Weather
Corn Prices 2010
Although it's only speculation at this time, corn prices surged on the possibility melting show in the mid-west will result in flooding, which will in turn cause a smaller planting of corn by farmers in the spring.
A smaller planting of course will end up with a smaller yield of corn.
Even so, estimates from the USDA have corn acreage to be planted this year at some 89 million, up from the 86.5 million acres in 2009.
With weather expected to be at very cold levels in the region for the next three weeks, along with a potential 6 inches of water inherent in the snow laying on the ground of the great plains and the mid-west, that will put back the normal time of the spring thaw, making it harder to plant as well as harvest corn.
Taking that all into consideration, the question is whether the additional corn acreage planted in 2010 will make up for the late season and possible crop shortage in some areas.
Corn Prices 2010
Although it's only speculation at this time, corn prices surged on the possibility melting show in the mid-west will result in flooding, which will in turn cause a smaller planting of corn by farmers in the spring.
A smaller planting of course will end up with a smaller yield of corn.
Even so, estimates from the USDA have corn acreage to be planted this year at some 89 million, up from the 86.5 million acres in 2009.
With weather expected to be at very cold levels in the region for the next three weeks, along with a potential 6 inches of water inherent in the snow laying on the ground of the great plains and the mid-west, that will put back the normal time of the spring thaw, making it harder to plant as well as harvest corn.
Taking that all into consideration, the question is whether the additional corn acreage planted in 2010 will make up for the late season and possible crop shortage in some areas.
Corn Prices 2010
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Commodities: USDA MIsses Big on Corn Estimate
USDA misses big on acres planted in corn
It's hard to believe, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture missed the number of acres planted in corn this year by 1 million less than asserted on October 10.
That will bring the number of expected bushels down by 167 million from the last report.
Consequently, that could be good news for farmers, who can now expect about 5 cents more a bushel than thought, coming in at between $4.35 to $5.35 a bushel going ahead.
The USDA hasn't done too well this year in its corn estimates and other grain estimates as well.
It's hard to believe, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture missed the number of acres planted in corn this year by 1 million less than asserted on October 10.
That will bring the number of expected bushels down by 167 million from the last report.
Consequently, that could be good news for farmers, who can now expect about 5 cents more a bushel than thought, coming in at between $4.35 to $5.35 a bushel going ahead.
The USDA hasn't done too well this year in its corn estimates and other grain estimates as well.
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