Some analysts believe the media reports and scattered data are representative of an real economic recovery, and see copper prices rising in the near future; possibly as early as next week.
That is contrary to hedge funds, who have betting copper prices will continue falling. They've been betting against copper since August.
According to a Bloomberg survey, of the twenty analysts queried, thirteen of them believe copper prices will rise next week. Four of them see copper falling, while the other three are neutral on copper prices in the near term.
Traders on the other hand are betting against that positive outlook, believing the price of copper will fall after moving up since November. Inventories climbing to a two-year high is the reasoning there.
Supply of copper has pressured prices downward, as they've doubled since September. Even so, Barclays (BCS) says within the next six months stockpiles will fall and shortages will return.
According to Barclays, China and North America account for 53 percent of copper demand, so how they go, overall, so will go copper. Optimistic growth estimates of 8.3 percent in the second and third quarters for China and 2.8 percent for America, may drive up the copper demand.
The question is whether this is being far too optimistic.
In the two middle quarters, Barclays sees copper demand soaring by 288,000 tons, reducing the surplus to 56,000 tons. Goldman Sachs (GS) is also bullish on copper, predicting copper will reach $9,000 in six months.
Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sow traders aren't as optimistic with copper, as they hold a net-short position of 7,172 futures and options as of February 26, the highest amount since Aug. 14, compared with a net-long position of 11,413 contracts the prior week.
As measured by warehouses tracked by LME, it appears at this time that hedge funds and speculators may be closer to the truth, as inventories jumped on Wednesday to 481,225. There was a plunge in copper withdrawal orders, which dropped 68 percent since early January 2013. On March 6 they stood at a nine-month low.
Assuming the U.S. and China do grow at projected levels, the other key player in copper demand is Europe, which accounts for 17 percent of global demand. With the recession continuing there, and another year of contraction expected by the IMF, demand could dwindle significantly which would increase supply.
As usual there are mixed signals that aren't easy to interpret. But my thought is copper supply will probably continue to outpace demand, and prices in 2013 are likely to remain under some pressure.
There is simply nothing economically to suggest the global economy is growing at a pace that contradicts that high probability. Europe is really worse than is presently being reported, and it's quite possible that's the same with China and the U.S.
We need to tread carefully with copper, keeping a skeptical eye on the reports the media seem to be trying to spin so positively.
Showing posts with label Barclays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barclays. Show all posts
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Commodity Revenue for Investment Banks Plunges in 2012
Revenue for investment banks from commodities dropped in 2012, with intrusive regulations and increased capital requirements resulting in less interest from clients. Another factor was volatility for the year was relatively low, also affecting interest in the sector.
The drop was a huge 25 percent from 2011, with revenue coming in at $6 billion for 2012, down significantly from the $8 billion in revenue generated the year before.
Ten banks were by consultant Coalition, including Bank of America/Merrill Lynch (BAC), Barclays (BCS), Citigroup (C), Credit Suisse (CS), Deutsche Bank (DB), JP Morgan (JPM), RBS (RBS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and UBS (UBS).
A report released by Coalition said, "Low volatility and reduced client activity led to a 24 per cent drop in revenues. Energy, investor products and precious metals options businesses were notably affected.
"Performance was also subdued by ongoing concerns about increased regulation and capital sensitivity, pushing banks to re-evaluate their commodities strategies."
In its quarterly results last month, Morgan Stanley said the commodity revenue for the fourth quarter was the lowest since 1995.
The drop was a huge 25 percent from 2011, with revenue coming in at $6 billion for 2012, down significantly from the $8 billion in revenue generated the year before.
Ten banks were by consultant Coalition, including Bank of America/Merrill Lynch (BAC), Barclays (BCS), Citigroup (C), Credit Suisse (CS), Deutsche Bank (DB), JP Morgan (JPM), RBS (RBS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and UBS (UBS).
A report released by Coalition said, "Low volatility and reduced client activity led to a 24 per cent drop in revenues. Energy, investor products and precious metals options businesses were notably affected.
"Performance was also subdued by ongoing concerns about increased regulation and capital sensitivity, pushing banks to re-evaluate their commodities strategies."
In its quarterly results last month, Morgan Stanley said the commodity revenue for the fourth quarter was the lowest since 1995.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) Should Deliver 7% to 9% Production Growth Long Term
Over the next five years, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) should grow production at an annual rate of 7 percent to 9 percent, says Barclays (NYSE:BCS).
"Anadarko reported an adjusted Q3 EPS headline miss of $0.21 vs. our $0.25 and consensus of $0.28. Higher-than-guided G&A contributed to the miss vs. our estimates as APC accrued a $30-million non-executive compensation charge related to a program designed to retain personnel after the Macondo incident. The company slightly raised 2010 production guidance and lowered spending - 3%. We continue to believe the long-term story is intact with APC poised to deliver 7-9% annual production growth for the next five years. The uncertainty surrounding potential liabilities from the Macondo incident is likely to steer performance in the intermediate term."
EPS estimates lowered from $1.85 to $1.55 for the full year 2010, and for the full year 2011 from $1.45 to $0.80.
Anadarko closed down at $63.64, dropping $0.18, or 0.28 percent. Barclays maintains an "Overweight" on them with a price target of $71, raised from $65.
"Anadarko reported an adjusted Q3 EPS headline miss of $0.21 vs. our $0.25 and consensus of $0.28. Higher-than-guided G&A contributed to the miss vs. our estimates as APC accrued a $30-million non-executive compensation charge related to a program designed to retain personnel after the Macondo incident. The company slightly raised 2010 production guidance and lowered spending - 3%. We continue to believe the long-term story is intact with APC poised to deliver 7-9% annual production growth for the next five years. The uncertainty surrounding potential liabilities from the Macondo incident is likely to steer performance in the intermediate term."
EPS estimates lowered from $1.85 to $1.55 for the full year 2010, and for the full year 2011 from $1.45 to $0.80.
Anadarko closed down at $63.64, dropping $0.18, or 0.28 percent. Barclays maintains an "Overweight" on them with a price target of $71, raised from $65.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Sunoco Logistics (NYSE:SXL) Has Sustainable Growth Rate Say Barclays (NYSE:BCS)
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) sees the projected growth rate of Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE:SXL) as being conservative, and believe guidance is lower than what the sustainable growth rate of the company will be over the long term.
" While '11 distribution growth guidance is below consensus, SXL should still post above-average growth. We believe 6% guidance in '11 is conservative, as SXL will generate incremental cash flow from $400MM of expansion capex in '10. We expect 7.5% growth in 2011 and view 6% as more of a long-term sustainable growth rate for SXL," said Barclays.
"Our $83 PT is based on a distribution run rate of $5.00 (previously $4.97) and 6% yield (previously 6.25%). Rolling forward our distribution estimate one quarter more than offsets slightly lower '11 growth rate."
SXL closed Monday at $80.04, gaining $0.05, or 0.06 percent. Barclays raised their price target on them from $80 to $83.
" While '11 distribution growth guidance is below consensus, SXL should still post above-average growth. We believe 6% guidance in '11 is conservative, as SXL will generate incremental cash flow from $400MM of expansion capex in '10. We expect 7.5% growth in 2011 and view 6% as more of a long-term sustainable growth rate for SXL," said Barclays.
"Our $83 PT is based on a distribution run rate of $5.00 (previously $4.97) and 6% yield (previously 6.25%). Rolling forward our distribution estimate one quarter more than offsets slightly lower '11 growth rate."
SXL closed Monday at $80.04, gaining $0.05, or 0.06 percent. Barclays raised their price target on them from $80 to $83.
Alliance Resource (Nasdaq:ARLP) Should Rebound in 2011
Alliance Resource Partners (Nasdaq:ARLP) should enjoy a rebound in 2011 says Barclays (NYSE:BCS), who raised the price target on the coal miner while maintaining their "Equalweight" rating on the company.
Barclays said, "Alliance Resource Partners reported 3Q10 earnings per unit of $1.48 vs. the consensus estimate of $1.69/unit and our estimate of $1.67/unit. The miss was driven in part by lower than expected coal volumes in Northern and Central Appalachia due to the heightened regulatory environment together with higher operating costs due to the ongoing ramp up of the River View mine...Our new $62 target price assumes a 6.5% yield on our 2012 distribution estimate of $4.00 per unit. Our prior price target of $55/unit assumed a 7.3% yield on our 2012 distribution estimate of $4.00 per unit."
Barclays did lower their earnings per share estimate on Alliance from $6.90 to $6.70 a share, but increased it significantly for full year 2011 from $5.70 to 6.75.
Alliance closed Monday at $59.45, gaining $0.61, or 1.04 percent. Barclays increased their price target on the company from $55 to $62.
Barclays said, "Alliance Resource Partners reported 3Q10 earnings per unit of $1.48 vs. the consensus estimate of $1.69/unit and our estimate of $1.67/unit. The miss was driven in part by lower than expected coal volumes in Northern and Central Appalachia due to the heightened regulatory environment together with higher operating costs due to the ongoing ramp up of the River View mine...Our new $62 target price assumes a 6.5% yield on our 2012 distribution estimate of $4.00 per unit. Our prior price target of $55/unit assumed a 7.3% yield on our 2012 distribution estimate of $4.00 per unit."
Barclays did lower their earnings per share estimate on Alliance from $6.90 to $6.70 a share, but increased it significantly for full year 2011 from $5.70 to 6.75.
Alliance closed Monday at $59.45, gaining $0.61, or 1.04 percent. Barclays increased their price target on the company from $55 to $62.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Has Enbridge Energy (NYSE:EEP) Finally Turned the Corner?
After reputation problems results from the pipeline spills, Barclays (NYSE:BCS) sees Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE:EEP) as having turned the corner, maintaining their "Equalweight" on them while raising the price target.
Barclays said, "Turning the corner following pipeline spills. Combining better-than-expected 3Q results, a restart of Lines 6A and 6B, expected accretion from the Elk City acquisition and reaffirmation of distribution growth guidance, we feel EEP has turned the corner following the pipeline spills. While EEP will likely have a few messy accounting quarters and higher '11 maintenance capex, the spill overhang is largely removed, in our opinion."
Since the middle of September Enbridge has rebounded in share price nicely.
They closed Friday at $61.49, dropping $0.09, or 0.15 percent. Barclays raised their price target from $58 to $62 on Enbridge.
For earnings per share, that was adjusted for FY11 EPS from $2.72 to $2.92 and FY12 from $3.00 to $3.05.
Barclays said, "Turning the corner following pipeline spills. Combining better-than-expected 3Q results, a restart of Lines 6A and 6B, expected accretion from the Elk City acquisition and reaffirmation of distribution growth guidance, we feel EEP has turned the corner following the pipeline spills. While EEP will likely have a few messy accounting quarters and higher '11 maintenance capex, the spill overhang is largely removed, in our opinion."
Since the middle of September Enbridge has rebounded in share price nicely.
They closed Friday at $61.49, dropping $0.09, or 0.15 percent. Barclays raised their price target from $58 to $62 on Enbridge.
For earnings per share, that was adjusted for FY11 EPS from $2.72 to $2.92 and FY12 from $3.00 to $3.05.
Chart Industries (Nasdaq:GTLS) Orders Expected to Accelerate Says Barclays (NYSE:BCS)
Citing a global energy infrastructure buildout cycle starting up again, Barclays (NYSE:BCS) said orders for Chart Industries (Nasdaq:GTLS) should accelerate in 2011.
Barclays said, "We continue to believe Chart represents a solid long term investment and is a good way to gain leverage to the global energy
infrastructure buildout cycle which is restarting. We expect orders to
accelerate and drive backlog higher in the coming quarters.
"We are raising our 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates to $1.80 (from $1.70) and
$2.50 (from $2.40) reflecting higher margin assumptions for the Energy &
Chemicals and BioMedical businesses. We are increasing our price target to
$34. We are now keying our price target for GTLS off of 2012E earnings vs.
2011 previously) given increased confidence in a recovery in demand for energy infrastructure equipment and our view that 2012 will represent a more normalized earnings year for the company."
Barclays reiterated an "Overweight" on Chart, raising their price target from $27 to $34. Chart closed Friday's trading session at $23.30, losing $0.83, or 3.44 percent.
Barclays said, "We continue to believe Chart represents a solid long term investment and is a good way to gain leverage to the global energy
infrastructure buildout cycle which is restarting. We expect orders to
accelerate and drive backlog higher in the coming quarters.
"We are raising our 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates to $1.80 (from $1.70) and
$2.50 (from $2.40) reflecting higher margin assumptions for the Energy &
Chemicals and BioMedical businesses. We are increasing our price target to
$34. We are now keying our price target for GTLS off of 2012E earnings vs.
2011 previously) given increased confidence in a recovery in demand for energy infrastructure equipment and our view that 2012 will represent a more normalized earnings year for the company."
Barclays reiterated an "Overweight" on Chart, raising their price target from $27 to $34. Chart closed Friday's trading session at $23.30, losing $0.83, or 3.44 percent.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Copano Energy (Nasdaq:CPNO) Distribution Rates Slowing
Saying the slower distribution rates of Copano Energy (Nasdaq:CPNO), they should underperform their peers, said Barclays (NYSE:BCS), which downgraded them from "Overweight" to "Equalweight."
"We downgrade CPNO due to slower distribution growth prospects compared to its Overweight rated peers: Given expected tight distribution coverage in 2010 and 2011 we estimate CPNO will leave its distribution flat and resume growth at 2-5% level in 2012-2014, based on our assumption that it can successfully deploy $150-200 mm of growth capital per year at 5x return multiple. While this requires strong execution skill, which CPNO has demonstrated in the past, we note that CPNO's growth forecast falls below our Overweight rated G&P MLPs that have either started to raise distribution or should be in a position to raise distribution in 2011 and beyond by 5-10% range," said Barclays.
Earnings per share estimates were lowered by Barclays for FY11 from $0.06 to -$0.09 and FY12 from $0.46 to $0.26.
Morgan Keegan also downgraded them from "Outperform" to "Market Perform."
Copano closed at $28.76, falling $0.80, or 2.71 percent.
"We downgrade CPNO due to slower distribution growth prospects compared to its Overweight rated peers: Given expected tight distribution coverage in 2010 and 2011 we estimate CPNO will leave its distribution flat and resume growth at 2-5% level in 2012-2014, based on our assumption that it can successfully deploy $150-200 mm of growth capital per year at 5x return multiple. While this requires strong execution skill, which CPNO has demonstrated in the past, we note that CPNO's growth forecast falls below our Overweight rated G&P MLPs that have either started to raise distribution or should be in a position to raise distribution in 2011 and beyond by 5-10% range," said Barclays.
Earnings per share estimates were lowered by Barclays for FY11 from $0.06 to -$0.09 and FY12 from $0.46 to $0.26.
Morgan Keegan also downgraded them from "Outperform" to "Market Perform."
Copano closed at $28.76, falling $0.80, or 2.71 percent.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Reiterates an "Equalweight" on FirstEnergy (NYSE:FE)
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) says it's maintining an "Equalweight" rating on FirstEnergy (NYSE:FE), citing WV merger recommendations as being not as constructive as hoped for.
Barclays said, "We prefer owning FE for its 5.7% dividend yield to Allegheny Energy (NYSE:AYE) ; (Equalweight rating) which we expect could go to $19/share on a deal break (12.3x our $1.55 in 2012). We view the WV recommendations as less than constructive as expected, but not insurmountable to merger approval. Regulated synergies are only 17% of the transaction post an equal sharing, but the Staff recommendation is more negative. Our forecasts show the deal to be accretive in 2013 at $3.19 versus $3.11 standalone."
FirstEnergy has also had problems keeping its gross margins at past levels, and have taken on more debt over the last several years, increasing their debt-to-equity ratio.
The energy company does have an ex dividend date on November 3, 2010.
They closed Friday at $38.93, gaining $0.28, or 0.72 percent. Barclays has a price target of $38 a share on them.
Barclays said, "We prefer owning FE for its 5.7% dividend yield to Allegheny Energy (NYSE:AYE) ; (Equalweight rating) which we expect could go to $19/share on a deal break (12.3x our $1.55 in 2012). We view the WV recommendations as less than constructive as expected, but not insurmountable to merger approval. Regulated synergies are only 17% of the transaction post an equal sharing, but the Staff recommendation is more negative. Our forecasts show the deal to be accretive in 2013 at $3.19 versus $3.11 standalone."
FirstEnergy has also had problems keeping its gross margins at past levels, and have taken on more debt over the last several years, increasing their debt-to-equity ratio.
The energy company does have an ex dividend date on November 3, 2010.
They closed Friday at $38.93, gaining $0.28, or 0.72 percent. Barclays has a price target of $38 a share on them.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Venoco's (NYSE:VQ) Poor Monterey Shale Results Push Shares Down
Venoco (NYSE:VQ), which engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties, had disappointing results from their Monterey shale project, pushing the share price of the company down.
Even so, Barclays (NYSE:BSC) said they're maintaining an "Equalweight" on the company.
"Results from first onshore horizontal Monterey well were disappointing; however, we believe the play still holds significant potential and will be the primary share price driver...We are revising our FY10 EPS/DCFPS estimates to $0.50/$2.95 from $0.55/$3.00 and our FY11 EPS/DCFPS estimates to $0.65/$3.35 from $1.00/$3.70," said Barclays.
Venoco shares plummeted, closing Tuesday at $16.53, losing $0.47, or 2.76 percent. Barclays has a price target of $25 on the energy company.
Even so, Barclays (NYSE:BSC) said they're maintaining an "Equalweight" on the company.
"Results from first onshore horizontal Monterey well were disappointing; however, we believe the play still holds significant potential and will be the primary share price driver...We are revising our FY10 EPS/DCFPS estimates to $0.50/$2.95 from $0.55/$3.00 and our FY11 EPS/DCFPS estimates to $0.65/$3.35 from $1.00/$3.70," said Barclays.
Venoco shares plummeted, closing Tuesday at $16.53, losing $0.47, or 2.76 percent. Barclays has a price target of $25 on the energy company.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Raises Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Estimates and Price Target
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) increased its price target and earnings estimates on The Mosaic Company, although they kept their "Equalweight" in place.
"After MOS' Q1/f2011 conference call, we are increasing our target price to $60/sh to reflect higher expected sales volumes in its phosphates division along with lower corporate taxes," said Barclays' analyst.
The full year earnings estimate for 2011 was raised from $3.11 to $3.63, and for 2012 earnings for the full year were raised from $3.86 to $4.30.
Barclays raised the price target on Mosaic from $54 to $60, as they closed at $61.01 Wednesday, gaining $0.21, or 0.35 percent.
"After MOS' Q1/f2011 conference call, we are increasing our target price to $60/sh to reflect higher expected sales volumes in its phosphates division along with lower corporate taxes," said Barclays' analyst.
The full year earnings estimate for 2011 was raised from $3.11 to $3.63, and for 2012 earnings for the full year were raised from $3.86 to $4.30.
Barclays raised the price target on Mosaic from $54 to $60, as they closed at $61.01 Wednesday, gaining $0.21, or 0.35 percent.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Reiterates "Overweight" on NextEra (NYSE:NEE)
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) maintained its "Overweight" on NextEra (NYSE:NEE), citing the probability of a rate approval increase after the staff approves FP&L Settlement.
"On Monday afternoon, Florida PSC staff filed testimony approving a settlement that had been adopted by all parties as part of FP&L's reconsideration motion following its most recent rate case. The approval by staff is a positive for the stock, in our view, as it increases the likelihood of the settlement's approval by the FPSC and removes a potential overhang. Procedural issues still remain, but if all goes smoothly the settlement could be voted on by the FPSC at the Oct 12 meeting. Our price target goes to $58, reflecting updates to our open EBITDA valuations published in a report titled 'Spark to Market' on 10/4/2010 and changes to '12 P/E multiples," said Barclays.
NextEra closed at $54.40 Tuesday, gaining $0.41, or 0.76 percent. Barclays lowered their price target on the company from $60 to $58.
"On Monday afternoon, Florida PSC staff filed testimony approving a settlement that had been adopted by all parties as part of FP&L's reconsideration motion following its most recent rate case. The approval by staff is a positive for the stock, in our view, as it increases the likelihood of the settlement's approval by the FPSC and removes a potential overhang. Procedural issues still remain, but if all goes smoothly the settlement could be voted on by the FPSC at the Oct 12 meeting. Our price target goes to $58, reflecting updates to our open EBITDA valuations published in a report titled 'Spark to Market' on 10/4/2010 and changes to '12 P/E multiples," said Barclays.
NextEra closed at $54.40 Tuesday, gaining $0.41, or 0.76 percent. Barclays lowered their price target on the company from $60 to $58.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Affilate Acquires Future Production from Chesapeake (NYSE:CHK)
Chesapeake Energy Corp. has sold some of the future production at its wells in the North Texas Barnett Shale field to a Barclays (NYSE:BCS) affiliate for $1.15 billion.
The natural gas producer said they're going to use the capital to shrink borrowing on a revolving credit facility, but ratings agencies in many cases consider volumetric production payment (VPP) deals as a form of debt as well.
About 8 percent of production for 2011 and 3 percent of year-end 2010 reserves are included in the deal by Chesapeake.
Included with the five-year deal will be close to 280 million cubic feet of daily production and 390 billion cubic feet of proven reserves in 2011.
Ticonderoga Securities analyst Daniel Pratt said this could lead to an underperformance of Chesapeake shares.
The natural gas producer said they're going to use the capital to shrink borrowing on a revolving credit facility, but ratings agencies in many cases consider volumetric production payment (VPP) deals as a form of debt as well.
About 8 percent of production for 2011 and 3 percent of year-end 2010 reserves are included in the deal by Chesapeake.
Included with the five-year deal will be close to 280 million cubic feet of daily production and 390 billion cubic feet of proven reserves in 2011.
Ticonderoga Securities analyst Daniel Pratt said this could lead to an underperformance of Chesapeake shares.
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Deere (NYSE:DE), Cummins (NYSE:CMI), AGCO (Nasdaq:AGCO) and Eaton (NYSE:ETN) among Favorites of Barclays (NYSE:BCS) for Brazil Exposure
In their recent research trip to Brazil concerning building out their infrastructure, Barclays (NYSE:BCS) came away with several favorites in the machinery sector serving the build-out, including Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Cummins (NYSE:CMI), Deere (NYSE:DE), AGCO (Nasdaq:AGCO) and Eaton (NYSE:ETN)
The two favorites of Barclays in the entire group are Caterpillar and CMI.
Overall, Barclays said after talking to these and many other players in Brazilian infrastructure projects, the feeling is things are picking up and those companies with large exposure should reap strong rewards going forward, as expenditures are increasing.
Brazil has been overshadowed by China and to a lesser extent India recently, and it may be their time to shine as significant capital is generated from a variety of energy sectors and projects.
Other companies they met with in the equipment industry were Terex (NYSE:TEX) and Bucyrus International (Nasdaq:BUCY).
The two favorites of Barclays in the entire group are Caterpillar and CMI.
Overall, Barclays said after talking to these and many other players in Brazilian infrastructure projects, the feeling is things are picking up and those companies with large exposure should reap strong rewards going forward, as expenditures are increasing.
Brazil has been overshadowed by China and to a lesser extent India recently, and it may be their time to shine as significant capital is generated from a variety of energy sectors and projects.
Other companies they met with in the equipment industry were Terex (NYSE:TEX) and Bucyrus International (Nasdaq:BUCY).
Bucyrus (Nasdaq:BUCY) Retains "Overweight" from Barclays (NYSE:BCS)
Bucyrus International (Nasdaq:BUCY) had its "Overweight" rating from Barclays (NYSE:BCS) maintained on them, citing higher revenue and margins from business with Terex Mining (NYSE:TEX)
"We raise our BUCY price target to $80 given our increased revenue and margin assumptions for Terex Mining (NYSE:TEX). Following recent meetings with BUCY and Vale management in South America, we see revenue/operating margin upside from TEX vs. our previous assumptions. We now forecast 2011 pro-forma revenue growth of - 25 percent for TEX vs. our prior - 12 percent and operating margin of 14.7 percent vs. our prior 13.6 percent, which added $0.30 to our prior 2011 EPS estimate," said Barclays.
Bucyrus closed at $68.71, down $1.18, or 1.69 percent. Barclays has a price target $80 on Bucyrus, raising it from $75.
"We raise our BUCY price target to $80 given our increased revenue and margin assumptions for Terex Mining (NYSE:TEX). Following recent meetings with BUCY and Vale management in South America, we see revenue/operating margin upside from TEX vs. our previous assumptions. We now forecast 2011 pro-forma revenue growth of - 25 percent for TEX vs. our prior - 12 percent and operating margin of 14.7 percent vs. our prior 13.6 percent, which added $0.30 to our prior 2011 EPS estimate," said Barclays.
Bucyrus closed at $68.71, down $1.18, or 1.69 percent. Barclays has a price target $80 on Bucyrus, raising it from $75.
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Keeps Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) at "Equalweight"
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) reiterated its "Equalweight" on The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS).
"Mosaic is expected to report Q1 f2011 results after the close on Monday October 4. We are forecasting earnings of $0.69/share versus consensus of $0.72/share."
The fertilizer company actually failed to meet even Barclays' estimates of 69 cents a share, as Mosaic ended with earnings of 67 cents a share for the quarter.
That was still almost three times the 23 cents a share they earned in the same quarter last year.
For the second fiscal quarter of 2011, the company projected they will sell from 3.3 million to 3.6 million tons of phosphate, and 1.6 million to 1.9 million tons of potash.
In the latest quarter they sold 3.1 million tons of phosphate and 1.7 million tons of potash, generating $2.19 billion in revenue, a significant increase over the $1.46 billion sold last year.
"Mosaic is expected to report Q1 f2011 results after the close on Monday October 4. We are forecasting earnings of $0.69/share versus consensus of $0.72/share."
The fertilizer company actually failed to meet even Barclays' estimates of 69 cents a share, as Mosaic ended with earnings of 67 cents a share for the quarter.
That was still almost three times the 23 cents a share they earned in the same quarter last year.
For the second fiscal quarter of 2011, the company projected they will sell from 3.3 million to 3.6 million tons of phosphate, and 1.6 million to 1.9 million tons of potash.
In the latest quarter they sold 3.1 million tons of phosphate and 1.7 million tons of potash, generating $2.19 billion in revenue, a significant increase over the $1.46 billion sold last year.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Reiterates "Overweight" on Valero (NYSE:VLO)
Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) retains an "Overweight" rating from Barclays (NYSE:BCS), also keeping its price target and earnings per share estimates in place as well.
Barclays noted the sale of its Paulsboro refinery to PBF Holding Co. in particular, saying while it's a positive move, it's not enough to change their expectations.
"After the close on 9/27/10, Valero announced that the company signed an agreement to sell its 185 mb/d (000's b/d) Paulsboro refinery to PBF Holding Co...We think this announced asset sale is a slight positive factor for VLO, with selling price largely in-line with our expectations...We also think this announcement is a positive factor for Sunoco (NYSE:SUN) because it demonstrates that there is still a market for Northeast refineries," said Barclays.
Earnings per share remain at $1.70 for 2010 and $2.10 for 2011.
Valero closed Tuesday at $17.07, gaining $0.19, or 1.13 percent. They have a price target of $22 on them.
Barclays noted the sale of its Paulsboro refinery to PBF Holding Co. in particular, saying while it's a positive move, it's not enough to change their expectations.
"After the close on 9/27/10, Valero announced that the company signed an agreement to sell its 185 mb/d (000's b/d) Paulsboro refinery to PBF Holding Co...We think this announced asset sale is a slight positive factor for VLO, with selling price largely in-line with our expectations...We also think this announcement is a positive factor for Sunoco (NYSE:SUN) because it demonstrates that there is still a market for Northeast refineries," said Barclays.
Earnings per share remain at $1.70 for 2010 and $2.10 for 2011.
Valero closed Tuesday at $17.07, gaining $0.19, or 1.13 percent. They have a price target of $22 on them.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Constellation Energy (NYSE:CEG) Retains "Equalweight" from Barclays (NYSE:BCS)
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) said it has maintained its "Equalweight" rating on Constellation Energy (NYSE:CEG), while raising their earnings per share range.
"Raising our 2012 EPS to $2.30 from $2.14 and our 2013E is $3.00. We believe the prospects for NewEnergy at a range of $1.00-$1.40 for 2012 produces a range of $2.10-$2.50 for CEG. Getting to the higher end of the range requires $5/mwhr margins on Retail and $3/Mwhr for Wholesale including $0.50/MWhr of portfolio management. A mix shift to larger accounts also helps to control costs. We also include Boston Gen in our forecast starting in 2011."
Constellation closed Thursday at $32.04, gaining $0.04, or 0.13 percent. Volume was down from the 3-month average.
"Raising our 2012 EPS to $2.30 from $2.14 and our 2013E is $3.00. We believe the prospects for NewEnergy at a range of $1.00-$1.40 for 2012 produces a range of $2.10-$2.50 for CEG. Getting to the higher end of the range requires $5/mwhr margins on Retail and $3/Mwhr for Wholesale including $0.50/MWhr of portfolio management. A mix shift to larger accounts also helps to control costs. We also include Boston Gen in our forecast starting in 2011."
Constellation closed Thursday at $32.04, gaining $0.04, or 0.13 percent. Volume was down from the 3-month average.
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Reiterates "Equalweight" on JA Solar (Nasdaq:JASO)
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) reiterated its "Equalweight" on JA Solar Holdings(Nasdaq:JASO), while also raising the price target on the alternative energy stock.
"Checks indicate cell fundamentals could likely remain strong in December (flat cell pricing in December, a good leading indicator for Q1 module demand). Robust cell market fundamentals and relatively strong execution could drive upside to Q3/Q4 fundamentals and street estimates," said Barclays.
Earnings per share for full year 2010 were raised to a range of $1.10 to $1.25, and for full year 2011, from $0.70 to $0.95.
JA Solar closed Thursday at $7.86, dropping $0.03, or 0.38 percent. Barclays' price target was increased from $6 to $8.
"Checks indicate cell fundamentals could likely remain strong in December (flat cell pricing in December, a good leading indicator for Q1 module demand). Robust cell market fundamentals and relatively strong execution could drive upside to Q3/Q4 fundamentals and street estimates," said Barclays.
Earnings per share for full year 2010 were raised to a range of $1.10 to $1.25, and for full year 2011, from $0.70 to $0.95.
JA Solar closed Thursday at $7.86, dropping $0.03, or 0.38 percent. Barclays' price target was increased from $6 to $8.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) Maintains "Overweight" on ReneSola (NYSE:SOL)
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) reiterated its "Overweight" on ReneSola Ltd (NYSE: SOL), with a price target of $12 a share.
"Wafer market tightness could continue to drive near-term positive earnings momentum and share price outperformance, in our view. Shares are trading at - 6x our '11 estimates, at a discount to Chinese solar peers. Bull case '11 earnings power of $2.50 likely assuming shipments/pricing trends turn out to be in line with mgmt expectations. Downside risk limited to $9, upside potential to $12-$14 likely, in our view," said Barclays' analyst.
ReneSola closed at $10.87 Monday, gaining $0.59, or 5.79 percent. They have a market cap of $938.66 million.
"Wafer market tightness could continue to drive near-term positive earnings momentum and share price outperformance, in our view. Shares are trading at - 6x our '11 estimates, at a discount to Chinese solar peers. Bull case '11 earnings power of $2.50 likely assuming shipments/pricing trends turn out to be in line with mgmt expectations. Downside risk limited to $9, upside potential to $12-$14 likely, in our view," said Barclays' analyst.
ReneSola closed at $10.87 Monday, gaining $0.59, or 5.79 percent. They have a market cap of $938.66 million.
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