Potash (POT) (RIG) (CCJ) (CHK) (EPL) (UDRL) (AGU) Ratings Changes and Initiations

Shares of Potash Corp (POT), Transocean (RIG), Cameco Co. (CCJ), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Energy Partners, Ltd. (EPL), Union Drilling, Inc. (UDRL) and Agrium (AGU) had ratings on them adjusted or initiated by analysts.

Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded Transocean (RIG) from a "Sell" rating to a "Neutral" rating. They have a price target of $54.00 on the company.

TD Securities downgraded Cameco Co. (CCJ) from a "Buy" rating to a "Hold" rating. They have a price target of $24.00 on the company.

Stifel Nicolaus downgraded Chesapeake Energy (CHK) from a "Buy" rating to a "Hold" rating. They have a price target of $22.00 on the company.

Stifel Nicolaus downgraded Energy Partners, Ltd. (EPL) from a "Buy" rating to a "Hold" rating.

Gabelli downgraded Union Drilling, Inc. (UDRL) from a "Buy" rating to a "Hold" rating.

Dundee Securities initiated coverage on Agrium (AGU). They placed a "Buy" rating on the company.

Dundee Securities initiated coverage on Potash Corp. (POT). They placed a "Buy" rating on the company.

Agrium (AGU) (MOS) (MS) (YARIY) (SASR) (FRT) Ratings, Price Targets

Agrium Inc. (AGU), The Mosaic Company (MOS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Yara International ASA (YARIY), Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc. (SASR) and Realty Investment Trust (FRT) had ratings and price targets on them adjusted by analysts.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded Agrium Inc. (AGU) to a "Neutral" rating.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded The Mosaic Company (MOS) from a "Neutral" rating to a "Overweight" rating.

RBC Capital upgraded Morgan Stanley (MS) from a "Underperform" rating to a "Sector Perform" rating.

ING Group upgraded Yara International ASA (YARIY) from a "Hold" rating to a "Buy" rating.

Janney Montgomery Scott downgraded Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc. (SASR) from a "Buy" rating to a "Neutral" rating.

Cowen Federal Realty Inv. Trust (FRT) from a "Underperform" rating to a "Neutral" rating.

Agrium (AGU) (JEF) (MTB) (SYT) (SYNC) (CTAS) Ratings, Price Targets

Agrium Inc. (AGU), Jefferies Group (JEF), M&T Bank Co. (MTB), Syngenta AG (SYT), Synacor (SYNC) and Cintas (CTAS) had ratings and price targets on them adjusted by analysts.

Macquarie upgraded Agrium Inc. (AGU) from a "Neutral" rating to a "Outperform" rating.

Sandler O'Neill downgraded Jefferies Group (JEF) from a "Hold" rating to a "Sell" rating.

Guggenheim downgraded M&T Bank Co. (MTB) from a "Buy" rating to a "Neutral" rating.

Goldman Sachs upgraded Syngenta AG (SYT) from a "Neutral" rating to a "Buy" rating.

Citigroup initiated coverage on Synacor (SYNC). They placed a "Buy" rating on the company.

Robert W. Baird Cintas (CTAS) from a "Outperform" rating to a "Neutral" rating. They have a price target of $45.00 on the company.

Agrium (AGU) (IPRPY) (WBS) (ARG) (WPZ) (CCOI) (CMA) Ratings, Price Targets

Agrium Inc. (AGU), International Power plc (IPRPY), Webster Financial (WBS), Airgas, Inc. (ARG), Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ), Cogent Communications (CCOI) and Comerica (CMA) had ratings and price targets on them adjusted by analysts.

Piper Jaffray initiated coverage on Agrium Inc. (AGU). They have a "Neutral" rating on the company.

Nomura downgraded International Power plc (IPRPY) from a "Buy" rating to a "Neutral" rating.

RBC Capital downgraded Webster Financial (WBS) from a "Outperform " rating to a "Sector Perform" rating.

Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Airgas, Inc. (ARG). They have an "Overweight" rating on the company.

Tudor Pickering upgraded Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ) from a "Hold" rating to a "Accumulate" rating.

Stephens downgraded Cogent Communications (CCOI) from a "Overweight" rating to a "Equal Weight" rating.

Sanford C. Bernstein downgraded Comerica (CMA) from a "Outperform" rating to a "Market Perform" rating.

Agrium (AGU) (XWES) (CJES) (APC) (CMP) (PXD) Ratings, Price Targets

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), World Energy (NASDAQ: XWES), C&J Energy Services (NASDAQ: CJES), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), Compass Minerals International, Inc. (NYSE: CMP) and Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) had ratings and price targets on them adjusted by analysts.

World Energy (NASDAQ: XWES) is now covered by analysts at ThinkEquity. They set a “buy” rating on the stock.

C&J Energy Services (NASDAQ: CJES) is now covered by analysts at Morgan Stanley. They set an “equal weight” rating on the stock.

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) had its price target raised by analysts at Goldman Sachs from $80.00 to $85.00. They now have a “neutral” rating on the stock.

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) had its price target raised by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from $101.00 to $107.00. They now have a “buy” rating on the stock.

Compass Minerals International, Inc. (NYSE: CMP) had its price target lowered by analysts at Goldman Sachs from $78.00 to $77.00. They now have a “sell” rating on the stock.

Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) had its price target raised by analysts at Oppenheimer from $110.00 to $125.00. They now have an “outperform” rating on the stock.

Potash (POT) (CF) (MOS) (AGU) (MON) (DE) Jump on Record Corn Futures

Potash (NYSE:POT), CF Industries (NYSE:CF), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and Monsanto (NYSE:MON) close up as corn futures settle at record price.

Also climbing was Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE), as the manufacturer of farm, turf and lawn equipment usually moves up on positive agriculture news.

Corn futures soared to a new settlement price record, with the July front-month contract rising 21 cents, or 2.8 percent, to settle at $7.854 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. It reached as high as $7.93 before pulling back.

Lower acreage planted in the U.S., rising demand from China, and weather-related crop damage is pushing the price of corn up.

Wasting corn supply on ethanol is also weighing on the corn equation.

Potash closed Thursday at $55.36, gaining $2.12, or 3.98 percent. CF Industries closed at $154.86, soaring $6.24, or 4.20 percent. Mosaic closed at $68.84, rising $3.18, or 4.84 percent. Agrium ended the day at $84.71, jumping $2.76, or 3.37 percent. Monsanto closed at $69.51, up $1.89, or 2.80 percent. Deere closed at $82.00, increasing $2.04, or 2.55 percent.

CF (CF) Gets Fertilized by JPMorgan (JPM)

CF Industries Holdings Inc (NYSE: CF) got some rating fertilizer from JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and shares in the company soared.

JPMorgan upgraded CF from a "Neutral" rating to an "Overweight" rating, placing a price target of $170 on the fertilizer company.

The overall sector received a boost, which also helped CF, as Citibank (NYSE:C) said they see the industry being able to successfully raise fertilizer prices, which will also help CF competitors Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS).

For CF specifically, JPMorgan said the positive outlook for the agriculture sector and the healthy cash flow of CF is the catalyst behind their upgrade.

Higher crop prices should stimulate the fertilizer sector and open farmers' wallets without too much trepidation.

CF Industries closed Monday at $147.75, soaring $8.69, or 6.25 percent.

Citigroup (NYSE:C) Slaps Agrium (NYSE:AGU) with Downgrade After Big Miss

The miss by Agrium (NYSE:AGU) with its quarterly results was a big one, and Citigroup (NYSE:C) punished them with a downgrade, dropping them from "Buy" to "Hold."

Not only was the miss an unexpected event for analysts, it was the size of the miss, where earnings came in at $111 million, or 70 cents a share, far off the 87 cents a share analysts were looking for.

The only thing that was offered as a possibility was that analysts may have missed the timing of the price increases, which may have skewed their expectations.

Agrium said gross profit for the quarter increased 26 percent to $500 million, driven mostly by a strong performance from its retail unit.

Guidance given by Agrium was for fourth-quarter earnings to increase to a range of $1.00 to $1.30 a share, far above the 97 cents a share the Street is looking for.

As Agrium found out though, delivering on a promise and expectation is harder than giving one.

Agrium fell to $84.92 on Wednesday, losing $2.30, or 2.64 percent.

BHP (NYSE:BHP) May Get Rival Bid for Potash (NYSE:POT) from Russian Company

The more you hear about the opposition to BHP's (NYSE:BHP) bid for Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), the more you realize it's a good thing, and you check under the more carefully as to why there is such an uproar over a simple bid for the company.

It has largely to do with the misguided partnership of the province of Saskatchewan with Potash, where the Canpotex cartel wrongly manipulates prices and supply in order to maintain the prices and margins they want.

They have a major competitor in the Belarusian Canpotex cartel as well, although they seem to work closely in unison as far as pricing and supply goes, effectively controlling the overall global market.

This is why Phosagro, a Russian-based company has emerged out of nowhere as a potential bidder for Potash, as they recognize the threat to the control of potash from BHP Billiton.

Phosagro's chairman, Vladimir Litvinenko, said, "If BHP controls the potash market, the consequences for our producers may be serious ... we can lose part of [our] markets. This is obvious."

This is also the reason Saskatchewan has been opposing the bid, as they have a sweetheart royalty deal with Canpotex over potash produced in the province, and the also see BHP as a detriment to their siphoning off of billions from the above-market prices and royalties generated from the cartel.

Why this is a threat is because BHP doesn't like the cartel mentality and obvious socialist way the consortium is being operated, and have publicly stated they will produce potash at the rate they choose to and charge competitive prices, not what the other members of the cartel want them to charge, which include Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) and Agrium (NYSE:AGU).

The bottom line? BHP would be good for the industry which has been silently controlling the price of potash, which by extension, controls, to a certain degree, the price of the crops that use the fertilizer.

BHP would be one of the best things to happen to the industry if they are allowed to go forward with the bid and take charge of Potash Corp.

Agrium (NYSE:AGU) Downgraded on Valuation after 3-Month Rise in Share Price

After rising over 33 percent over the last three months, Agrium's (NYSE:AGU) valuation seems to be strongly reflecting the value of the company, and Chardan downgrading them to "Neutral," citing valuation as their reasoning behind the move.

The actual ongoing run-up in share price started in July, when the company was valued at just under $50 a share, and stand today at over $87 a share.

Some of this was from increasing corn and soybean prices, but also the bid by BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) for Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), which tended to offer support for the overall industry, and increase other potential takeover rumors as well.

Agrium closed Tuesday at $87.22, dropping $1.16, or 1.31 percent.

Potash,(NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU), Mosaic's (NYSE:MOS) Canpotex Marketing Arm Lands Five Year Indian Deal

The Canpotex monopoly and price-fixing entity of Canada, which includes Potash,(NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), have landed a five-year deal to supply 3 million tons of potash to India's Coromandel International Ltd.

Canpotex CEO Steve Dechka said, "This agreement confirms Canpotex's long-term commitment to the important Indian market, and reflects the confidence our Indian partner, CIL, has in Canpotex's ability to meet their growing potash requirements."

Terms of the deal call for a 500,000 annual supply through March 31, 2016.

Opposition to the bid from BHP (NYSE:BHP) is largely based on their commitment to produce potash at market rates rather than the price controls of the Canpotex cartel.

Farmers pay higher prices and food is also higher in price because of Canpotex and the Belarusian potash cartel.

Hopefully the Canadian government will resist politically-based opposition and allow the bid by BHP Billiton to go forward, as it would be good for the industry and markets.

Agrium (NYSE:AGU), CF (NYSE:CF), The Way to Play Corn says Soleil

With corn, and by extension - nitrogen fertilizer, rising in price, the best way to play the sector is through Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and CF Industries, says Soleil Securities.

Soleil initiated coverage on Agrium with a "Buy" rating, saying they have an attractive valuation.

"In addition to CF Industries (Buy), we view Agrium as a way to play corn through nitrogen fertilizer...Ag-flation is back. The macro environment is favorable due to low interest rates and a weak dollar. Crop prices are up an average of 50% since June 30 on production-negative and therefore price-positive USDA grain reports ... Even after a 70% move since June 30 compared to a 12% gain in the S&P 500, the shares are now selling just at 12.7x our above-consensus EPS estimate of $6.83 per share."

Agrium Closed Monday at $88.53, gaining $1.31, or 1.50 percent. Soleil has a price target of $100 on them.

BHP (NYSE:BHP) Bid for Potash (NYSE:POT) Close to Being Decided

Excluding market factors, the bid by BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) bid for Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) is coming to a head, as the Canadian government is pouring over the details to decide whether to allow the deal to go ahead.

The province of Saskatchewan, which has been in emotional hysterics since the bid by BHP, has continued on with their strange behavior in their opposition to the bid, pressuring the Canadian government to stop the deal from going forward.

The government responded by saying they'll perform their "own analysis" on the bid, which they have until November 3 to make a decision on.

Saskatchewan has shamelessly asserted the deal will cost the province billions if BHP wins the bid, even though outside studies have shown that not to be the case as time goes on, although it could, in the short term, result in lower tax revenue for the region.

"Obviously there is a process involved and the test that we employ under the Investment Canada Act is the net benefit to Canada test," said industry minister Clement.

It would be surprising to see a decision made against BHP, but stranger things have happened.

Other than Saskatchewan, there doesn't seem to be widespread opposition to the takeover, other than from other Canpotex participants Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) and Agrium (NYSE:AGU), who don't what to see their monopoly broken up if BHP wins the bid and decides to produce the fertilizer at the rate the choose and not controlled production to maintain prices, and thus, margins.

Stifel Nicolaus Raises Agrium (AGU) to Buy, Sets $100 Price Target

The red hot agriculture sector continues to push agriculture stocks up, and a number of upgrades have followed from several financial institutions. The latest is Stifel Nicolaus raising their rating on Agrium (NYSE:AGU) from "Hold" to "BUY."

Higher corn and soybean prices and the bid by BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) for Potash Corp (NYSE:POT) has been the driving force behind the surge in share prices in the sector.

Agrium closed Thursday at $87.15, gaining $0.29, or 0.33 percent.

Stifel raised their price target on the fertilizer company to $100.

Potash (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), Agrium (NYSE:AGU) Sign 3-Year Deal with Sinofert via Canpotex

Potash (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) and Agrium (NYSE:AGU) signed a 3-year deal with China-based fertilizer giant Sinofert Holdings, via Canpotex, the marketing and pricing arm of the three companies.

Terms of the deal are for a minimum of 3.15 million tons of potash to be delivered over a three-year period, with pricing to be negotiated at six-month intervals.

The deal begins on January 1, 2011 and extends through December 31, 2013.

With the probability of supply challenges in the years ahead, China and other Asian countries will be beneficial to fertilizer suppliers for some time to come, as demand will eventually outpace supply.

Potash Corp. supplies over 53 percent of the potash sold by Canpotex.

Agrium (NYSE:AGU), Viterra (TSE:VT) Set to Outperform?

Much of the agricultural news has been overshadowed by the interesting story related to BHP's (NYSE:BHP) bid of Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), but the real story is how the lower estimated corn yields will have on nitrogen more than anything, as that's the main fertilizer used on corn. Agrium Inc. (NYSE:AGU) and Viterra Inc. (TSE:VT) could be among the stronger beneficiaries of the trend.

Some analysts are starting to realize that phosphate and potash producers may not benefit near as much as people looking at the sector in a general way may realize.

Corn prices are expected to have support over $5 a bushel over the next 12 months and maybe longer, and that means corn farmers will have more capital to use to invest in nitrogen.

Agrium is set to surpass analysts' expectations, and Viterra has a strong export portfolio which should benefit them in relationship to nitrogen.

When will Potash, (NYSE:POT), CF Industries (NYSE:CF), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI) Cool Off?

The agriculture sector was hit with two major catalyst in the a similar period of time, giving companies like Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT), CF Industries (NYSE:CF), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI) a big boost in share price.

It began when BHP (NYSE:BHP) made their $130 a share bid for Potash Corp. Then the confirmation came that corn and soybean yields would be far below prior estimates.

With the industry propped up from BHP's bid and assumptions some consolidation may start to happen, along with corn and soybean prices soaring, share prices of these companies and others connected to agriculture rose significantly.

Prices for all the companies mentioned above have soared since August.

Depending on if investors believe commodity prices are driving the move or the bid by BHP is the key factor, will determine how they are played. More than likely it's a combination of both. And depending on whether or not BHP is given the okay to take over Potash will decide how much of a factor that played in the sector.

At minimum if they are rejected, will see some pull back in the stocks. If they go forward, they could continue their upward climb for some time.

Another element is how much this will affect the price offered by BHP. They may have to push it up to somewhere in-between the existing share price of Potash and the $130 bid.

Agrium (NYSE:AGU) Downgraded by TD Newcrest on Valuation

A lot of companies have been getting the same treatment Agrium (NYSE:AGU) has been getting, as they were downgraded by TD Newcrest based on valuation from the recent runup in share price.

TD downgraded Agrium from "Action List Buy" to "Buy," saying it was "due mainly to stock price appreciation of 26% since our upgrade in mid-August."

This represents what TD evidently thinks will be a potential short-term pullback, as they raised their price target on the agricultural company from $95 to $105 a share.

Some things they see needing to happen support in nitrogen prices, as "domestic urea price has increased by 40% to about US$350/ton (fob NOLA) by the end of Q3/10, and continues to show reasonable strength so far into Q4/10." Additionally, "...the U.S. urea wholesale inventory as of the end of August is still - 14% lower than it was in the equivalent 2008 period..."

They also like the company if the price of corn continues to find support. "The corn price has rebounded over 75% since reaching an annual low in June 2010, while wheat, soybean, and rice price increased 59%, 24%, and 38%, respectively, over the same period."

Agrium closed Thursday at $86.33, down $0.48, or 0.55 percent.

BHP's (NYSE:BHP) Potash (NYSE:POT) Bid Opposed Because of Canpotex?

Although there has been increasing concern over the control of the potash industry by a couple of major players, including Canpotex and Belarusian Potash, it's puzzling as to why there hasn't been more support for BHP's (NYSE:BHP) bid for Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), as they've stated they want to pull out of the monopoly once the existing agreements expire.

That raised a firestorm in Canada and among other Canpotex members Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), who have been controlling prices for a long time.

You would think there would be a rally on behalf of BHP. Some think BHP would stay in Canpotex once they controlled Potash, but I don't think so.

In the past BHP has been known for moving according to market conditions of supply and demand and not holding back in order to push up the price of potash to protect margins and earnings.

So farmers and consumers would strongly benefit from a BHP takeover of Potash, and hopefully this part of the story will get out more before the foolish and irresponsible leaders of Potash go the Chinese to protect them from the BHP bid.

Terra Nitrogen, (NYSE:TNH), CF Industries (NYSE:CF), Syngenta and Higher Corn Prices

Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE:TNH), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) and Syngenta AG (NYSE:SYT) all moved up strongly on Monday as the market digested the lower estimates related to corn, soybeans and wheat, and especially corn and soybeans, whose estimates were lowered by over 20 percent each.

CF Industries and Terra were both up over three percent, while Syngenta moved up over 1 percent on the day.

Much of the agriculture sector increased in share price on Monday, including most farming equipment makers, fertilizer companies and some seed companies, including Monsanto (NYSE:MON).

Larger fertilizer companies like Potash (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) and Agrium (NYSE:AGU) went positive, all up over 1.5 percent, with Agrium finishing up over 2.3 percent.

Syngenta AG moved up at the levels of Potash and Mosaic, closing the day at $53.81, up $0.72, or 1.36 percent. Terra Nitrogen closed the session at $106.52, rising $3.12, or 3.02 percent. CF Industries ended the day at $113.45, gaining $3.55, or 3.23 percent.