Saturday, January 23, 2016

Would Saudi Aramco IPO Make Sense?

A number of variables would determine its attraction to investors, including the stock exchange or exchanges it would be listed on. That this confirms about the oil market and the price of oil.

In a recent interview with 'The Economist,' Saudi Arabian deputy crown prince Muhammad bin Salman said one of the things he's taking into consideration as a way to relieve the financial burden on the government from an expected prolonged period of low oil prices, is to go the IPO route with state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco.

Not only is it the most valuable oil or energy company in the world, it's probably the valuable company in the world too. We'll look at the implications of this to investors if it does go this route. Meanwhile, it's worth mentioning it confirms my thesis that Saudi Arabia knows the price of oil will remain subdued for a prolonged period. With the emergence of shale oil competitors, it will inevitably come to the place it will lose global market share.

One thing to keep in mind is the demand for oil, over time, should increase, which means the size of the market will grow with it. That will shrink the market share of Saudi Aramco on that basis, assuming it doesn't have a lot more supply it can release.

more on whether or not Saudi Aramco IPO would make sense