Monday, February 4, 2013

Mohr Sees Strong Commodity Growth, Weaker Gold

In the near term Scotiabank’s commodity market specialist, Patricia Mohr, sees commodities in general doing very well, with gold going through a consolidation period, moving up to $1,725 an ounce in 2013.

Over the longer haul, Mohr sees commodities to continue rising based upon growth in emerging markets. Of particular note for Mohr is the potential growth of automobile ownership in Asia, specifically in China, where only about 80 in 1,000 people own vehicles at this time.

She also like fertilizer companies because of farmers holding back on buying fertilizers recently. With food prices higher and margins widening, farmers should have a positive outlook going forward, which should result in higher demand for potash especially.

Another area that looks promising is uranium, which should enjoy strong growth as demand continues to rise, even though the media reports only part of the story. While there have in fact been some cutbacks in production in some countries for political expediency, they simply make it up by importing uranium for other countries, allowing the illusory policies to stay in place, distorting the fact that uranium demand will continue to grow.

Also of note with uranium is the program instituted by the U.S. and Russia dubbed Megatonnes to Megawatts. That will result in close to 24 million pounds of U308 no longer in the market, affecting supply.

Mohr sees uranium climbing to as high as $65 a pound by the middle of the decade, up from the $40s range it has been in lately.

As for copper, that is seen by Mohr as slowly dropping from the $3.50 she sees in 2013, to about $3 a pound over the longer term. Increased mine capacity is her reasoning there.


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