Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Will Potash (NYSE:POT) be Saved by Canadian Pension Funds from BHP (NYSE:BHP) Bid?

It's not a surprise that Canadian pension funds have been linked to a possible bid for Potash Corp (NYSE:POT) in order to keep BHP Billiton(NYSE:BHP) from taking over the fertilizer giant, as the rumor has been circulating for at least a couple of weeks.

What is interesting, is the admission, according to unnamed sources cited by the Globe and Mail, that it is all based on nationalism rather than the terms of the deal.

This is why some of the reasoning behind the opposition of Potash toward the bid never really made any sense. This is just the first time that I've seen that an admission was made that it wasn't based on the terms of the deal or potential loss of tax revenue, but on losing control to a company outside of Canada.

One of the most surprising things that could happen with all of this if the alleged plan to acquire about 30 percent of Potash by the pension funds would actually materialize. If it did, it would effectively block being taken over by BHP.

The sources said Saskatchewan government didn't want to see Potash taken over by a foreign company, and the work of nationalists behind the scenes who feel even stronger.

One odd part of the story is the inclusion of China investment as part of successfully making the bid. Although China would only hold part of the company via the partnership, it would still be a significant portion.

What is different is it wouldn't be a controlling portion like BHP will have if they succeed.

The source of the story said the possibility of this becoming a reality is very low.

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