Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Will Monsanto (NYSE:MON) Be Best Stock of 2011 after Worst of 2010?

Monsanto (NYSE:MON) has been beat up so much this year that the question of whether or not it may be the worst stock of 2010 has been proffered by some commentators and analysts.

While there has been some market factors involved with the poor performance of the stock, such as disappointing results from it SmartStax corn, its sugar beets being put on hold be a judge until more thorough research has been performed, prices too high in a recessionary environment, and the appearance of, and in some cases, actions, showing there is an arrogance there that the company needs to rein in. One being suing farmers who had seed from neighboring farms of Monsanto coming on their land and Monsanto saying they should have to pay for them.

There has also been some inroads into the market share of some Monsanto seeds by competitor DuPont (NYSE:DD), and of course the loss of patents and market share to products now being offered at commodity prices.

Even with all that stuff that sound ominous, there are numerous other products which make Monsanto still the giant in the field, with little in the way of competition which will knock them out of that spot in the short- or mid-term. It is there's to hold onto if they want to remain the market leader.

What that leads to is their performance this year. While some have openly wondered why Monsanto is performing as they are, they are largely technical analysts who don't understand the public relations side, or simply ignore it.

In today's digital media world, those who don't approve of genetically modified seed and other Monsanto products, can make a lot of noise beyond their numbers to give the appearance of a groundswell of opposition, when in reality it's more noise than a real grass roots uprising.

That's not to say opposition isn't real and effective, just that it's not as big as it seems, and it doesn't stop Monsanto from opening up new markets.

With a company like Monsanto an investor must look past the news that will always be there and look at their pipeline and competitive advantage.

In other words, don't read media stories and assume because there is controversy that the company is doing poorly. Look at their actual performance and whether they're valued closed to what they should be.

For 2010 Monsanto is down over 33 percent, which isn't a reflection of their actual or future performance. While the SmartStax corn seed is important and a part of the reason for such negative share performance. It is because it was considered the major engine of growth in the short-term of the company.

It's not that it isn't a good product, but it hasn't measured up to expectations, and the company has rightly paid the price for it. But it seems there may have been far too much focus on that, by both the company and investors, so the company took a big hit when results showed it wasn't up to par.

But in a relatively short time the price of corn has skyrocketed because of corn yields being lower than expected, so the reasons farmers were disgruntled and pulling back before, which related to whether or not paying the higher price was worth the yield, are pretty much gone with the higher corn prices, and Monsanto could generate higher sales for the spring planting because of that.

New markets are also opening up via approval of Monsanto products, especially in Latin America markets; specifically Brazil and Argentina. Once they gain approval to sell products overseas, Brazil will plant large amounts of Monsanto seed to meet the demand.

The bottom line is Monsanto is so out of favor that it's due for a rebound, and although there are obvious challenges, the underlying fundamentals are still in place. And when they do take off, they could soar.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

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GB