Alcoa (NYSE:AA) says they see demand for aluminum growing at a 6 percent clip over the next 10 years, and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), via their Alcan unit, estimates aluminum growing at 5.3 percent over the next decade.
Rio said at the pace of their aluminum demand projections, aluminum production will have to grow by about 66 percent to meet the growing demand.
Alcan sees supply plunging by 27 million metric tons annually, as measured against demand, if new smelters aren't brought online by 2020.
For Alcoa, over the next year the believe aluminum consumption will increase by about 13 percent.
There have been mixed views on aluminum supply and demand, as some commentators and analysts have said they think aluminum supply will be ample going forward.
Much will depend, as with most things at this time, one whether or not the global economy comes out of the recession, especially the western world.
But even if the West doesn't, demand from Brazil, Russia, India and China will drive the demand side of the aluminum equation.
Another unknown is how much aluminum ETFs will factor in. As the first ones are being developed now, and a new aluminum market based on physical storage is emerging, which is unknown as to how much that will affect aluminum demand.
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