Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Should We Worry About Gold Now?

A growing number of investors, individual and institutional, have started to get worried about whether or not gold is in bubble territory.

There is nothing to justify those fears, as until the reasons for such strong support for gold are over, gold has every reason to continue on its upward climb, and it will.

That's not to say there won't be any corrections, as there is sure to be one on the horizon sometime soon, probably after a season of time which gold incrementally continues to move up to a point where profits are taken and some type of temporary, supposed positive economic news from somewhere helps the selling along.

But there is nothing in the short term, or mid-term for that matter, that suggests gold is too high, and will come plummeting down to earth.

Even if there was a gold correction stronger than expected, that does nothing to change the underlying fundamentals, and it'll again resume its climb until those things change.

Some of those fundamentals include inflation, deficits, weak U.S. dollar, weak global economy and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. And even if there is deflation, it would be another reason to own gold.

All these solid reasons are making some investors nervous, as it sounds like too solid of a case, and too predictable.

It's hard to see anything short term which could stop the rise of gold, and that is also worrying to a growing number of people.

It seems the fundamentals supporting gold prices are strong, and there is nothing that could perceivably happen that will change that in any surprising way.

Now over the long term, whenever interest rates are increased again, along with a real economic recovery, that would be a time to seriously look at selling gold.

A secondary, but easy to identify possibility, would be if the regular man on the street starts to irrationally invest in gold without knowing why, other than his friend or neighbor is going it.

In that case, even the reason for high gold prices could be outrun by their exuberance, and bring gold to very high levels which couldn't even in our economic environment be justified.

But again, that won't matter in the long run, as until the fundamentals are no longer in place, gold prices will rise, even if there are significant peaks and valleys along the way.

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