Tuesday, August 24, 2010

First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), Suntech (NYSE:STP), Yingli (NYSE:YGE), Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL): Long Struggle Ahead

Major public solar energy companies like First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE:STP), Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), and their shareholders, are in for a long, difficult journey, as things could get much worse before they get better, if better can even be defined in the current economic environment.

Even when you take these types of politically correct companies and present them in the most positive light, like many commentators like to do, in the end it's one of the last industries you want to be in if you're looking at making money or conserving your capital.

A lot is being made about some of these companies starting to pare down costs, which is a good thing, but they should have been doing this for a long time, as the cost is high and margins low.

That means the wealthier people in the best of times are the consumers of this energy, and when the economy gives a big hiccup like it has been, with little positive outlook in the near future, solar is looked upon as exotic, rather than alternative energy, and those who invest as a support to the industry aren't going to lose their capital in that pursuit.

Even the companies, when they enjoy solid margins, like Yingli did recently, still lost money, as they paid down debt and lost on derivatives.

When you have the growing revenue like these companies have, and they continue to lose money, it's obvious the industry isn't sustainable, and like it or not, everyone needs to take a second look at it, and very carefully at that.

Talk of increased demand is meaningless if the supply of that demand isn't profitable. After all, anyone can sell a product at a loss. How hard is that?

No matter how some supporters want to spin the industry, it's dead in the water right now, and even though most of the above companies are going to push out revenue in an attempt to look like they're growing, the bottom line is still the bottom line, and if they can't do it at a profit, they're in for a long struggle, if they survive at all.

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