JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) recently slashed their price target on BP (NYSE:BP) to $44.51 a share, a plunge of 26 percent.
Analyst Fred Lucas presented 11 things BP would have to do in order to meet even what they seem to think at this time is the best case scenario.
To "unlock this value," Lucas identified the following a "eleven triggers that we believe could help" do that "over the next six months":
(1) containing more of the leak at surface
(2) more accurate flow estimates
(3) stopping the leak at source, permanently
(4) debt market access
(5) second-quarter results
(6) material asset sales
(7) compensation fund asset collateral valuation
(8) a discernible pattern to compensation claims
(9) any evidence of U.S. political support for BP as claims from the compensation fund begin in the second half
(10) any indications that BP is not the only party responsible for this event
(11) evidence that BP's ability to capture new growth opportunities is not compromised," the analyst said.
Over half of these appear to be out of the hands of BP, which is a very weak position to be in.
If the first three are taken care of though, which BP does have some power over, the rest would be much more apt to follow, so they obviously much do that in order to have a chance at the rest.
It will probably be at least a month and a half, at best, before the oil leak has a chance to be plugged permanently, so the company will probably be all over the place as far as share price and market value until some sort of predictability enters the narrative.
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