Friday, June 11, 2010

BP (NYSE:BP): Oil Estimates Uncertain

Every day it seems another person called a scientist claims the amount of oil spilling into the gulf from the BP (NYSE:BP) spill is more than before. Somehow that is supposed to mean something, although I fail to understand what.

Even the scientists making the claims aren't sure as the latest estimates are from 20,000 to 40,000 barrels. They even attempt to make these seem like it's much higher than the estimates of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels the government maintained before.

In other words, if the low end is 20,000, which is part of the new numbers being thrown around, it's not really and different than the 19,000 barrels already asserted as a possibility.

If these scientists are so sure, then why don't they be more specific? They're just throwing out numbers, and BP is correct when they say there's simply no way of knowing how much is spilling into the ocean.

The U.S. government evidently wants these numbers upwardly revised to battle the growing opposition to the way they've talked about and handled the crisis, which is growing into a diplomatic row with Britain and its people.

6 comments:

burrock said...

Not knowing the estimates is bogus. If the Govt. asked for documents concerning the oil well such as daily barrels pumped or produced. This will give an estimate of how much oil is actually leaking. If BP was Producing 50,000 barrels a day in March that means the potential spill is 50,000 barrels a day. The production paper work is key if BP hasnt altered or destroyed it yet.

jademonki said...

burrock...

your idea is not apples to apples. pumping controlled oil versus oil spewing out bypassing controls, flow meters, valves etc... is most likely much higher quantities. like drinking a glass of water versus dumping it in your face. One takes a minute while the other empties the glass in one second.

Anonymous said...

Everyone just need to calm down. BP generates $30 - $40 Billion a year in profits, they have the money to clean this up. Crippling this company doesn't help anybody, even if this disaster takes $40 billion to fix BP can generate this in a little over a year and be done with it. The government, scientists, local officials and protesters need to take a xanax and chill out.

Anonymous said...

A lot of misconceptions here. The well was not in production, they were rushing to put it in to pruduction when it blew up, so there aren't any pre blowout numbers to look at. And BP doesn't make 40 billion a year, it makes 10 billion a year. I estimate if it were to cap the well and stop the leaking right now their liability would be over 10 billion, and they will be lucky to stop it in august (research the average # of tries to hit a well in this type of scenario).

If their liability is 40 billion, and you factor in the reduced income they will get after implimenting new safety measures, your looking at a company that will never return to it's former glory.

It's not that I think they deserve it any more than any other wreckless irresponsible oil company (I'm betting most are), but evidence so far points at them. The other companies will step in after this and hopefully be more careful in the future.

Anonymous said...

Ahh, I'm sorry I meant to say operating income and not $40 Billion in profits. But you are wrong as well since 2005 BP has averaged net income of close to $20 Billion double your $10 Billion figure and half my $40 Billion mistake. Still even if they hit $40 Billion in costs which is a completely made up and astronomical figure it would only take them 2 years to recover and be back to business as usual.

Anonymous said...

Exxon is the most profitable company in the world and they went through the whole exxon valdez disaster not that long ago. To say they will never return is just short sighted.