Saturday, May 29, 2010

Aftermath if BP (NYSE:BP) "Top Kill" Doesn't Work

An important question emerges as BP (NYSE:BP) continues its attempt to "Top Kill" the leak in the Gulf of Mexico, and that is if the effort does fail overall, has it done something to slow down the flow of oil in the Gulf, or are we back where we started from before the Wednesday attempt?

The answer is vital if the effort does indeed prove to be a failure, because if there is at least a partial win by slowing down the flow of oil in a significant manner, it could give some relief all around as public and media pressure mounts concerning the situation.

If nothing else, there'll at least be a pop in the bubble of public perception and opinion if it does some good, and hope that the damage won't be as bad as it could and will be if the oil flow is as strong as it was before the try.

What will determine the next phase of media coverage and public concern is whether the oil leak becomes more of a trickle than a gusher.

Any significant slowdown will be considered a win by BP, and will ease things up a bit for them. If not, it's hard to tell where it'll all end up, as there's not much more anger and outcry that will grow than it is now, as it's reached a feverish pitch.

You also have the fatigue factor which could settle in, as people get tired of this type of negative story after prolonged exposure to it, and it'll slow down some no matter which way it goes.

Now that most people are aware of the circumstances and the stake involved, it's hard to tell what will happen after the Memorial Day weekend either way, as their minds drift to lost loved ones and enjoying the holiday.

People will be back to work and looking at their own challenges and problems with the concerns over the economy and jobs. That could mean the legs of this story are at their highest level now, and it could deflate going forward.

This doesn't change what needs to be done, but just an observation as to how long people can take in the catastrophe before they weary of it. I think that time is approaching, and hopefully we can get rid of the circus atmosphere and let BP and others do the work of stopping it, if they indeed fail this weekend.

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