Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Commodities | Cellulosic Ethanol the Answer?

Is cellulosic ethanol the answer to the alleged energy crisis? I don't think so. We already know ethanol made from corn has so many downsides that the idea of continuing to produce it, or even having industry based upon it is fooish at best, and reckless at worst.

Already the ethanol industry is self destructing as producers are falling by the wayside, as the news lets us know.

Ethynol stocks are a joke, and companies are all teetering on bankruptcy, if they aren't bankrupt already.

Power equipment like snowmobiles and chainsaws are being decimated by E10, and repair shops are full from the broken down machinery.

Stocks related to ethanol are also being crushed, and all the marketing schemes in the world aren't going to change that reality. Ethanol as an investment sucks, and there's no other way to put it.

As far as cellulosic ethanol goes, it's just another pipe dream that will fall along the wayside, as billions in taxpayers dollars are wasted on another ill advised biofuel obsession.

What cellulosic ethanol is made of is material that is in the majority of plant matter, which is the reason there was so much news on the subject, because it provides a unlimited amount of resources for the fuel.

Plant matter like rice straw, corn stalks, switch grass, wood chips and wheat are part of what could be used to make the biofuel.

The problem with cellulosic ethanol is the technology doesn't exist to mass produce it, and it will be an extremely expensive process to develop, making it less price friendly for consumers.

As the news of the ethanol debacle continues to come forth, we're finding more and more that the supposed bridge between corn ethanol and cellulosic ethanol is simply a myth. It's being used by those with vested interest in continuing to obtain funds from taxpayers for their pet projects to keep them going.

Even the former chair of the House Ag Committe in the USA admitted accidently that he doubts cellulosic ethanol will ever take off as a viable biofuel. So with corn ethanol being considered more and more dubious as a legitimate source of fuel and energy, it may be past time to shut down the ill advised investment and turn to other research and experiment to find real solutions to future energy needs.

Another practical problem with cellulosic ethanol is its difficulty in breaking down in contrast to corn ethanol. The reason is because starch in corn ethanol is much easier to break down and much cheaper to produce.

The truth is that there would be no ethanol producers, ethanol companies, ethanol stocks or ethanol investment if there wasn't the misguided "Renewable Fuel Standard" of the 2007 Energy Act, without which biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol and corn ethanol would have long faded away, and news of it would be absent.

Unfortunately, mainstream media loves ethanol in all its forms, and continues to ignorantly report on it as if it's the answer to energy and fuel problems. In reality the process and inputs are more of a problem that the solution it's trying to become.

Even politcians like those in Missouri are under fire for investing in ethanol companies to benefit from the tax supported industry. Sarah Steelman is bravely fighting not allowing them to profit from the windfall, as in the case of Show Me Ethanol.

This is ridiculous that in what would be considered insider trading and illegal in the private sector could be allowed in the public sector.

We hear about the scientific side of things in order to justify the money for research for ethanol. For example, with cellulosic ethanol, they say researchers are working on enzymes so they more less expensively produce the potential fuel.

The problem is that's a bunch of nonsense. It's meaningless. Researchers are working on it? What does that mean? It means there's no solution and its a bunch of smoke and mirrors as to its potential.

All of this is a governmental marketing scheme for ethanol, and it's ignorant. Try to use news outlets to do there marketing as they do, the government knows that the ethanol industry in general, and the cellulosic industry in particular, has no future. It's not going to happen.

The only people benefitting from this are the producers, investors, companies and repair shops, who are filled with snowmobiles, chainsaws and generators from the ethanol caused break downs.

One good thing about it all is those ethanol companies and investors thinking they were going to make a huge profit at the expense of taxpayers and users of the faulty biofuel, are now finding themselves losing a ton of money from the socialist program.

It doesn't matter what type of ethanol is being touted in the news, it isn't even a part of the answer going forward. Have all the conferences you want and strategy meetings, it doesn't work, and it's becoming more and more obvious the longer we're in it.

Before this debacle is over, we're going to see billions of taxpayers money flushed down the ethanol biofuel drain, as the mandate to produce 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022 will result in outrageous actions to attempt to make it happen, unless the 2007 Act mandate is rescinded; which it will have to be.

The mandate requires 15 billion gallons of biofuel from corn, and 2 billion from cellulosic sources. The news is that's not even going to be close to being able to be achieved.

Almost everyone concurs that to achieve the levels mandated by law, the tax credits to the companies involved would have to be jacked up to much higher levels to make it even close to being possible.

What's the conclusion? Drop the program altogether. It's absolutely unattainable, and to continue on the course is reckless.

Not only is corn ethanol not the answer, but cellulosic ethanol is even less of an answer. It's far past time to simply acknowledge that reality.

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