Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Federal Reserve Overnight Rate Cut to 1 percent

Still trying to jumpstart the economy, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 1 percent. The federal funds rate cut is on overnight loans and what banks charge one another.

This is the second time in a month the fed has cut rates by half a percentage, as the month started off at 2 percent overnight lending rates, which was cut to 1.5 percent on October 8.

Commercial banks are expected to follow suit and cut their prime lending rates by half a point as well.

According to the Fed, they are willing to cut rates this low because economic conditions seem to indicate inflation will be contained. That assumption is probably unwarranted, yet the pressure to cut rates is why this event happened, not because it's good for the long term health of the economy.

Some are asserting it's the weakness in the market which is causing the fall in commodity prices, so this cut in rates is not risky. But that's only a small part of the picture. The reality is commodity prices have plunged because of the lack of credit, and large funds having to sell their positions in order to access cash.

That, more than anything else, is the reason for the drop in commodity prices, not the underlying fundamentals.

Remember that when inflation rears its ugly head again in response to government printing more money and lowering lending rates.

This is why the commodity bull market will extend longer than thought, as this temporary credit squeeze will eventually run its course and the demand from emerging countries for commodities continue to grow.

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